Ex-ante Evaluation of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs: The Case of Bolsa Escola

Cash transfers targeted to poor people, but conditional on some behavior on their part, such as school attendance or regular visits to health care facilities, are being adopted in a growing number of developing countries. Even where ex-post impact evaluations have been conducted, a number of policy-relevant counterfactual questions have remained unanswered. These are questions about the potential impact of changes in program design, such as benefit levels or the choice of the means-test, on both the current welfare and the behavioral response of household members. This paper proposes a method to simulate the effects of those alternative program designs on welfare and behavior, based on micro-econometrically estimated models of household behavior. In an application to Brazil’s recently introduced federal Bolsa Escola program, we find a surprisingly strong effect of the conditionality on school attendance, but a muted impact of the transfers on the reduction of current poverty and inequality levels.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39901/3/wp516.pd

Beyond Oaxaca-Blinder: Accounting for Differences in Household Income Distributions Across Countries

This paper develops a micro-econometric method to account for differences across distributions of household income. Going beyond the determination of earnings in labor markets, we also estimate statistical models for occupational choice and for the conditional distributions of education, fertility and non-labor incomes. We import combinations of estimated parameters from these models to simulate counterfactual income distributions. This allows us to decompose differences between functionals of two income distributions (such as inequality or poverty measures) into shares due to differences in the structure of labor market returns (price effects); differences in the occupational structure; and differences in the underlying distribution of assets (endowment effects). We apply the method to the differences between the Brazilian income distribution and those of the United States and Mexico, and find that most of Brazil's excess income inequality is due to underlying inequalities in the distribution of two key endowments: access to education and to sources of non-labor income, mainly pensions.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39863/3/wp478.pd

Beyond Oaxaca-Blinder : accounting for differences in household income distributions across countries

The authors develop a microeconometric method to account for differences across distributions of household income. Going beyond the determination of earnings in labor markets, they also estimate statistical models for occupational choice and for conditional distributions of education, fertility, and nonlabor incomes. The authors import combinations of estimated parameters from these models to simulate counterfactual income distributions. This allows them to decompose differences between functionals of two income distributions (such as inequality or poverty measures) into shares because of differences in the structure of labor market returns (price effects), differences in the occupational structure, and differences in the underlying distribution of assets (endowment effects). The authors apply the method to the differences between the Brazilian income distribution and those of Mexico and the United States, and find that most of Brazil's excess income inequality is due to underlying inequalities in the distribution of two key endowments: access to education and to sources of nonlabor income, mainly pensions.Services&Transfers to Poor,Environmental Economics&Policies,Poverty Impact Evaluation,Economic Theory&Research,Health Economics&Finance,Inequality,Economic Theory&Research,Rural Poverty Reduction,Safety Nets and Transfers,Services&Transfers to Poor

A lymphoma plasma membrane-associated protein with ankyrin-like properties.

In this study we have used several complementary techniques to isolate and characterize a 72-kD polypeptide that is tightly associated with a major mouse T-lymphoma membrane glycoprotein, gp 85 (a wheat germ agglutinin-binding protein), in a 16 S complex. These two proteins do not separate in the presence of high salt but can be dissociated by treatment with 2 M urea. Further analysis indicates that the 72-kD protein has ankyrin-like properties based on the following criteria: (a) it cross-reacts with specific antibodies raised against erythrocyte and brain ankyrin; (b) it displays a peptide mapping pattern and a pI (between 6.5 and 6.8) similar to that of the 72-kD proteolytic fragment of erythrocyte ankyrin; (c) it competes with erythrocyte ghost membranes (spectrin-depleted preparations) for spectrin binding; and (d) it binds to purified spectrin and fodrin molecules. Most importantly, in intact lymphoma cells this ankyrin-like protein is localized directly underneath the plasma membrane and is found to be preferentially accumulated beneath receptor cap structures as well as associated with a membrane-cytoskeleton complex preparation. It is proposed that the ankyrin-like 72-kD protein may play an important role in linking certain surface glycoprotein(s) to fodrin which, in turn, binds to actin filaments required for lymphocyte cap formation

Inequality of Outcomes and Inequality of Opportunities in Brazil

This paper departs from John Roemer's theory of equality of opportunities. We seek to determine what part of observed outcome inequality may be attributed to differences in observed 'circumstances', including family background, and what part is due to 'personal efforts'. We use a micro-econometric technique to simulate what the distribution of outcomes would look like if 'circumstances' were the same for everybody. This technique is applied to Brazilian data from the 1996 household survey, both for earnings and for household incomes. It is shown that observed circumstances are a major source of outcome inequality in Brazil, probably more so than in other countries for which information is available. Nevertheless, the level of inequality after observed circumstances are equalized remains very high in Brazil.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40016/3/wp630.pd

