Survey results.

<p>15 experts’ forecasts of the 36 month prevalence in each of 24 communities. Expert’s forecast distributions (grey curves) were estimated from their expected median and 95% CrI bounds for each community. Experts’ distributions could overlap when identical medians and bounds were submitted. The mean (black curve) is used to represent the community forecast.</p

Forecast scores and bias.

<p>Forecast were scored as the loglikelihood of observing the 24 community-level prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection at 36 months, with a higher (less negative) loglikelihood indicating a better forecast. Positive bias indicates that the expectations for the 24 communities were on average higher than the observed prevalence.</p><p>Forecast scores and bias.</p

Different forecast methods versus observed result.

<p>Regressions (linear regression as green curve, square root-transformed blue), SIS hidden Markov Model (red), community of experts (black), and observed 36-month prevalence (dotted bar). Forecasts could overlap.</p

Format of forecast.

<p>*mass antibiotic distribution to all ages after sample collection at that time point</p><p>**lower and upper bounds of your 95% credible interval for the village</p><p>Forecasts by experts, regression, and SIS hidden Markov model were made using the data in this table, not including the observed 36 month results (right-hand column).</p><p>Format of forecast.</p

Estimated parameters of the SIS model with random effect.

<p>Given a 6, 3, or 12months of infection duration, we estimated the overall efficacy, the mean and standard deviation of </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>log</p><mi>e</mi><p></p><p><mi>β</mi><mo>^</mo></p><p></p><p></p><p></p> (assuming that the logarithm of transmission coefficient <i>β</i> is from a normal distribution) based on the observed data of 24 communities. Estimation was done by using MCMC.<p></p><p>Estimated parameters of the SIS model with random effect.</p

Baseline characteristics of 24 communities randomized (1∶1) to annual or biannual mass azithromycin treatments in a cluster randomized clinical trial for trachoma in Niger.

<p>*TF, trachomatous inflammation - follicular; TI, trachomatous inflammation – intense, both from a random sample of children aged ≤30 months of age.</p><p>**p-values: All Wilcoxon rank-sum except linear mixed effects regression for age of children.</p><p>Baseline characteristics of 24 communities randomized (1∶1) to annual or biannual mass azithromycin treatments in a cluster randomized clinical trial for trachoma in Niger.</p

Wasting, low MUAC, stunting, and underweight in children aged 6–60 months from 24 communities randomized (1∶1) to annual or biannual mass azithromycin treatment.

<p>*Mixed effects logistic regression with community as a random effect. All measurements are based on Z score<−2.0. Numbers may be different because of some loss during field examination.</p><p>MUAC: mid-upper arm circumference.</p><p>Wasting, low MUAC, stunting, and underweight in children aged 6–60 months from 24 communities randomized (1∶1) to annual or biannual mass azithromycin treatment.</p

Relationships between measures of inter-grader agreement.

<p>This figure shows the relationships between kappa and reliability error for trachomatous inflammation – follicular (TF) grades (A), kappa and reliability error for trachomatous inflammation – intense (TI) grades (B), kappa and Brier score for TF (C), and kappa and Brier score for TI (D). Scatter plot points indicate results for each of the 18 trainees using the full set of 200 cases. Solid black line indicates linear regression fit. Grey shading indicates the estimated 95% confidence interval bands.</p

Anthropometric Z-scores in children aged 6–60 months from 24 communities randomized (1∶1) to annual or biannual mass azithromycin treatment.

<p>*Pseudomedian (Hodges-Lehmann estimator) difference between the biannual arm and annual arm. Positive values correspond to larger measurements in the biannual arm.</p><p>WHZ: weight-for-height z-score.</p><p>MUACZ: mid-upper arm circumference z-score.</p><p>HAZ: height-for-age z-score.</p><p>WAZ: weight-for-age z-score.</p><p>Anthropometric Z-scores in children aged 6–60 months from 24 communities randomized (1∶1) to annual or biannual mass azithromycin treatment.</p

Probability of <i>C. trachomatis</i> infection by quartile of normalized rank order of presentation in 4 villages in Niger.

<p>Probability of <i>C. trachomatis</i> infection by quartile of normalized rank order of presentation in 4 villages in Niger.</p