Contact tracing data from influenza A(H1N1)2009pdm.

<p>Black: Confirmed ILL; Light Gray: Probable ILL; Dark Gray: Australia A(H1N1) Data.</p

Means and Ranges of the Epidemic Lengths for each Simulation Scenario.

<p>There are 300 Epidemics Generated for each Scenario.</p><p>Means and Ranges of the Epidemic Lengths for each Simulation Scenario.</p

Summary of DIC-based Prior Selection for Simulated Outbreaks.

<p>Gray scale from dark to light: k = 5, k = 7, k = 10, k = 15, k = 20.</p

Dirichlet Prior Distributions for the Serial Interval for the Simulation Study.

<p>Dirichlet Prior Distributions for the Serial Interval for the Simulation Study.</p

Temporal variation in the mean effective reproductive number () of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in South Africa, June 15 to October 4, 2009 (method 3).

<p>Temporal variation in the mean effective reproductive number () of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in South Africa, June 15 to October 4, 2009 (method 3).</p

Distribution of the initial effective reproduction number (<i>R_t</i>) across 100 simulations for the pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 epidemic in South Africa, assuming known serial interval (SI) estimates derived from (A) confirmed secondary cases only (SI: 2.3 days) and (B) confirmed plus suspected secondary cases (SI: 2.7 days) in the transmission chain (method 2).

<p>Distribution of the initial effective reproduction number (<i>R_t</i>) across 100 simulations for the pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 epidemic in South Africa, assuming known serial interval (SI) estimates derived from (A) confirmed secondary cases only (SI: 2.3 days) and (B) confirmed plus suspected secondary cases (SI: 2.7 days) in the transmission chain (method 2).</p

Distribution of serial interval and initial effective reproductive number (<i>R_t</i>) across 100 simulations for the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 epidemic in South Africa using the likelihood-based simultaneous estimation method (method 1).

<p>Distribution of serial interval and initial effective reproductive number (<i>R_t</i>) across 100 simulations for the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 epidemic in South Africa using the likelihood-based simultaneous estimation method (method 1).</p

Observed lag-time between date of symptom onset and date of specimen collection, incidence rate ratio (IRR) and significance value of the covariates significant in the Poisson regression model.

a<p>Pooled p-value for province covariate.</p

Epidemic curve of laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 cases, South Africa, June 12 to September 30, 2009.

<p>Bars show original recorded data applying date of symptom onset where available (n = 758) and substitute by date of specimen collection where onset was unavailable (total n = 12,526). The line shows imputed data where date of symptom onset for missing case-based data was obtained by multiple imputations adjusted by provincial location of specimen collection and the occurrence of a case on a weekend day (n = 12,491).</p

Weekly* number of measles IgM positive cases: South Africa, 2009–2011.

<p>* Week calculated from date of specimen collection (n = 17 351), date received (n = 1 067) or date tested (n = 13).</p