Coextinctions dominate future vertebrate losses from climate and land use change

Although theory identifies coextinctions as a main driver of biodiversity loss, their role at the planetary scale has yet to be estimated. We subjected a global model of interconnected terrestrial vertebrate food webs to future (2020-2100) climate and land-use changes. We predict a 17.6% (+/- 0.16% SE) average reduction of local verte-brate diversity globally by 2100, with coextinctions increasing the effect of primary extinctions by 184.2% (+/- 10.9% SE) on average under an intermediate emissions scenario. Communities will lose up to a half of ecological interactions, thus reducing trophic complexity, network connectance, and community resilience. The model reveals that the extreme toll of global change for vertebrate diversity might be of secondary importance com-pared to the damages to ecological network structure.Peer reviewe

Predicting the Timing and Magnitude of Tropical Mosquito Population Peaks for Maximizing Control Efficiency

The transmission of mosquito-borne diseases is strongly linked to the abundance of the host vector. Identifying the environmental and biological precursors which herald the onset of peaks in mosquito abundance would give health and land-use managers the capacity to predict the timing and distribution of the most efficient and cost-effective mosquito control. We analysed a 15-year time series of monthly abundance of Aedes vigilax, a tropical mosquito species from northern Australia, to determine periodicity and drivers of population peaks (high-density outbreaks). Two sets of density-dependent models were used to examine the correlation between mosquito abundance peaks and the environmental drivers of peaks or troughs (low-density periods). The seasonal peaks of reproduction (r) and abundance () occur at the beginning of September and early November, respectively. The combination of low mosquito abundance and a low frequency of a high tide exceeding 7 m in the previous low-abundance (trough) period were the most parsimonious predictors of a peak's magnitude, with this model explaining over 50% of the deviance in . Model weights, estimated using AICc, were also relatively high for those including monthly maximum tide height, monthly accumulated tide height or total rainfall per month in the trough, with high values in the trough correlating negatively with the onset of a high-abundance peak. These findings illustrate that basic environmental monitoring data can be coupled with relatively simple density feedback models to predict the timing and magnitude of mosquito abundance peaks. Decision-makers can use these methods to determine optimal levels of control (i.e., least-cost measures yielding the largest decline in mosquito abundance) and so reduce the risk of disease outbreaks in human populations

Juvenile southern elephant seals exhibit seasonal differences in energetic requirements and use of lipids and protein stores

Growing juvenile animals undergo many morphological, physiological, and behavioural changes that influence their energetic requirements, patterns of energy use, and ultimately, their survival and reproductive success. We examined changes in mass loss and body composition of juvenile southern elephant seals (1- and 2-yr-olds) during their two annual haul-outs. At the start and end of the midyear and molt haul-outs, we caught, weighed, and measured 41 and 14 seals, respectively. We measured blubber depth using ultrasound to estimate body composition ( lean and adipose tissue mass). Using energy densities of the adipose and lean tissue, we calculated total, lean, and adipose mass changes and energy expenditure. While molting, juvenile seals used more energy than during the midyear, which is related to the increased use of lean tissue for hair and skin regeneration. The amount of energy used increases with mass as individuals mature. We found sexual differences in energy use where females retained greater fat reserves than males by utilizing more lean tissue. These differences are most likely related to haul-out function and behavior, growth, and earlier development of females toward sexual maturity

Evaluating the Relative Environmental Impact of Countries

Environmental protection is critical to maintain ecosystem services essential for human well-being. It is important to be able to rank countries by their environmental impact so that poor performers as well as policy ‘models’ can be identified. We provide novel metrics of country-specific environmental impact ranks – one proportional to total resource availability per country and an absolute (total) measure of impact – that explicitly avoid incorporating confounding human health or economic indicators. Our rankings are based on natural forest loss, habitat conversion, marine captures, fertilizer use, water pollution, carbon emissions and species threat, although many other variables were excluded due to a lack of country-specific data. Of 228 countries considered, 179 (proportional) and 171 (absolute) had sufficient data for correlations. The proportional index ranked Singapore, Korea, Qatar, Kuwait, Japan, Thailand, Bahrain, Malaysia, Philippines and Netherlands as having the highest proportional environmental impact, whereas Brazil, USA, China, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, India, Russia, Australia and Peru had the highest absolute impact (i.e., total resource use, emissions and species threatened). Proportional and absolute environmental impact ranks were correlated, with mainly Asian countries having both high proportional and absolute impact. Despite weak concordance among the drivers of environmental impact, countries often perform poorly for different reasons. We found no evidence to support the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis of a non-linear relationship between impact and per capita wealth, although there was a weak reduction in environmental impact as per capita wealth increases. Using structural equation models to account for cross-correlation, we found that increasing wealth was the most important driver of environmental impact. Our results show that the global community not only has to encourage better environmental performance in less-developed countries, especially those in Asia, there is also a requirement to focus on the development of environmentally friendly practices in wealthier countries

ECOLOGICAL-ECONOMIC MODELS OF SUSTAINABLE HARVEST FOR AN ENDANGERED BUT EXOTIC MEGAHERBIVORE IN NORTHERN AUSTRALIA

ABSTRACT. How can one manage wildlife under a suite of competing values? In isolation, the ecological economics of native wildlife harvest, threatened species conservation and control of exotic species are all well established sub-disciplines of wildlife management. However, the wild banteng (Bos javanicus) population of northern Australia represents an interesting combination of these aspirations. A native bovid of Southeast Asia now 'endangered' in its native range, banteng were introduced into northern Australia in 1849. Today, a population of 8,000 10,000 resides on one small, isolated peninsula in western Arnhem Land, Northern Territory and is harvested by both recreational (trophy) and aboriginal subsistence hunters. Indigenous, industry and conservationist stakeholders differ in their requirements for population management. Here we analyze the ecological and economic costs/benefits of a series of potential harvest management options for Australia's banteng population, with the aim being either to: (1) maximize sustainable yield (MSY); (2) maximize harvest of trophy males; (3) maximize indigenous off-take; (4) suppress density or completely eradicate the population; (5) minimize risk of extinction whilst limiting range expansion; (6) scenarios incorporating two or more of options 1 5. The modeling framework employed stochastic, density-regulated matrix population models with life-history parameters derived from (i) allometric relationships (for estimating r max , generation length, fecundity and densities for a banteng-sized mammal) and (ii) measured For each management option, we present a simple economic analysis that incorporates estimated costs of management implementation and associated profits projected. Results demonstrate that revenue of >AU$200,000 is possible from meat production and safari hunting without compromising long-term population stability or the conservation status of this endangered bovid

HOW SAFE ARE THE CODE OF POINTS LANDING TECHNICAL REQUIREMENTS IN ARTISTIC GYMNASTICS? PRELIMINARY RESULTS

To examine the effect of the code of points landing technical requirements in artistic gymnastics, eight female artistic gymnasts performed backward somersault dismounts off a 90 cm vaulting box. Three dimensional motion as well as upper back accelerations were measured for three landing techniques: current competition landing with feet together (FT); competition landing with a step back (SB); landing with feet shoulder width apart (FA). Group average impact forces were lowest for the FA technique; individual analyses showed SB or FA techniques were safer for 75% of gymnasts. Upper back accelerations indicating how well they could control the impact shock did not differ between the three landing techniques. The landing rule in gymnastics does have an effect on the initial and werall impact loads for backward somersault dismounts