The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models

This paper demonstrates that long-term forward interest rates in the U.S. often react considerably to surprises in macroeconomic data releases and monetary policy announcements. This behavior is in contrast to the prediction of many macroeconomic models, in which the long-run properties of the economy are assumed to be time-invariant and perfectly known by all economic agents: Under those assumptions, the shocks we consider would have only transitory effects on short-term interest rates, and hence would not generate large responses in forward rates. Our empirical findings suggest that private agents adjust their expectations of the long-run inflation rate in response to macroeconomic and monetary policy surprises. We present an alternative model that captures this behavior. Consistent with our hypothesis, forward rates derived from inflation-indexed Treasury debt show little sensitivity to these shocks, indicating that the response of nominal forward rates is mostly driven by inflation compensation. In addition, we find that in the U.K., where the long-run inflation target is known by the private sector, long-term forward rates have demonstrated little excess sensitivity since the Bank of England achieved independence in mid-1997.

Influence of Visual Feedback On Dynamic Balance Control in Chronic Stroke Survivors

Chronic stroke survivors have an increased incidence of falls during walking, suggesting changes in dynamic balance control post-stroke. Despite this increased incidence of falls during walking, balance control is often studied only in standing. The purpose of this study was to quantify deficits in dynamic balance control during walking, and to evaluate the influence of visual feedback on this control in stroke survivors. Ten individuals with chronic stroke, and ten neurologically intact individuals participated in this study. Walking performance was assessed while participants walked on an instrumented split-belt treadmill with different types of visual feedback. Dynamic balance control was quantified using both the extent of center of mass (COM) movement in the frontal plane over a gait cycle (COM sway), and base of support (step width). Stroke survivors walked with larger COM sway and wider step widths compared to controls. Despite these baseline differences, both groups walked with a similar ratio of step width to COM sway (SW/COM). Providing a stationary target with a laser reference of body movement reduced COM sway only in the stroke group, indicating that visual feedback of sway alters dynamic balance control post-stroke. These results demonstrate that stroke survivors attempt to maintain a similar ratio of step width to COM movement, and visual cues can be used to help control COM movement during walking post-stroke

Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements

We investigate the effects of U.S. monetary policy on asset prices using a high-frequency event-study analysis. We test whether these effects are adequately captured by a single factor-changes in the federal funds rate target - and find that they are not. Instead, we find that two factors are required. These factors have a structural interpretation as a "current federal funds rate target" factor and a "future path of policy" factor, with the latter closely associated with Federal Open Market Committee statements.We measure the effects of these two factors on bond yields and stock prices using a new intraday data set going back to 1990. According to our estimates, both monetary policy actions and statements have important but differing effects on asset prices, with statements having a much greater impact on longer-term Treasury yields.Monetary Policy; Asset Prices; Factor Analysis; Multi-dimensional Policy

Progress toward a Soft X-ray Polarimeter

We are developing instrumentation for a telescope design capable of measuring linear X-ray polarization over a broad-band using conventional spectroscopic optics. Multilayer-coated mirrors are key to this approach, being used as Bragg reflectors at the Brewster angle. By laterally grading the multilayer mirrors and matching to the dispersion of a spectrometer, one may take advantage of high multilayer reflectivities and achieve modulation factors over 50% over the entire 0.2-0.8 keV band. We present progress on laboratory work to demonstrate the capabilities of an existing laterally graded multilayer coated mirror pair. We also present plans for a suborbital rocket experiment designed to detect a polarization level of 12-17% for an active galactic nucleus in the 0.1-1.0 keV band.Comment: 11 pages, 12 figures, to appear in the proceedings of the SPIE, volume 8861, on Optics for EUV, X-Ray, and Gamma-Ray Astronom

A Behavioral Confirmation and Reduction of the Natural versus Synthetic Drug Bias

Research reveals a biased preference for natural versus synthetic drugs; however, this research is based upon self-report and has not examined ways to reduce the bias. We examined these issues in five studies involving 1,125 participants. In a Pilot Study (N = 110), participants rated the term natural to be more positive than the term synthetic, which reveals a default natural-is-better belief. In Studies 1 (N = 109) and 2 (N = 100), after a supposed personality study, participants were offered a thank you “gift” of a natural or synthetic pain reliever. Approximately 86% (Study 1) and 93% (Study 2) of participants chose the natural versus synthetic pain reliever, which provide a behavioral choice confirmation of the natural drug bias. In Studies 3 (N = 350) and 4 (N = 356), participants were randomly assigned to a control or experimental condition and were asked to consider a scenario in which they had a medical issue requiring a natural versus synthetic drug. The experimental condition included a stronger (Study 3) or weaker (Study 4) rational appeal about the natural drug bias and a statement suggesting that natural and synthetic drugs can be good or bad depending upon the context. In both studies, the natural bias was reduced in the experimental condition, and perceived safety and effectiveness mediated this effect. Overall, these data indicate a bias for natural over synthetic drugs in preferences and behavioral choices, which might be reduced with a rational appeal

