Editorial: Subjective well-being in Africa

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The economics of suicide in South Africa

This study investigates the economics of suicide in South Africa using the Mortality and Causes of Death data from death notification as well as regional economic data for the 2006-2008 period. Using an inflation rate that varies by month and across province of residence as a proxy for economic performance, the results indicate a negative relationship between inflation and suicide, suggesting that suicides are countercyclical. When controlling for month and province fixed effects, however, the inflation coefficient, albeit remaining negative, is no longer significant, except in the female sample. Suicide is more prevalent among younger individuals, while the greatest proportion of suicide is seen among men. Suicides also exhibit a strong seasonal variation, with peaks in spring and summer, with December having the highest suicide prevalence. The overall results indicate a negative but insignificant relationship between economic performance and suicide in South Africa, with socio-economic differences and individual characteristics accounting for most of the variation in suicide

Life satisfaction and education in South Africa: Investigating the role of attainment and the likelihood of education as a positional good

This paper explores various dynamics in the relationship between life satisfaction and education in South Africa using the 2008 National Income Dynamics Survey. The results indicate a strong positive association between educational attainment and individual satisfaction with life, which is true in the overall sample and for men and women. This positive relationship also holds for Black and Coloured individuals, but is insignificant in the Asian and White samples. Evidence indicates that education is a positional good, in that people who have attained more than the mean level of education in their relevant cluster are significantly more satisfied with life compared to those possessing less than the mean education

The good African society index

This paper constructs a Good Society Index for 45 African countries, termed the Good African Society Index (GASI). The GASI consists of nine main indexes: (1) economic sustainability, (2) democracy and freedom, (3) child well-being, (4) environment and infrastructure, (5) safety and security, (6) health and health systems, (7) integrity and justice, (8) education, and (9) social sustainability and social cohesion. Each component is split into four sub-components for a total of 36 indicators. Tunisia ranks highest on the GASI, followed by Cape Verde and Botswana. Chad has the lowest GASI score, followed by Central African Republic and Cote d’Ivoire. The GASI is strongly related to the 2012 Human Development Index and Fragile States Index, to a lesser extent, GNI per capita

The impact of educational attainment on household poverty in South Africa

This article investigates the relationship between the educational attainment of the household head and household poverty in South Africa. The results indicate a clear negative relationship between education and poverty. Households in which the head has a low level of education are more likely to be poor compared to a household where the head has a higher level of education. Literacy of the household head is also inversely related to household poverty. Rural and black households are the most vulnerable, with distinct differences between the province of residence. Despite large resource allocation towards education, educational outcomes have not improved. This raises questions concerning the lack of association between resource allocation and educational outcome

Exports, capital formation and economic growth in South Africa

In South Africa the export sector is frequently accorded a special role in encouraging faster economic growth. Nonetheless, a question that remains unresolved is whether higher export growth indeed leads to higher economic growth and what particular role exports may play within the overall economic growth process of the country. This study applies Johansen’s cointegration procedure, impulse response functions, variance decomposition analysis and Granger causality tests to shed light on the channels through which export growth may impact South Africa’s economic growth rate. Quarterly time series data ranging from 1975q1 to 2012q4 is employed in the study’s empirical tests. The results support the notion that the role of exports lies in their ability to encourage investment and capital formation. While export growth directly supports higher economic growth in the short-run, the long-term effect was found to lie in supporting faster capital formation, and in turn, significantly increasing economic growth. Overall, a strategy of export-led growth that does not explicitly emphasize the export-capital-growth connection is likely to fall short of reflecting the dynamics contained within the exports-growth relationship in South Africa.Keywords: Exports; Economic growth; South Africa

Firm age, collateral value, and access to debt financing in an emerging economy: evidence from South Africa

This paper applies the Blundell and Bond system generalised method of moments (GMM) two-step estimator to examine the impact of age and collateral value on debt financing, using a panel of 177 non-financial companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange over the period 1999 to 2009. The results show that South African firms have target leverage ratios and adjust their capital structures from time to time to achieve their respective targets, that the relationship between firm age and debt financing is non-monotonic, and that firms with higher collateral value are likely to face fewer constraints on borrowing and therefore have greater access to medium-term and long-term debts. Robustness tests also reveal that during start-up and maturity stages, a firm's access to debt markets is significantly influenced by investments in assets that are acceptable to external creditors as collateral. These findings suggest that debt financing policies could be more critical for firms in the start-up and maturity stages

Modelling stock return volatility dynamics in selected African markets

This paper examines whether accounting for structural changes in the conditional variance process, through the use of Markov-switching models, improves estimates and forecasts of stock return volatility over those of the more conventional single-state (G)ARCH models, within and across selected African markets for the period 2002–2012. In the univariate portion of the paper, the performances of various Markov-switching models are tested against a single-state benchmark model through the use of in-sample goodness-of-fit and predictive ability measures. In the multivariate context, the single-state and Markov-switching models are comparatively assessed according to their usefulness in constructing optimal stock portfolios. Accounting for structural breaks in the conditional variance process, conventional GARCH effects remain important in capturing heteroscedasticity. However, those univariate models including a GARCH term perform comparatively poorly when used for forecasting purposes. In the multivariate study, the use of Markov-switching variance–covariance estimates improves risk-adjusted portfolio returns relative to portfolios constructed using the more conventional single-state models. While there is evidence that some Markov-switching models can provide better forecasts and higher risk-adjusted returns than those models which include GARCH effects, the inability of the simpler Markov-switching models to fully capture heteroscedasticity in the data remains problematic

Suicide and the South African business cycle

Using monthly data for January 2006 - December 2015, this study explores the relationship between suicide and the South African business cycle. Contrary to most previous research, the findings reveal that suicide is pro-cyclical

A Note on the (Continued) Ability of the Yield Curve to Forecast Economic Downturns in South Africa

In 2002-2003, the South African yield spread falsely signalled a downswing that never materialised. This paper provides two reasons for this false signal. First, while the Reserve Bank never actually officially declared the start of a downswing, by alternative measures a downswing did actually occur. It is this severe weakness in economic activity at that time that the yield curve pointed to. Second, short-term interest rates in 2003 were higher than they should have been because of a mistake made in measuring consumer price inflation. Because South Africa had recently introduced an inflation-targeting regime, policy interest rates were, as a result of this error, kept too high for too long. This policy mistake was rectified as soon as the error in the Consumer Price Index was discovered. Thus, the yield curve in 2003 pointed to the reality that short-term interest rates were too high and risked pushing the economy into full blown recession. This is demonstrated by the fact that it was a fall in long bond interest rates that caused the yield spread to turn negative, indicating expectations that short-term interest rates would need to be cut – as indeed they were