Simultaneously constraining the astrophysics of reionisation and the epoch of heating with 21CMMC

The cosmic 21 cm signal is set to revolutionise our understanding of the early Universe, allowing us to probe the 3D temperature and ionisation structure of the intergalactic medium (IGM). It will open a window onto the unseen first galaxies, showing us how their UV and X-ray photons drove the cosmic milestones of the epoch of reionisation (EoR) and epoch of heating (EoH). To facilitate parameter inference from the 21 cm signal, we previously developed 21CMMC: a Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampler of 3D EoR simulations. Here we extend 21CMMC to include simultaneous modelling of the EoH, resulting in a complete Bayesian inference framework for the astrophysics dominating the observable epochs of the cosmic 21 cm signal. We demonstrate that second generation interferometers, the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionisation Array (HERA) and Square Kilometre Array (SKA) will be able to constrain ionising and X-ray source properties of the first galaxies with a fractional precision of order $\sim1$-10 per cent (1$\sigma$). The ionisation history of the Universe can be constrained to within a few percent. Using our extended framework, we quantify the bias in EoR parameter recovery incurred by the common simplification of a saturated spin temperature in the IGM. Depending on the extent of overlap between the EoR and EoH, the recovered astrophysical parameters can be biased by $\sim3-10\sigma$.Comment: 20 pages, 10 figures, 4 tables. Accepted to MNRAS (matches online version). Movies showing the imprint of the astrophysical parameters on the 21cm signal can be found at http://homepage.sns.it/mesinger/21CMMC.htm

Constraints on reionisation from the z=7.5 QSO ULASJ1342+0928

The recent detection of ULASJ1342+0928, a bright QSO at $z=7.54$, provides a powerful probe of the ionisation state of the intervening intergalactic medium, potentially allowing us to set strong constraints on the epoch of reionisation (EoR). Here we quantify the presence of Ly$\alpha$ damping wing absorption from the EoR in the spectrum of ULASJ1342+0928. Our Bayesian framework simultaneously accounts for uncertainties on: (i) the intrinsic QSO emission (obtained from reconstructing the Ly$\alpha$ profile from a covariance matrix of emission lines) and (ii) the distribution of HII regions during reionisation (obtained from three different 1.6$^3$ Gpc$^3$ simulations spanning the range of plausible EoR morphologies). Our analysis is complementary to that in the discovery paper (Ba\~nados et al.) and the accompanying method paper (Davies et al.) as it focuses solely on the damping wing imprint redward of Ly$\alpha$ ($1218 < \lambda < 1230$\AA), and uses a different methodology for (i) and (ii). We recover weak evidence for damping wing absorption. Our intermediate EoR model yields a volume-weighted neutral hydrogen fraction at $z=7.5$ of $\bar{x}_{\rm HI} = 0.21\substack{+0.17 \\ -0.19}$ (68 per cent). The constraints depend weakly on the EoR morphology. Our limits are lower than those presented previously, though they are consistent at ~1-1.5$\sigma$. We attribute this difference to: (i) a lower amplitude intrinsic Ly$\alpha$ profile obtained from our reconstruction pipeline, driven by correlations with other high-ionisation lines in the spectrum which are relatively weak; and (ii) only considering transmission redward of Ly$\alpha$ when computing the likelihood, which reduces the available constraining power but makes the results less model-dependent. Our results are consistent with previous estimates of the EoR history, and support the picture of a moderately extended EoR.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures. Submitted to MNRAS, comments welcom

The Evolution of 21-cm Structure (EOS): public, large-scale simulations of Cosmic Dawn and Reionization

