Risiken im Lebenszyklus: Theorie und Evidenz

Der einzelne Mensch ist im Lebensverlauf erheblichen biometrischen, ökonomischen, familiären und politischen Risiken ausgesetzt. Viele meinen, diese wären in den letzten Jahren größer geworden. Haben wir die richtigen Institutionen, um diese Risiken effizient abzudecken? Unter Institutionen verstehen wir individuelles Sparen, familiäre Hilfe, private Versicherungen und schließlich den Staat mit seinen Sozialversicherungen. Wo und wann funktionieren diese Institutionen? Wo und wann nicht? Was muss man tun, um sie zu verbessern? Wie sieht modernes "Social Risk Management" aus? Der erste Teil dieses Übersichtsbeitrags skizziert die wirtschaftstheoretischen Grundlagen des Sparverhaltens, der Portefeuillewahl und der Versicherungsnachfrage. Im Hauptteil werden die empirischen Befunde gesammelt, um im dritten Teil wirtschaftspolitische Schlussfolgerungen zu ziehen

Smooth Unbiased Multivariate Probability Simulators for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Limited Dependent Variable Models

We apply a new simulation method that solves the multidimensional probability integrals that arise in maximum likelihood estimation of a broad class of limited dependent variable models. The simulation method has four key features: the simulated choice probabilities are unbiased; they are a continuous and differentiable function of the parameters of the model; they are bounded between 0 and 1; and their computation takes an effort that is nearly linear in the dimension of the probability integral, independent of the magnitudes of the true probabilities. We also show that the new simulation method produces probability estimates with substantially smaller variance than those generated by acceptance-rejection methods or by Stern’s (1987) method. The simulated probabilities can therefore be used to revive the Lerman and Manski (1981) procedure of approximating the likelihood function using simulated choice probabilities by overcoming its computational disadvantages

Unemployment and retirement and ill-health: a cross-sectional analysis across European countries

Objective To determine the associations between different measures of health and labor market position across ten European countries. Methods We studied 11,462 participants of the Survey on Health and Ageing in Europe (SHARE) who were 50–64 years old. Logistic regression was used to calculate the associations between health and other determinants and being retired, unemployed, or a homemaker. Results A large variation across European countries was observed for the proportion of persons 50–65 years with paid employment, varying among men from 42% in Austria to 75% in Sweden and among women from 22% in Italy to 69% in Sweden. Among employed workers 18% reported a poor health, whereas this proportion was 37% in retirees, 39% in unemployed persons, and 35% in homemakers. A perceived poor health was strongly associated with non-participating in labor force in most European countries. A lower education, being single, physical inactivity and a high body mass index were associated with withdrawal from the labor force. Long-term illnesses such as depression, stroke, diabetes, chronic lung disease, and musculoskeletal disease were significantly more common among those persons not having paid employment. Conclusion In many European countries a poor health, chronic diseases, and lifestyle factors were associated with being out of the labor market. The results of this study suggest that in social policies to encourage employment among older persons the role of ill-health and its influencing factors needs to be incorporated

Determinants of cardiovascular disease and other non-communicable diseases in Central and Eastern Europe: Rationale and design of the HAPIEE study

BACKGROUND: Over the last five decades, a wide gap in mortality opened between western and eastern Europe; this gap increased further after the dramatic fluctuations in mortality in the former Soviet Union (FSU) in the 1990s. Recent rapid increases in mortality among lower socioeconomic groups in eastern Europe suggests that socioeconomic factors are powerful determinants of mortality in these populations but the more proximal factors linking the social conditions with health remain unclear. The HAPIEE (Health, Alcohol and Psychosocial factors In Eastern Europe) study is a prospective cohort study designed to investigate the effect of classical and non-conventional risk factors and social and psychosocial factors on cardiovascular and other non-communicable diseases in eastern Europe and the FSU. The main hypotheses of the HAPIEE study relate to the role of alcohol, nutrition and psychosocial factors. METHODS AND DESIGN: The HAPIEE study comprises four cohorts in Russia, Poland, the Czech Republic and Lithuania; each consists of a random sample of men and women aged 45–69 years old at baseline, stratified by gender and 5 year age groups, and selected from population registers. The total planned sample size is 36,500 individuals. Baseline information from the Czech Republic, Russia and Poland was collected in 2002–2005 and includes data on health, lifestyle, diet (food frequency), socioeconomic circumstances and psychosocial factors. A short examination included measurement of anthropometric parameters, blood pressure, lung function and cognitive function, and a fasting venous blood sample. Re-examination of the cohorts in 2006–2008 focuses on healthy ageing and economic well-being using face-to-face computer assisted personal interviews. Recruitment of the Lithuanian cohort is ongoing, with baseline and re-examination data being collected simultaneously. All cohorts are being followed up for mortality and non-fatal cardiovascular events. DISCUSSION: The HAPIEE study will provide important new insights into social, behavioural and biological factors influencing mortality and cardiovascular risk in the region

Social security reform in Germany

Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - Biblioteca Centrale - Piazzale Aldo Moro 7, Rome / CNR - Consiglio Nazionale delle RichercheSIGLEITItal