An empirical study of liquidity and information effects of order flow on exchange rates

We propose a simple structural model of exchange rate determination which draws from the analytical framework recently proposed by Bacchetta and van Wincoop (2003) and allows us to disentangle the liquidity and information effects of order flow on exchange rates. We estimate this model employing an innovative transaction data-set that covers all direct foreign exchange transactions completed in the USD/EUR market via EBS and Reuters between August 2000 and January 2001. Our results indicate that the strong contemporaneous correlation between order flow and exchange rates is mostly due to liquidity effects. This result also appears to carry through to the four FX intervention events that appear in our sample. JEL Classification: D82, G14, G15Exchange Rate Dynamics, Foreign Exchange Micro Structure, order flow

Intraday patterns in FX returns and order flow

Using 10 years of high-frequency foreign exchange data, we present evidence of time-of-day effects in foreign exchange returns through a significant tendency for currencies to depreciate during local trading hours. We confirm this pattern across a range of currencies and find that, in the case of EUR/USD, it can form a simple, profitable trading strategy. We also find that this pattern is present in order flow and suggest that both patterns relate to the tendency of market participants to be net purchasers of foreign exchange in their own trading hours. Data from alternative sources appear to corroborate that interpretation.foreign exchange, microstructure, order flow, liquidity

Out in the cold? Iceland’s trade performance outside the EU

Although entering a currency union involves both costs and benefits, an increasing body of research is finding that the benefits – in terms of international trade creation – are remarkably large. For example, Rose (2000) suggests that countries can up to triple their trade by joining a currency union. If true the impact on trade, income and welfare should Iceland join EMU could be enormous. However, by focussing simply on EMU rather than the broad range of currency unions studied by Rose, we find that the trade impact of EMU is smaller – but still statistically significant and economically important. Our findings suggest that the Iceland's trade with other EMU countries could increase by about 60% and that the trade-to-GDP ratio could rise by 12 percentage points should Iceland join the EU and EMU. This trade boost could consequently raise GDP per capita by roughly 4%. These effects would be even larger if the three current EMU outs (Denmark, Sweden and the UK) were also to enter EMU.

Exchange Rate Policy in Small Rich Economies

We look at the exchange rate policy choices and outcomes for small rich economies. Small rich economies face significant policy challenges due to proportionately greater economic volatility than larger economies. These economies usually choose some form of fixed exchange rate regime, particularly in the very small economies where the per capita cost of independent monetary policy is relatively high. When such countries do choose a free or managed floating regime, they appear to derive no benefit from those regimes; their exchange rate volatility seems to rise without any significant change in fundamental economic volatility. Thus, for these countries, floating exchange rates seem to create problems for policy makers without solving any.

Wechselkurseffekte der Einführung von Euro-Bargeld

Die Wechselkurseffekte, die von der Einführung des Euro-Bargeldes ausgehen und im Beitrag von Hans-Werner Sinn und Frank Westermann dargestellt wurden, werden von Francis Breedon und Francesca Fomasri, Lehmann Brothers, empirisch untermauert. Sie zeigen, dass der Rückgang der DM-Bargeldnachfrage eine bemerkenswerte Korrelation mit der Abwertung des Euro ausweist.Wechselkurs; Geldumlauf; Euro; D-Mark

Exchange Rate Policy in Small Rich Economies

We look at the exchange rate policy choices and outcomes for small rich economies. Small rich economies face significant policy challenges due to proportionately greater economic volatility than larger economies. These economies usually choose some form of fixed exchange rate regime, particularly in the very small economies where the per capita cost of independent monetary policy is relatively high. When such countries do choose a free or managed floating regime, they appear to derive no benefit from those regimes; their exchange rate volatility seems to rise without any significant change in fundamental economic volatility. Thus, for these countries, floating exchange rates seem to create problems for policy makers without solving any.Small economies, Exchange rate regimes

Judgment day: algorithmic trading around the Swiss Franc cap removal

A key issue for decentralised markets like FX is how the market responds to extreme situations. Using data on FX transactions with a precise identification of Algorithmic trading (AT), we find that AT, broadly defined, appears to have contributed to the deterioration of market quality following the removal of the cap on the Swiss franc on 15 January 2015 by withdrawing liquidity and generating uninformative volatility. We also find that the Swiss National Bank, after initially stepping aside, played an important role, though more by signalling rather than trading. This perhaps explains why human trading – that could most easily interpret those signals – was important in stabilising the market

On the Transactions Costs of UK Quantitative Easing

Most quantitative easing programmes primarily involve central banks acquiring government liabilities in return for central bank reserves. In all cases this process is undertaken by purchasing these liabilities from private sector intermediaries rather than directly from the government. This paper estimates the cost of this round-trip transaction – government issuance of liabilities and central bank purchases of those liabilities in the secondary market – for the UK. I estimate that this cost amounts to about 0.5% of the total value of QE (over £1.8 billion in my sample). I also find some evidence that this figure is inflated by the unusual design of UK QE operations