Arbitrages économiques, sociaux et environnementaux pour le recyclage des revenus de la taxe carbone

As carbon taxes gain traction and grow tighter in OECD countries, the question of their recycling becomes crucial for political acceptance. Considering the impact of the French carbon tax in the residential sector, we examine the trade-offs between fuel poverty alleviation, energy savings and economic leverage for two revenue-recycling options-as a lump-sum payment or as a subsidy for energy efficiency improvement, each restricted to low-income households-defined as those belonging to the first two quantiles of the income distribution. We do so using Res-IRF, a highly detailed energy-economy model that interacts housing features (single vs. multi-family, energy efficiency, heating fuel) with key household characteristics (tenancy status, income of both owners and occupants). We find that the energy efficiency subsidy recycling is superior to the lump-sum payment in all respects; it even fully offsets the regressive effect of the carbon tax from 2025 onwards. No recycling, however, effectively addresses fuel poverty in private, rented housing

Efficacité économique et effets distributifs de long-terme des politiques de rénovation énergétique des logements

Using the Res-IRF energy-economy model, we evaluate the impact of four key energy efficiency subsidy programmes and the carbon tax on energy demand for residential heating in France. The carbon tax is found to be the most effective, yet also most regressive, instrument. Subsidies have a leverage effect of 1 to 1.4 in 2015. Targeting subsidies towards low-income households, that tend to live in energy inefficient dwellings, increases leverage, thus reconciling economic efficiency and social equity. Meeting the long-term energy saving targets set by the French government will require maintaining subsidy programmes until 2050 and extending them to rented dwellings.Nous évaluons, à l’aide du modèle technico-économique Res-IRF, l’effet des quatre principaux dispositifs de subvention à l’efficacité énergétique et de la taxe carbone sur la demande d’énergie pour le chauffage des logements en France. La taxe carbone s’avère être l’instrument le plus efficace, mais également le plus régressif. Les subventions induisent un effet de levier sur l’investissement de 1 à 1,4 en 2015. Le ciblage des subventions sur les ménages à bas revenus, qui sont surreprésentés dans les logements les moins performants, accroît l’effet de levier, permettant ainsi de concilier efficacité économique et équité sociale. L’atteinte des objectifs nationaux d’économie d’énergie nécessite de maintenir les subventions jusqu’en 2050 et de les étendre au parc locatif privé.Giraudet Louis-Gaëtan, Bourgeois Cyril, Quirion Philippe. Efficacité économique et effets distributifs de long-terme des politiques de rénovation énergétique des logements. In: Économie & prévision, n°217, 2020. pp. 43-63

Analyse de l'incertitude de quatre modèles de phytoprotection relative à l'erreur des mesures des variables agrométéorologiques d'entrée

Outputs uncertainty analysis of four crop protection models relative to agrometeorological inputs measurement errors. The use of computer models in crop protection increases our management and forecast capacities as well as it allows to reduce the increasing pressure of agricultural activity on natural resources by the optimization of phytosanitary products use. The CIPRA system (Centre Informatique de Prévision de Ravageurs en Agriculture), a modeling tool gathering, under a common computer frame, several forecasting models using standard weather data (temperature, wind, precipitation, relative humidity), is one of the first Canadian operational decision support systems in crop protection. Since models are just a simplification more or less representative of the corresponding biophysics system, it is of primary importance to study the implications and the limitations of their application by determining the uncertainty level on model outputs. The purpose of the present paper was to evaluate the impact of uncertainty associated with weather inputs measurement on the outputs of four models within CIPRA system. These models are the Cercospora blight of carrots (Cercospora carotae (Pass.) Solheim), the onion leaf blight (Botrytis squamosa J.C. Walker), the carrot weevil (Listronotus oregonensis (LeConte)) and the European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis (Hübner)). This objective was achieved using the relative sensitivity and the uncertainty propagation. Results show that the cercospora blight model is more sensitive to temperature than with relative humidity. In this case uncertainty on the relative humidity is a significant source of error in the outputs. The onion leaf blight model is primarily sensitive to the relative humidity fluctuations. The relative humidity is, therefore, the principal source of error in the model outputs. Finally, the two insects models (weevil and borer) are more sensitive to the maximum temperature than to the minimum temperature. Uncertainties on the two models outputs are low. In addition to the evaluation of the reliability and level of significance of the results provided by the four models, this study allows to identify the most significant meteorological variables for the models.L'usage des modèles mathématiques informatisés en phytoprotection des cultures permet d'augmenter nos capacités de gestion et de prévision. Ainsi, par l'optimisation de l'utilisation des produits phytosanitaires, ces modèles permettent de réduire la pression croissante de l'activité agricole sur les ressources naturelles. Le système CIPRA (Centre Informatique de Prévision de Ravageurs en Agriculture), un outil de modélisation regroupant, dans une infrastructure commune, plusieurs modèles prévisionnels utilisant des données météorologiques standard (température, vent, précipitation, humidité relative), est un des premiers systèmes opérationnels de support à la décision en protection des cultures au Canada. Puisque les modèles ne sont qu'une simplification plus ou moins représentative du système biophysique correspondant, il est primordial d'étudier les implications et les limitations de leur application et ce, en déterminant le niveau de l'incertitude sur les sorties. Dans le présent article, il a été question d'évaluer l'impact de l'incertitude associée à la mesure des variables météorologiques d'entrée sur les sorties de quatre modèles de phytoprotection présent dans le système CIPRA. Il s'agit des modèles de la brûlure cercosporéenne de la carotte (Cercospora carotae (Pass.) Solheim), de la brûlure des feuilles de l'oignon (Botrytis squamosa J.C. Walker), du charançon de la carotte (Listronotus oregonensis (LeConte)) et de la pyrale du maïs (Ostrinia nubilalis (Hübner)). Cette évaluation a été réalisée à l'aide de l'analyse de sensibilité relative et de la propagation de l'incertitude. Le modèle de la brûlure cercosporéenne semble être plus sensible à la température qu'à l'humidité relative. L'incertitude sur l'humidité relative est la plus importante source d'erreur. Le modèle de la brûlure des feuilles de l'oignon pour sa part est essentiellement sensible aux fluctuations de l'humidité relative. L'humidité relative est ici aussi la principale source d'erreur dans les sorties du modèle. Finalement, les deux modèles d'insectes (charançon et pyrale) semblent plus sensibles à la température maximale qu'à la température minimale. Les incertitudes sur les sorties des deux modèles sont cependant faibles. Outre l'évaluation de la fiabilité et du niveau de signification des résultats fournis par les quatre modèles, cette étude a permis d'identifier les variables météorologiques les plus significatives pour les modèles

