Deadly Doves: Liberal Nationalism and the Democratic Peace in the Soviet Successor States

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146804/1/0020-8833.00049.pd

Is There a Democracy–Civil Society Paradox in Global Environmental Governance?

Civil society is commonly assumed to have a positive effect on international cooperation. This paper sheds light on one important facet of this assumption: we examine the impact of environmental non-governmental organizations (ENGOs) on ratification behavior of countries vis-à-vis international environmental agreements (IEAs). The main argument of the paper focuses on a “democracy-civil society paradox”: although ENGOs have a positive effect on ratification of IEAs on average, this effect decreases with increasing levels of democracy. This argument is counter-intuitive and appears paradoxical because democracy is generally associated both with a more active civil society and more international cooperation. The reasons for this hypothesized effect pertain to public demand for environmental public goods provision, government incentives, and problems of collective action among ENGOs. To test the net effect of ENGOs on countries' ratification behavior, the paper uses a new dataset on ENGOs in the time-period 1973–2006. The results offer strong support for the presumed democracy–civil society paradox. </jats:p

International Nonregimes: A Research Agenda1

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146934/1/j.1468-2486.2007.00672.x.pd

Boolean logit and probit in Stata

This paper introduces new statistical models, Boolean logit and probit, that allow researchers to model binary outcomes as the results of Boolean interactions among independent causal processes. Each process (or “causal path”) is modeled as the unobserved outcome in a standard logit or probit equation, and the dependent variable is modeled as the observed product of their Boolean interaction. Up to five causal paths can be modeled, in any combination—A and B and C produce Y, A and (B or [C and D]) produce Y, etc

Replication data for: Causal Complexity & the Study of Politics

Theories that posit complex causation, or multiple causal paths, pervade the study of politics but have yet to find accurate statistical expression. To remedy this situation I derive new econometric procedures, Boolean probit and logit, based on the logic of complexity. The solution provides an answer to a puzzle in the rational deterrence literature: the divergence between theory and case-study findings, on the one hand, and the findings of quantitative studies, on the other, on the issue of the role of capabilities and willingness in the initiation of disputes. It also makes the case that different methodological traditions, rather than settling into "separate but equal" status, can instead inform and enrich one another

Hypothesis Testing and Multiplicative Interaction Terms

When a statistical equation incorporates a multiplicative term in an attempt to model interaction effects, the statistical significance of the lower-order coefficients is largely useless for the typical purposes of hypothesis testing. This fact remains largely unappreciated in political science, however. This brief article explains this point, provides examples, and offers some suggestions for more meaningful interpretation.I am grateful to Tim McDaniel, Anne Sartori, and Beth Simmons for comments on a previous draft.

Boolean logit and probit in Stata

This paper introduces new statistical models, Boolean logit and probit, that allow researchers to model binary outcomes as the results of Boolean interactions among independent causal processes. Each process (or 'causal path') is modeled as the unobserved outcome in a standard logit or probit equation, and the dependent variable is modeled as the observed product of their Boolean interaction. Up to five causal paths can be modeled, in any combination: A and B and C produce Y, A and (B or [C and D]) produce Y, etc. Copyright 2004 by StataCorp LP.mlboolean, dichotomous dependent variable, Boolean, logit, probit, multiple causal paths, complexity, random utility