Characteristics of 5-year-olds who catch-up with MMR: findings from the UK Millennium Cohort Study

Objectives To examine predictors of partial and full measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination catch-up between 3 and 5 years. Design Secondary data analysis of the nationally representative Millennium Cohort Study (MCS). Setting Children born in the UK, 2000–2002. Participants 751 MCS children who were unimmunised against MMR at age 3, with immunisation information at age 5. Main outcome measures Catch-up status: unimmunised (received no MMR), partial catch-up (received one MMR) or full catch-up (received two MMRs). Results At age 5, 60.3% (n=440) children remained unvaccinated, 16.1% (n=127) had partially and 23.6% (n=184) had fully caught-up. Children from families who did not speak English at home were five times as likely to partially catch-up than children living in homes where only English was spoken (risk ratio 4.68 (95% CI 3.63 to 6.03)). Full catch-up was also significantly more likely in those did not speak English at home (adjusted risk ratio 1.90 (1.08 to 3.32)). In addition, those from Pakistan/Bangladesh (2.40 (1.38 to 4.18)) or ‘other’ ethnicities (such as Chinese) (1.88 (1.08 to 3.29)) were more likely to fully catch-up than White British. Those living in socially rented (1.86 (1.34 to 2.56)) or ‘Other’ (2.52 (1.23 to 5.18)) accommodations were more likely to fully catch-up than home owners, and families were more likely to catch-up if they lived outside London (1.95 (1.32 to 2.89)). Full catch-up was less likely if parents reported medical reasons (0.43 (0.25 to 0.74)), a conscious decision (0.33 (0.23 to 0.48)), or ‘other’ reasons (0.46 (0.29 to 0.73)) for not immunising at age 3 (compared with ‘practical’ reasons). Conclusions Parents who partially or fully catch-up with MMR experience practical barriers and tend to come from disadvantaged or ethnic minority groups. Families who continue to reject MMR tend to have more advantaged backgrounds and make a conscious decision to not immunise early on. Health professionals should consider these findings in light of the characteristics of their local populations

Presentation for care and antenatal management of HIV in the United Kingdom:temporal trends and demographic variations, 2009-2014

OBJECTIVES: Despite very low rates of vertical transmission of HIV in the UK overall, rates are higher among women starting antenatal antiretroviral therapy (ART) late. We investigated the timing of key elements of the care of HIV‐positive pregnant women [antenatal care booking, HIV laboratory assessment (CD4 count and HIV viral load) and antenatal ART initiation], to assess whether clinical practice is changing in line with recommendations, and to investigate factors associated with delayed care. METHODS: We used the UK's National Study of HIV in Pregnancy and Childhood for 2009−2014. Data were analysed by fitting logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: A total of 5693 births were reported; 79.5% were in women diagnosed with HIV prior to that pregnancy. Median gestation at antenatal booking was 12.1 weeks [interquartile range (IQR) 10.0–15.6 weeks] and booking was significantly earlier during 2012–2014 vs. 2009–2011 (P < 0.001), although only in previously diagnosed women. Overall, 42.2% of pregnancies were booked late (≥ 13 gestational weeks). Among women not already on treatment, antenatal ART commenced at a median of 21.4 (IQR18.1–24.5) weeks and started significantly earlier in the most recent time period (P < 0.001). Compared with previously diagnosed women, those newly diagnosed during the current pregnancy booked later for antenatal care and started antenatal ART later (both P < 0.001). Multivariable analyses revealed demographic variations in access to or uptake of care, with groups including migrants and parous women initiating care later. CONCLUSIONS: Although women are accessing antenatal and HIV care earlier in pregnancy, some continue to face barriers to timely initiation of antenatal care and ART

Statistically speaking...How long can the next Pope expect to live?