HPV Vaccine Discussions Between Medical Students and Standardized Patients

The vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) protectsindividuals from cancer by preventing HPV infection. This vaccination is recommended for people who are assigned male or female at birth. However, since these groups are often associated with different risks of HPV infection, there may be gaps in how effectively the vaccination is recommended to patients. We gathered data by viewing recordings of medical students taking histories from standardized patients. We recorded if and which vaccinations were discussed as the patients established primary care. We focused on discussions surrounding HPV vaccines and used discussions around influenza vaccines as a comparison. We recorded if and how each vaccine was recommended, suggested, or discouraged. We reviewed 83 patient encounters. Only61% of students explicitly discussed vaccinations.Within these discussions, students were more likely to recommend or suggest vaccinations against influenza (63%) than HPV (29%). Students discussed the HPV vaccine more frequently with patients who were assigned female (within 56% versus 21% of vaccine discussions) but were slightly more likely to recommend amongthe assigned male patients(80% vs 73%). Many students used ambivalent or suggestive language rather than clear recommendations that communicatedt he importance of vaccination. Targeting HPV vaccine discussions toward patientswho are assigned female at birth leaves a large portion of society at risk for infection and transmission of HPV. Misinformation around vaccinations has caused many people to distrust vaccines, so it is critical for physicians to develop communication skills to effectively discuss and explain vaccines to patients.https://ir.library.louisville.edu/uars/1062/thumbnail.jp

Combined ERP/fMRI Evidence for Early Word Recognition Effects in the Posterior Inferior Temporal Gyrus

Two brain regions with established roles in reading are the posterior middle temporal gyrus and the posterior fusiform gyrus. Lesion studies have also suggested that the region located between them, the posterior inferior temporal gyrus (pITG), plays a central role in word recognition. However, these lesion results could reflect disconnection effects since neuroimaging studies have not reported consistent lexicality effects in pITG. Here we tested whether these reported pITG lesion effects are due to disconnection effects or not using parallel ERP/fMRI studies. We predicted that the Recognition Potential (RP), a left-lateralized ERP negativity that peaks at about 200–250 ms, might be the electrophysiological correlate of pITG activity and that conditions that evoke the RP (perceptual degradation) might therefore also evoke pITG activity. In Experiment 1, twenty-three participants performed a lexical decision task (temporally flanked by supraliminal masks) while having high-density 129-channel ERP data collected. In Experiment 2, a separate group of fifteen participants underwent the same task while having fMRI data collected in a 3T scanner. Examination of the ERP data suggested that a canonical Recognition Potential effect was produced. The strongest corresponding effect in the fMRI data was in the vicinity of the pITG. In addition, results indicated stimulus-dependent functional connectivity between pITG and a region of the posterior fusiform gyrus near the visual word form area (VWFA) during word compared to nonword processing. These results provide convergent spatiotemporal evidence that the pITG contributes to early lexical access through interaction with the VWFA

EPR of Cu\u3csup\u3e2+\u3c/sup\u3e Prion Protein Constructs at 2 GHz Using the \u3cem\u3eg\u3c/em\u3e\u3csub\u3e⊥\u3c/sub\u3e Region to Characterize Nitrogen Ligation

A double octarepeat prion protein construct, which has two histidines, mixed with copper sulfate in a 3:2 molar ratio provides at most three imidazole ligands to each copper ion to form a square-planar Cu2+ complex. This work is concerned with identification of the fourth ligand. A new (to our knowledge) electron paramagnetic resonance method based on analysis of the intense features of the electron paramagnetic resonance spectrum in the g⊥ region at 2 GHz is introduced to distinguish between three and four nitrogen ligands. The methodology was established by studies of a model system consisting of histidine imidazole ligation to Cu2+. In this spectral region at 2 GHz (S-band), g-strain and broadening from the possible rhombic character of the Zeeman interaction are small. The most intense line is identified with the MI = +1/2 extra absorption peak. Spectral simulation demonstrated that this peak is insensitive to cupric Ax and Ay hyperfine interaction. The spectral region to the high-field side of this peak is uncluttered and suitable for analysis of nitrogen superhyperfine couplings to determine the number of nitrogens. The spectral region to the low-field side of the intense extra absorption peak in the g⊥ part of the spectrum is sensitive to the rhombic distortion parameters Ax and Ay. Application of the method to the prion protein system indicates that two species are present and that the dominant species contains four nitrogen ligands. A new loop-gap microwave resonator is described that contains ∼1 mL of frozen sample

Salivary testosterone measurement in women with and without polycystic ovary syndrome

Clinical and/or biochemical hyperandrogenism is one of the diagnostic criteria for PCOS. An evaluation of the role of salivary testosterone (salT) and androstenedione (salA) for the diagnosis of PCOS was undertaken in a cross sectional study involving 65 women without PCOS and 110 women with PCOS fulfilling all 3 diagnostic Rotterdam criteria. Serum and salivary androgen measurements were determined by LC-MS/MS. salT and salA were significantly elevated in PCOS compared to controls (P<001). No androgen marker was more predictive than another using ROC curves, but multiple logistic regression suggested salT was more predictive than free androgen index (FAI)(p<0.01). The combination of salT or FAI identified 100% of PCOS women. PCOS women with both biochemical and clinical hyperandrogenism as opposed to clinical hyperandrogenism alone showed a metabolic phenotype (p<0.05) and insulin resistance(p<0.001). PCOS patients with an isolated elevated FAI showed increased insulin resistance compared to those with an isolated salT(P<0.05). salT appeared to be at least as predictive as FAI for the diagnosis of the classical PCOS phenotype, and the combination of salT or FAI identified 100% of PCOS patients. This suggests that salT measurement by LC-MS/MS holds the promise of complementing existing laboratory tests as a means of assessing hyperandrogenemia