Predicting population responses to environmental change from individual-level mechanisms: towards a standardized mechanistic approach

Animal populations will mediate the response of global biodiversity to environmental changes. Population models are thus important tools for both understanding and predicting animal responses to uncertain future conditions. Most approaches, however, are correlative and ignore the individual-level mechanisms that give rise to population dynamics. Here, we assess several existing population modelling approaches, and find limitations to both ‘correlative’ and ‘mechanistic’ models. We advocate the need for a standardised mechanistic approach for linking individual mechanisms (physiology, behaviour and evolution) to population dynamics in spatially explicit landscapes. Such an approach is potentially more flexible and informative than current population models. Key to realising this goal, however, is overcoming current data limitations, the development and testing of eco-evolutionary theory to represent interactions between individual mechanisms, and standardised multidimensional environmental change scenarios which incorporate multiple stressors. Such progress is essential in supporting environmental decisions in uncertain future conditions

Evaluation and validation of TAMSAT-ALERT soil moisture and WRSI for use in drought anticipatory action

Reliable information on the likelihood of drought is of crucial importance in agricultural planning and humanitarian decision-making. Acting based upon probabilistic forecasts of drought, rather than responding to prevailing drought conditions, has the potential to save lives, livelihoods and resources, but is accompanied by the risk of acting in vain. The suitability of a novel forecasting tool is assessed in the present paper in terms of its ability to provide skilful information of the likeli hood of drought impacts on crops and pasture within a timeframe that allows for anticipatory action. The Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite data—AgriculturaL Early waRning sysTem (TAMSAT-ALERT) tool provides forecasts of seasonal mean soil moisture and the water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI). TAMSAT-ALERT metrics were found to be strongly correlated with pasture availability and maize yield in Kenya and provided skilful forecasts early in key seasons, allowing sufficient time for preparatory actions. Incorporating TAMSAT-ALERT forecasts in a layered approach, with actions triggered by spatiotemporally varying triggers and fundamentally informed by humanitarian actors, will provide reliable information on the likelihood of drought, ultimately mitigating food insecurity

Using co-production to improve the appropriate use of sub-seasonal forecasts in Africa

Forecasts on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales have huge potential to aid preparedness and disaster risk reduction planning decisions in a variety of sectors. However, realising this potential depends on the provision of reliable information that can be appropriately applied in the decision-making context of users. This study describes the African SWIFT (Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques) forecasting testbed which brings together researchers, forecast producers and users from a range of African and UK institutions. The forecasting testbed is piloting the provision of real-time, bespoke S2S forecast products to decision-makers in Africa. Drawing on data from the kick-off workshop and initial case study examples, this study critically reflects on the co-production process. Specifically, having direct access to real-time data has allowed user-guided iterations to the spatial scale, timing, visualisation and communication of forecast products to make them more actionable for users. Some key lessons for effective co-production are emerging. First, it is critical to ensure there is sufficient resource to support co-production, especially in the early co-exploration of needs. Second, all the groups in the co-production process require capacity building to effectively work in new knowledge systems. Third, evaluation should be ongoing and combine meteorological verification with decision-makers feedback. Ensuring the sustainability of project-initiated services within the testbed hinges on integrating the knowledge-exchanges between individuals in the co-production process into shaping sustainable pathways for improved operational S2S forecasting within African institutions

Imaging biomarker roadmap for cancer studies.

Imaging biomarkers (IBs) are integral to the routine management of patients with cancer. IBs used daily in oncology include clinical TNM stage, objective response and left ventricular ejection fraction. Other CT, MRI, PET and ultrasonography biomarkers are used extensively in cancer research and drug development. New IBs need to be established either as useful tools for testing research hypotheses in clinical trials and research studies, or as clinical decision-making tools for use in healthcare, by crossing 'translational gaps' through validation and qualification. Important differences exist between IBs and biospecimen-derived biomarkers and, therefore, the development of IBs requires a tailored 'roadmap'. Recognizing this need, Cancer Research UK (CRUK) and the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) assembled experts to review, debate and summarize the challenges of IB validation and qualification. This consensus group has produced 14 key recommendations for accelerating the clinical translation of IBs, which highlight the role of parallel (rather than sequential) tracks of technical (assay) validation, biological/clinical validation and assessment of cost-effectiveness; the need for IB standardization and accreditation systems; the need to continually revisit IB precision; an alternative framework for biological/clinical validation of IBs; and the essential requirements for multicentre studies to qualify IBs for clinical use.Development of this roadmap received support from Cancer Research UK and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (grant references A/15267, A/16463, A/16464, A/16465, A/16466 and A/18097), the EORTC Cancer Research Fund, and the Innovative Medicines Initiative Joint Undertaking (grant agreement number 115151), resources of which are composed of financial contribution from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) and European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA) companies' in kind contribution

Forecast-based action for conservation

Extreme weather events pose an immediate threat to biodiversity, but existing conservation strategies have limitations. Advances in meteorological forecasting and innovation in the humanitarian sector provide a possible solution – Forecast-based Action (FbA). The growth of ecological forecasting demonstrates huge potential to anticipate conservation outcomes, but a lack of operational examples suggests a new approach is needed to translate forecasts into action. FbA provides such a framework, formalising the use of meteorological forecasts to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather. Here, I draw on experience from the humanitarian sector to suggest how FbA could work in conservation. I address likely challenges in realising FbA for conservation – including establishing a financing mechanism, allocating funds to actions, and decision-making under uncertainty – provide a theoretical example, and discuss what FbA means for conservation research, practice and governance

The Climate Science for Ecological Forecasting symposium

The climate and ecological crises are inextricably linked. Climate change and extreme weather are driving biodiversity losses and destabilising ecosystem function, in turn undermining our ability to reduce carbon emissions and adapt to environmental change. Addressing these global challenges depends on understanding how ecological processes and climate dynamics respond to, and influence, one another. On 11–12 May 2022, the Royal Meteorological Society (RMetS) and British Ecological Society (BES) joined forces to hold the Climate Science for Ecological Forecasting symposium at the Coin Street Conference Centre, London. The symposium brought together ecologists and climate scientists to share innovation at the climate–ecology interface, to cross-fertilise research agendas and to identify needs and opportunities for interdisciplinary collaboration. Over 120 delegates from around the world attended the meeting, including academics and practitioners representing both disciplines..

Characterising the trophy hunting debate on Twitter

Social media is an arena of debate for contentious political and social topics. One conservation topic debated online is the acceptability of trophy hunting – with implications spilling over into national and international policy. Here, we utilise a mixed-methods approach (combining Grounded Theory and quantitative clustering) to identify themes emerging in the trophy hunting debate on Twitter. Our main result is the identification of 12 categories that describe people’s stances on trophy hunting. Through examination of commonly co-occurring categories, we define four preliminary anti-trophy hunting archetypes which we term “Activism”, “Scientific”, “Condemning”, and “Objecting” whose opposition to trophy hunting is derived from different moral reasoning. We found few tweets supporting trophy hunting with most tweeters opposing the practice. We also found that the debate was hostile, with 7% of tweets in our sample considered abusive. Online debates can be unproductive, and our findings may be important for stakeholders wishing to effectively engage in the trophy hunting debate on Twitter. More generally, we contend that, as social media is increasingly influential, it is important to formally contextualise public responses to contentious conservation topics to aid communication of conservation evidence and to integrate diverse public perspectives into conservation practice