We introduce the Evolution of 21-cm Structure (EOS) project: providing periodic, public releases of the latest cosmological 21-cm simulations. 21-cm interferometry is set to revolutionize studies of the Cosmic Dawn (CD) and epoch of reionization (EoR), eventually resulting in 3D maps of the first billion years of our Universe. Progress will depend on sophisticated data analysis pipelines, which are in turn tested on large-scale mock observations. Here we present the 2016 EOS data release, consisting of the largest (1.6 Gpc on side with a 1024^3 grid), public 21-cm simulations of the CD and EoR. We include calibrated, sub-grid prescriptions for inhomogeneous recombinations and photo-heating suppression of star formation in small mass galaxies. We present two simulation runs that approximately bracket the contribution from faint unseen galaxies. From these two extremes, we predict that the duration of reionization (defined as a change in the mean neutral fraction from 0.9 to 0.1) should be between 2.7 < Delta z < 5.7. The large-scale 21-cm power during the advanced EoR stages can be different by up to a factor of ~10, depending on the model. This difference has a comparable contribution from: (i) the typical bias of sources; and (ii) a more efficient negative feedback in models with an extended EoR driven by faint galaxies. We also make detectability forecasts. With a 1000h integration, HERA and SKA1-low should achieve a signal-to-noise of ~few-hundreds throughout the EoR/CD, while in the maximally optimistic scenario of perfect foreground cleaning, all instruments should make a statistical detection of the cosmic signal. We also caution that our ability to clean foregrounds determines the relative performance of narrow/deep vs. wide/shallow surveys expected with SKA1. Our 21-cm power spectra, simulation outputs and visualizations are publicly available.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures, MNRAS submitted; data and visualizations are available at http://homepage.sns.it/mesinger/EOS.htm

Upper Limits on the 21 cm Power Spectrum at z = 5.9 from Quasar Absorption Line Spectroscopy

We present upper limits on the 21 cm power spectrum at $z = 5.9$ calculated from the model-independent limit on the neutral fraction of the intergalactic medium of $x_{\rm H{\small I }} < 0.06 + 0.05\ (1\sigma)$ derived from dark pixel statistics of quasar absorption spectra. Using 21CMMC, a Markov chain Monte Carlo Epoch of Reionization analysis code, we explore the probability distribution of 21 cm power spectra consistent with this constraint on the neutral fraction. We present 99 per cent confidence upper limits of $\Delta^2(k) < 10$ to $20\ {\rm mK}^2$ over a range of $k$ from 0.5 to $2.0\ h{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$, with the exact limit dependent on the sampled$k$mode. This limit can be used as a null test for 21 cm experiments: a detection of power at$z=5.9$ in excess of this value is highly suggestive of residual foreground contamination or other systematic errors affecting the analysis.Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure, accepted to MNRAS letter

Constraints on the temperature of the intergalactic medium at z=8.4 with 21-cm observations

We compute robust lower limits on the spin temperature, $T_{\rm S}$, of the $z=8.4$ intergalactic medium (IGM), implied by the upper limits on the 21-cm power spectrum recently measured by PAPER-64. Unlike previous studies which used a single epoch of reionization (EoR) model, our approach samples a large parameter space of EoR models: the dominant uncertainty when estimating constraints on $T_{\rm S}$. Allowing $T_{\rm S}$ to be a free parameter and marginalizing over EoR parameters in our Markov Chain Monte Carlo code 21CMMC, we infer $T_{\rm S}\ge3 {\rm K}$ (corresponding approximately to $1\sigma$) for a mean IGM neutral fraction of $\bar{x}_{\rm H{\scriptsize I}}\gtrsim0.1$. We further improve on these limits by folding-in additional EoR constraints based on: (i) the dark fraction in QSO spectra, which implies a strict upper limit of $\bar{x}_{\rm H{\scriptsize I}}[z=5.9]\leq 0.06+0.05 \,(1\sigma)$; and (ii) the electron scattering optical depth, $\tau_{\rm e}=0.066\pm0.016\,(1\sigma)$ measured by the Planck satellite. By restricting the allowed EoR models, these additional observations tighten the approximate $1\sigma$ lower limits on the spin temperature to $T_{\rm S} \ge 6$ K. Thus, even such preliminary 21-cm observations begin to rule out extreme scenarios such as `cold reionization', implying at least some prior heating of the IGM. The analysis framework developed here can be applied to upcoming 21-cm observations, thereby providing unique insights into the sources which heated and subsequently reionized the very early Universe.Comment: 7 pages, 1 figure, accepted to MNRAS (matches online version

Inferring the astrophysics of reionization and cosmic dawn from galaxy luminosity functions and the 21-cm signal

