Committed Global Warming Risks Triggering Multiple Climate Tipping Points

Many scenarios for limiting global warming to 1.5°C assume planetary-scale carbon dioxide removal sufficient to exceed anthropogenic emissions, resulting in radiative forcing falling and temperatures stabilizing. However, such removal technology may prove unfeasible for technical, environmental, political, or economic reasons, resulting in continuing greenhouse gas emissions from hard-to-mitigate sectors. This may lead to constant concentration scenarios, where net anthropogenic emissions remain non-zero but small, and are roughly balanced by natural carbon sinks. Such a situation would keep atmospheric radiative forcing roughly constant. Fixed radiative forcing creates an equilibrium “committed” warming, captured in the concept of “equilibrium climate sensitivity.” This scenario is rarely analyzed as a potential extension to transient climate scenarios. Here, we aim to understand the planetary response to such fixed concentration commitments, with an emphasis on assessing the resulting likelihood of exceeding temperature thresholds that trigger climate tipping points. We explore transients followed by respective equilibrium committed warming initiated under low to high emission scenarios. We find that the likelihood of crossing the 1.5°C threshold and the 2.0°C threshold is 83% and 55%, respectively, if today's radiative forcing is maintained until achieving equilibrium global warming. Under the scenario that best matches current national commitments (RCP4.5), we estimate that in the transient stage, two tipping points will be crossed. If radiative forcing is then held fixed after the year 2100, a further six tipping point thresholds are crossed. Achieving a trajectory similar to RCP2.6 requires reaching net-zero emissions rapidly, which would greatly reduce the likelihood of tipping events

Corneal confocal microscopy: a non-invasive surrogate of nerve fibre damage and repair in diabetic patients

Aims/hypothesis. The accurate detection, characterization and quantification of human diabetic neuropathy are important to define at risk patients, anticipate deterioration, and assess new therapies. Corneal confocal microscopy is a reiterative, rapid, non-invasive in vivo clinical examination technique capable of imaging corneal nerve fibres. The aim of this study was to define the ability of this technique to quantify the extent of degeneration and regeneration of corneal nerve fibres in diabetic patients with increasing neuropathic severity. Methods. We scanned the cornea and collected images of Bowman's layer (containing a rich nerve plexus) from 18 diabetic patients and 18 age-matched control subjects. Results. Corneal nerve fibre density (F3=9.6, p<0.0001), length (F3=23.8, p<0.0001), and branch density (F3=13.9, p<0.0001) were reduced in diabetic patients compared with control subjects, with a tendency for greater reduction in these measures with increasing severity of neuropathy. Conclusion/Interpretation. Corneal confocal microscopy is a rapid, non-invasive in vivo clinical examination technique which accurately defines the extent of corneal nerve damage and repair and acts as a surrogate measure of somatic neuropathy in diabetic patients. It could represent an advance to define the severity of neuropathy and expedite assessment of therapeutic efficacy in clinical trials of human diabetic neuropathy

A comparative study of the effect of pigment on drug toxicity in human choroidal melanocytes and retinal pigment epithelial cells

The aim of this study was to investigate whether the presence of pigment affects the sensitivity of pigmented cells of the eye, retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) and choroidal melanocytes (CMs) to the cytotoxic effects of xenobiotic drugs. Two approaches were used to compare pigmented versus unpigmented cells: RPE cells were repigmented by phagocytosis of synthetic melanin; UVB irradiation was used to induce an increase in pigment in both RPE and CMs. Three drugs known to induce toxicity in the eye, tamoxifen, chloroquine and thioridazine, were used to assess the sensitivity of cells to xenobiotic drugs. RPE cells were more resistant than CMs to the cytotoxic effects of all three drugs by a factor of 5-fold for tamoxifen, 7-fold for thioridazine and 30-fold for chloroquine. When RPE cells were repigmented using synthetic melanin, their sensitivity to tamoxifen was unchanged, they showed a slightly improved response to thioridazine (after 3 days of incubation with this drug), but they showed greatly increased toxicity to chloroquine (after 1 and 3 days of exposure to the drug), suggesting accumulation of this latter drug on the synthetic melanin. UVB irradiation was used to achieve an increase in the pigment content of both RPE and CMs. CMs were much more sensitive to UVB than RPE cells. CMs appeared to synthesise pigment via DOPA oxidase activity; RPE cells showed an increase in fluorescent material independent of any detectable DOPA oxidase activity. Irrespective of the nature of the pigment that UVB induced in melanocytes and RPE cells, their subsequent response to thioridazine and chloroquine was unchanged by the presence of this pigment. Copyright © Munksgaard, 1999