We review our 2016 Bayesian survival analysis model prediction of the post-election survival time of Pope Francis, finding it to be accurate. We present a Lexis diagram showing the post-election survival times of popes from 1404. We use our model to make post-election survival time predictions for hypothetical popes aged 50, 60, 70 and 80 years. In the light of the election of Cardinal Prevost on 8th May 2025, we predict the post-election survival time of Pope Leo XIV. The advantage of our approach is that it yields the full survival time distribution, rather than just a point estimate

HCV co-infection and markers of liver injury and fibrosis among HIV-positive childbearing women in Ukraine: results from a cohort study

BACKGROUND: Ukraine's injecting drug use-driven HIV epidemic is among the most severe in Europe with high burden of HCV co-infection. HIV/HCV co-infected individuals are at elevated risk of HCV-related morbidity, but little is known about burden of liver disease and associated factors in the HIV-positive population in Ukraine, particularly among women. METHODS: Characteristics of 2050 HIV-positive women enrolled into the Ukrainian Study of HIV-infected Childbearing Women were described by HCV serostatus. Aspartate transaminase (AST) to platelet ratio (APRI) and FIB-4 scores were calculated and exact logistic regression models fitted to investigate factors associated with significant fibrosis (APRI >1.5) among 762 women with an APRI score available. RESULTS: Of 2050 HIV-positive women (median age 27.7 years, IQR 24.6-31.3), 33% were HCV co-infected (79% of those with a history of injecting drug use vs 23% without) and 17% HBsAg positive. A quarter were on antiretroviral therapy at postnatal cohort enrolment. 1% of the HIV/HCV co-infected group had ever received treatment for HCV. Overall, 24% had an alanine aminotransferase level >41 U/L and 34% an elevated AST (53% and 61% among HIV/HCV co-infected). Prevalence of significant fibrosis was 4.5%; 2.5% among 445 HIV mono-infected and 12.3% among 171 HIV/HCV co-infected women. 1.2% had a FIB-4 score >3.25 indicating advanced fibrosis. HCV RNA testing in a sub-group of 56 HIV/HCV co-infected women indicated a likely spontaneous clearance rate of 18% and predominance of HCV genotype 1, with one-third having genotype 3 infection. Factors associated with significant fibrosis were HCV co-infection (AOR 2.53 95%CI 1.03-6.23), history of injecting drug use (AOR 3.51 95%CI 1.39-8.89), WHO stage 3-4 HIV disease (AOR 3.47 95%CI 1.51-7.99 vs stage 1-2 HIV disease) and not being on combination antiretroviral therapy (AOR 3.08 95%CI 1.23-7.74), adjusted additionally for HBV co-infection, smoking and age. CONCLUSIONS: Most HIV/HCV co-infected women had elevated liver enzymes and 12% had significant fibrosis according to APRI. Risk factors for liver fibrosis in this young HIV-positive population include poorly controlled HIV and high burden of HCV. Results highlight the importance of addressing modifiable risk factors and rolling out HCV treatment to improve the health outcomes of this group

Distribution-free hyperrectangular tolerance regions for setting multivariate reference regions in laboratory medicine

Reference regions are important in laboratory medicine to interpret the test results of patients, and usually given by tolerance regions. Tolerance regions of dimensions are highly desirable when the test results contains outcome measures. Nonparametric hyperrectangular tolerance regions are attractive in real problems due to their robustness with respect to the underlying distribution of the measurements and ease of intepretation, and methods to construct them have been recently provided by Young and Mathew [Stat Methods Med Res. 2020;29:3569-3585]. However, their validity is supported by a simulation study only. In this paper, nonparametric hyperrectangular tolerance regions are constructed by using Tukey's [Ann Math Stat. 1947;18:529-539; Ann Math Stat. 1948;19:30-39] elegant results of equivalence blocks. The validity of these new tolerance regions is proven mathematically in [Ann Math Stat. 1947;18:529-539; Ann Math Stat. 1948;19:30-39] under the only assumption that the underlying distribution of the measurements is continuous. The methodology is applied to analyze the kidney function problem considered in Young and Mathew [Stat Methods Med Res. 2020;29:3569-3585]

Loss to follow-up after pregnancy among Sub-Saharan Africa-born women living with HIV in England, Wales and Northern Ireland:results from a large national cohort