The properties of the first galaxies, expected to drive the Cosmic Dawn (CD) and the Epoch of Reionization (EoR), are encoded in the 3D structure of the cosmic 21-cm signal. Parameter inference from upcoming 21-cm observations promises to revolutionize our understanding of these unseen galaxies. However, prior inference was done using models with several simplifying assumptions. Here we introduce a flexible, physically-motivated parametrization for high-$z$ galaxy properties, implementing it in the public code 21cmFAST. In particular, we allow their star formation rates and ionizing escape fraction to scale with the masses of their host dark matter halos, and directly compute inhomogeneous, sub-grid recombinations in the intergalactic medium. Combining current Hubble observations of the rest-frame UV luminosity function (UV LFs) at high-$z$ with a mock 1000h 21-cm observation using the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Arrays (HERA), we constrain the parameters of our model using a Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampler of 3D simulations, 21CMMC. We show that the amplitude and scaling of the stellar mass with halo mass is strongly constrained by LF observations, while the remaining galaxy properties are constrained mainly by 21-cm observations. The two data sets compliment each other quite well, mitigating degeneracies intrinsic to each observation. All eight of our astrophysical parameters are able to be constrained at the level of $\sim 10\%$ or better. The updated versions of 21cmFAST and 21CMMC used in this work are publicly available.Comment: 16 pages, 8 figures and 2 tables. Associated movies are available at http://homepage.sns.it/mesinger/21CMMC.html. Updated to match the published version. All results and conclusions remain unchange

Simultaneously constraining the astrophysics of reionization and the epoch of heating with 21CMMC

The cosmic 21\u2009cm signal is set to revolutionize our understanding of the early Universe, allowing us to probe the 3D temperature and ionization structure of the intergalactic medium (IGM). It will open a window on to the unseen first galaxies, showing us how their UV and X-ray photons drove the cosmic milestones of the epoch of reionization (EoR) and epoch of heating (EoH). To facilitate parameter inference from the 21\u2009cm signal, we previously developed 21CMMC: a Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampler of 3D EoR simulations. Here, we extend 21CMMC to include simultaneous modelling of the EoH, resulting in a complete Bayesian inference framework for the astrophysics dominating the observable epochs of the cosmic 21\u2009cm signal. We demonstrate that second-generation interferometers, the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array and Square Kilometre Array will be able to constrain ionizing and X-ray source properties of the first galaxies with a fractional precision of the order of 3c1\u201310\u2009per\u2009cent (1\u3c3). The ionization history of the Universe can be constrained to within a few percent. Using our extended framework, we quantify the bias in EoR parameter recovery incurred by the common simplification of a saturated spin temperature in the IGM. Depending on the extent of overlap between the EoR and the EoH, the recovered astrophysical parameters can be biased by 3c3\u3c3\u201310\u3c3

21CMMC with a 3D light-cone: the impact of the co-evolution approximation on the astrophysics of reionisation and cosmic dawn

We extend 21CMMC, a Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampler of 3D reionisation simulations, to perform parameter estimation directly on 3D light-cones of the cosmic 21cm signal. This brings theoretical analysis closer to the tomographic 21-cm observations achievable with next generation interferometers like HERA and the SKA. Parameter recovery can therefore account for modes which evolve with redshift/frequency. Additionally, simulated data can be more easily corrupted to resemble real data. Using the light-cone version of 21CMMC, we quantify the biases in the recovered astrophysical parameters if we use the 21cm power spectrum from the co-evolution approximation to fit a 3D light-cone mock observation. While ignoring the light-cone effect under most assumptions will not significantly bias the recovered astrophysical parameters, it can lead to an underestimation of the associated uncertainty. However significant biases ($\sim$few -- 10 $\sigma$) can occur if the 21cm signal evolves rapidly (i.e. the epochs of reionisation and heating overlap significantly) and: (i) foreground removal is very efficient, allowing large physical scales ($k\lesssim0.1$~Mpc$^{-1}$) to be used in the analysis or (ii) theoretical modelling is accurate to within $\sim10$ per cent in the power spectrum amplitude.Comment: Submitted to MNRAS, comments welcome. 13 pages, 5 figures and 2 table