Efficacité économique et effets distributifs de long-terme des politiques de rénovation énergétique des logements

International audienceCet article évalue l'impact entre 2012 et 2050 des principales politiques d'amélioration énergétique du parc de logements privés et sociaux en France. Cette étude utilise le modèle technico-économique Res-IRF, qui simule l'évolution de la demande d'énergie pour le chauffage des logements sous l'effet de la construction neuve et de la rénovation énergétique des logements

Policies for low-carbon and affordable home heating: A French outlook

International audienceEnergy demand for residential heating is targeted in France by a number of subsidy programmes (tax credits, zero-interest loans, reduced VAT, white certificates and the carbon tax. We assess the cost-effectiveness and distributional impacts of these policies using Res-IRF, an energy-economy model that integrates relevant economic, behavioural and technological processes. We find that, without further specification of revenue recycling, the carbon tax is the most effective, yet most regressive, policy. Subsidy programmes save energy at a cost of €0.05-0.08 per lifetime discounted kilowatt-hour, or €300-800/tCO2-eq; one euro of public money spent on subsidy programmes induces €1.0-1.4 private investment in home energy retrofits. Targeting subsidies towards low-income households, who tend to live in energy inefficient dwellings, increases leverage, thus reconciling economic efficiency and equity. The public cost of subsidies – €3 billion in 2013 – is outweighed by carbon tax proceeds from 2025 onwards, were the tax rate to grow as initially planned by the government. Meeting the long-term energy saving targets set by the government however requires adjusting subsidy programmes to better address rental housing. Lastly, an order-of-magnitude discrepancy between simulated and observed numbers of zero-interest loans points to economic and psychological barriers that require further investigation

Recyclage des revenus de la taxe carbone en paiements forfaitaires vs. subventions à l'efficacité énergétique: Une évaluation pour le secteur résidentiel français

International audienceEmpirical evidence suggests that carbon taxes are best accepted when their revenue is used to finance abatement measures. This revenue recycling option has however received little attention in modelling assessments. With the aim of filling this gap, we assess the impact of the French carbon tax on energy use for residential heating and compare the cost-effectiveness and distributional impacts of two revenue recycling options: lump-sum payment and subsidies for home energy retrofits. We do so using Res-IRF, an energy-economy model that provides a highly detailed description of housing features (single vs. multi-family, energy efficiency, heating fuel) and key household characteristics (tenancy status, income). We find that the two recycling options offset the regressive impacts of the tax in comparable ways. Lump-sum recycling is particularly effective in reducing inequalities between owner-occupiers and tenants. In turn, subsidy recycling saves energy and increases comfort more cost-effectively. In the discussion, we further point to some advantages of subsidy recycling from both a political and administrative perspective

Long-term efficiency and distributional impacts of energy saving policies in the French residential sector

International audienc

Arbitrages économiques, sociaux et environnementaux pour le recyclage des revenus de la taxe carbone

As carbon taxes gain traction and grow tighter in OECD countries, the question of their recycling becomes crucial for political acceptance. Considering the impact of the French carbon tax in the residential sector, we examine the trade-offs between fuel poverty alleviation, energy savings and economic leverage for two revenue-recycling options-as a lump-sum payment or as a subsidy for energy efficiency improvement, each restricted to low-income households-defined as those belonging to the first two quantiles of the income distribution. We do so using Res-IRF, a highly detailed energy-economy model that interacts housing features (single vs. multi-family, energy efficiency, heating fuel) with key household characteristics (tenancy status, income of both owners and occupants). We find that the energy efficiency subsidy recycling is superior to the lump-sum payment in all respects; it even fully offsets the regressive effect of the carbon tax from 2025 onwards. No recycling, however, effectively addresses fuel poverty in private, rented housing