BACKGROUND: Little is known about retention in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care in HIV-positive women after pregnancy in the United Kingdom. We explored the association between loss to follow-up (LTFU) in the year after pregnancy, maternal place of birth and duration of UK residence, in HIV-positive women in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. METHODS: We analyzed combined data from 2 national data sets: the National Study of HIV in Pregnancy and Childhood; and the Survey of Prevalent HIV Infections Diagnosed, including pregnancies in 2000 to 2009 in women with diagnosed HIV. Logistic regression models were fitted with robust standard errors to estimate adjusted odds ratios (AOR). RESULTS: Overall, 902 of 7211 (12.5%) women did not access HIV care in the year after pregnancy. Factors associated with LTFU included younger age, last CD4 in pregnancy of 350 cells/μL or greater and detectable HIV viral load at the end of pregnancy (all P < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, LTFU was more likely in sub-Saharan Africa-born (SSA-born) women than white UK-born women (AOR, 2.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.50–3.14; P < 0.001). The SSA-born women who had migrated to the UK during pregnancy were 3 times more likely than white UK-born women to be lost to follow-up (AOR, 3.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.94–3.23; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: One in 8 HIV-positive women in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland did not return for HIV care in the year after pregnancy, with SSA-born women, especially those who migrated to the United Kingdom during pregnancy, at increased risk. Although emigration is a possible explanatory factor, disengagement from care may also play a role

New tools for network time series with an application to COVID-19 hospitalisations

Network time series are becoming increasingly important across many areas in science and medicine and are often characterised by a known or inferred underlying network structure, which can be exploited to make sense of dynamic phenomena that are often high-dimensional. For example, the Generalised Network Autoregressive (GNAR) models exploit such structure parsimoniously. We use the GNAR framework to introduce two association measures: the network and partial network autocorrelation functions, and introduce Corbit (correlation-orbit) plots for visualisation. As with regular autocorrelation plots, Corbit plots permit interpretation of underlying correlation structures and, crucially, aid model selection more rapidly than using other tools such as AIC or BIC. We additionally interpret GNAR processes as generalised graphical models, which constrain the processes' autoregressive structure and exhibit interesting theoretical connections to graphical models via utilization of higher-order interactions. We demonstrate how incorporation of prior information is related to performing variable selection and shrinkage in the GNAR context. We illustrate the usefulness of the GNAR formulation, network autocorrelations and Corbit plots by modelling a COVID-19 network time series of the number of admissions to mechanical ventilation beds at 140 NHS Trusts in England & Wales. We introduce the Wagner plot that can analyse correlations over different time periods or with respect to external covariates. In addition, we introduce plots that quantify the relevance and influence of individual nodes. Our modelling provides insight on the underlying dynamics of the COVID-19 series, highlights two groups of geographically co-located `influential' NHS Trusts and demonstrates superior prediction abilities when compared to existing techniques

Evaluating the Concept of Brain Sparing in a High Income Setting, Using Historical Records of Maternal Influenza or Syphilis Infection

ABSTRACT Introduction: In the context of adverse in utero environments, the fetal brain might be preserved at the expense of other tissues. This trade‐off, brain sparing, has not been studied in the context of maternal infection. We investigated cases of maternal syphilis in the early 20th century and influenza during the 1918–1920 pandemic, in the Swiss city of Lausanne, a relatively high‐income setting. We tested the brain sparing hypothesis, that head circumference is protected at the expense of birth weight. Methods: A total of 8530 individual birth records from 1911 to 1922 from the University Maternity Hospital of Lausanne were used. We fitted generalized linear and additive linear models to explain how neonatal size varies under disease exposure. Results: Influenza reduced head circumference and birth weight among livebirths similarly, by −0.11 and −0.14 standard deviation (SD) units respectively. Conversely, for syphilis‐exposed infants, head circumference was affected more than birth weight (−0.61 SD vs. −0.46 SD). Stillborn infants exposed to syphilis experienced a much greater reduction in head circumference (−1.92 SD) than liveborn infants. After adjustment for gestational age, these findings persisted in the case of influenza, but the effects of syphilis were reduced. Furthermore, half of syphilis‐exposed infants were born before term, suggesting that lower infant size was partly mediated by shorter gestation. Nevertheless, head circumference among stillbirths exposed to syphilis was still substantially reduced, even after adjustment for gestational age (−1.26 SD). Conclusion: Our findings do not support the brain sparing hypothesis. Moreover, the substantial reduction in head circumference among syphilis‐exposed fetuses might help explain why a quarter of them were stillborn

Effect of impaired vision on physical activity from childhood to adolescence

International physical activity (PA) guidelines are set irrespective of disabilities. Yet the levels of and changes in PA across transition from childhood into adolescence among those with impaired vision are not well understood due to the challenges of longitudinal population-based studies of rare conditions. Our study investigated whether children and adolescents with impaired vision can achieve PA levels equivalent to those without impaired vision