Beyond Oaxaca-Blinder: Accounting for Differences in Household Income Distributions Across Countries

This paper develops a micro-econometric method to account for differences across distributions of household income. Going beyond the determination of earnings in labor markets, we also estimate statistical models for occupational choice and for the conditional distributions of education, fertility and non-labor incomes. We import combinations of estimated parameters from these models to simulate counterfactual income distributions. This allows us to decompose differences between functionals of two income distributions (such as inequality or poverty measures) into shares due to differences in the structure of labor market returns (price effects); differences in the occupational structure; and differences in the underlying distribution of assets (endowment effects). We apply the method to the differences between the Brazilian income distribution and those of the United States and Mexico, and find that most of Brazil's excess income inequality is due to underlying inequalities in the distribution of two key endowments: access to education and to sources of non-labor income, mainly pensions.Inequality, Distribution, Micro-simulations

Ex-ante evaluation of conditional cash transfer programs: the case of bolsa escola

Cash transfers targeted to poor people, but conditional on some behavior on their part, such as school attendance or regular visits to health care facilities, are being adopted in a growing number of developing countries. Even where ex-post impact evaluations have been conducted, a number of policy-relevant counterfactual questions have remained unanswered. These are questions about the potential impact of changes in program design, such as benefit levels or the choice of the means-test, on both the current welfare and the behavioral response of household members. This paper proposes a method to simulate the effects of those alternative program designs on welfare and behavior, based on microeconometrically estimated models of household behavior. In an application to Brazil's recently introduced federal Bolsa Escola program, the authors find a surprisingly strong effect of the conditionality on school attendance, but a muted impact of the transfers on the reduction of current poverty and inequality levelsEnvironmental Economics&Policies,Services&Transfers to Poor,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Public Health Promotion,Scientific Research&Science Parks,Youth and Governance,Street Children,Environmental Economics&Policies,Poverty Assessment,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis

Ex-ante Evaluation of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs: The Case of Bolsa Escola

Cash transfers targeted to poor people, but conditional on some behavior on their part, such as school attendance or regular visits to health care facilities, are being adopted in a growing number of developing countries. Even where ex-post impact evaluations have been conducted, a number of policy-relevant counterfactual questions have remained unanswered. These are questions about the potential impact of changes in program design, such as benefit levels or the choice of the means-test, on both the current welfare and the behavioral response of household members. This paper proposes a method to simulate the effects of those alternative program designs on welfare and behavior, based on micro-econometrically estimated models of household behavior. In an application to Brazil’s recently introduced federal Bolsa Escola program, we find a surprisingly strong effect of the conditionality on school attendance, but a muted impact of the transfers on the reduction of current poverty and inequality levels.Conditional Transfers, Demand for Schooling, Child Labor

Conditional cash transfers, schoolingand child labor: micro-simulating bolsa escola

Cash transfers targeted to poor people, but conditional on some behavior on their part, such as school attendance or regular visits to health care facilities, are being adopted in a growing number of developing countries. Even where ex-post impact evaluations have been conducted, a number of policy-relevant counterfactual questions have remained unanswered. These are questions about the potential impact of changes in program design, such as benefit levels or the choice of the means-test, on both the current welfare and the behavioral response of household members. This paper proposes a method to simulate the effects of those alternative program designs on welfare and behavior, based on microeconometrically estimated models of household behavior. In an application to Brazil’s recently introduced federal Bolsa Escola program, we find a surprisingly strong effect of the conditionality on school attendance, but a muted impact of the transfers on the reduction of current poverty and inequality levels.Conditional Transfers; Demand for Schooling, Child Labor JEL Codes: I38, J13, J22, J24

Inequality of outcomes and inequality of opportunities in Brazil

This paper departs from John Roemer's formulation of the theory of equality of opportunities. It seeks to determine what part of observed outcome inequality may be attributed to differences in observed 'circumstances', including family background, and what part is due to 'personal efforts'. We use a micro-econometric technique to simulate what the distribution of outcomes would look like if 'circumstances' were the same for everybody. This technique is applied to Brazilian data from the 1996 household survey, both on the distribution of earnings for active individuals and on the distribution of household income per capita. It is shown that observed circumstances are a major source of outcome inequality in Brazil, probably more so than in other countries for which information is available. Yet, the level of inequality after equalizing circumstances remains very high. While a policy aimed at equalizing opportunities - through facilitating more equal access to schooling, for instance - might therefore be successful in lowering Brazilian inequality somewhat, more ambitious targets for inequality reduction may require more direct income redistribution.Inequality of Opportunities, Intergenerational Educational Mobility JEL Codes: D31, D63, J62