DO THE PHASES OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE DIE OF OLD AGE?

The paper re-examines the issue of duration dependence in the Australian classical and growth business cycles in light of the somewhat surprising results obtained recently by Cashin and Ouliaris (2004). In so doing the authors use the multinomial logit regime switching modelling approach of Layton and Smith (2003). The paper also represents an extension of the earlier work on the issue undertaken by Bodman (1998); the key extensions being that the issue is framed within an explicit established business cycle chronology, a leading index is also included within the analysis, and the growth cycle, in addition to the classical cycle, is considered. Strong evidence of duration dependence is found for periods of recession within the classical cycle and for both phases of the growth cycle. Moderate evidence of duration dependency is also found for periods of classical cycle expansion. However, the evidence in this regard is significantly reduced once movements in the leading index are included in the analysis with its movements exhibiting strong power in predicting the termination of classical business cycle expansions. For growth cycles, duration dependence symmetry is found across both phases of the cycle. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd/University of Adelaide and Flinders University 2005..

Key Features of Australian Business Cycles

This paper identifies and describes the key features of Australian business cycles during the period 1959-2002. In particular, we identify the chronologies in Australia's classical cycle (expansions and contractions in the level of output) and growth cycle (periods of above-trend and below-trend rates of economic growth). We find that while there are large asymmetries in the duration and amplitude of phases in Australia's classical cycle, on both measures the Australian growth cycle is much more symmetric. Further, our results indicate that over the sample period Australian (filtered) output and prices have moved in a counter-cyclical fashion, suggesting a dominance of shocks to aggregate supply affecting the Australian economy. Copyright 2004 University of Adelaide and Flinders University of South Australia and Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd..

Substitution therapy for heroin addiction

Substitution treatment for heroin addiction, defined here as maintenance prescribing of opioid agonist drugs to opioid dependent subjects, has increased in the last decade. The recent history of substitution treatment in five countries--Canada, the U.K., Australia, Israel, and France--is reviewed. In all five countries, the critical issues around substitution treatment are similar. The first key issue concerns the balance between making treatment accessible and attractive, and minimizing diversion to the black market. The second issue concerns the role of primary health care in delivering MMT. In general, there has been increasing involvement of primary health care, with training and support for practitioners. However, there remains uncertainty and official ambivalence over whether treatment should be restricted to specialist clinics and practitioners, or available through primary care. Most importantly, underlying these issues is the problem of stigma being associated with both addiction, and with substitution treatment. The underlying problem that treatment is often at odds with community values places enormous strains on substitution treatment, and makes the treatment system vulnerable to shifting community support and abrupt, politically-driven changes in policy