Predicting prostate cancer treatment choices: The role of numeracy, time discounting, and risk attitudes

Prostate cancer is the most common cancer among males in the United States and there is lack of consensus as to whether active surveillance (AS) or radical prostatectomy (RP) is the best course of treatment. In this study we examined the role of three overlooked determinants of decision making about prostate cancer treatment in a hypothetical experiment—numeracy, time discounting, and risk taking in 279 men over age 50 without a prior prostate cancer diagnosis. Results showed that AS was the most frequently chosen option. Furthermore, numeracy and time discounting significantly predicted participants’ preference for AS, whereas a propensity to take risks was associated with a preference for RP. Such insights into the factors that affects cancer treatment preferences may improve tailored decision aids and help physicians be better poised to engage in shared decision-making to improve both patient-reported and clinical outcomes

A Cost-Utility Analysis of Prostate Cancer Screening in Australia

Background and Objectives: The Göteborg randomised population-based prostate cancer screening trial demonstrated that Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) based screening reduces prostate cancer deaths compared with an age matched control group. Utilising the prostate cancer detection rates from this study we have investigated the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a similar PSA-based screening strategy for an Australian population of men aged 50-69 years. Methods: A decision model that incorporated Markov processes was developed from a health system perspective.The base case scenario compared a population-based screening programme with current opportunistic screening practices. Costs, utility values, treatment patterns and background mortality rates were derived from Australian data. All costs were adjusted to reflect July 2015 Australian dollars. An alternative scenario compared systematic with opportunistic screening but with optimisation of active surveillance (AS) uptake in both groups. A discount rate of 5% for costs and benefits was utilised. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the effect of variable uncertainty on model outcomes. Results: Our model very closely replicated the number of deaths from both prostate cancer and background mortality in the Göteborg study. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for PSA screening was $AU147,528. However, for years of life gained (LYGs) PSA based screening ($AU45,890/LYG) appeared more favourable. Our alternative scenario with optimised AS improved cost-utility to $AU45,881/QALY, with screening becoming cost-effective at a 92$AU50,000/QALY. It appears more cost-effective if LYGs are used as the relevant outcome, and is more cost effective than the established Australian breast cancer screening programme on this basis. Optimised utilisation of AS increases the cost-effectiveness of prostate cancer screening dramatically

The prognostic influence of tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes in cancer: a systematic review with meta-analysis

Background:Tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) are often found in tumours, presumably reflecting an immune response against the tumour. We carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis, aiming to establish pooled estimates for survival outcomes based on the presence of TILs in cancer.Methods:A Pubmed and Embase literature search was designed. Studies were included, in which the prognostic significance of intratumoural CD3+, CD4+, CD8+, and FoxP3+ lymphocytes, as well as ratios between these subsets, were determined in solid tumours.Results:In pooled analysis, CD3+ TILs had a positive effect on survival with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.58 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.43-0.78) for death, as did CD8+ TILs with a HR of 0.71 (95% CI 0.62-0.82). FoxP3+ regulatory TILs were not linked to overall survival, with a HR of 1.19 (95% CI 0.84-1.67). The CD8/FoxP3 ratio produced a more impressive HR (risk of death: HR 0.48, 95% CI 0.34-0.68), but was used in relatively few studies. Sample size and follow-up time seemed to influence study outcomes.Conclusion:Any future studies should be carefully designed, to prevent overestimating the effect of TILs on prognosis. In this context, ratios between TIL subsets may be more informative.British Journal of Cancer advance online publication, 31 May 2011; doi:10.1038/bjc.2011.189 www.bjcancer.com

Open Versus Robotic Cystectomy: A Propensity Score Matched Analysis Comparing Survival Outcomes

BACKGROUND: To assess the differential effect of robotic assisted radical cystectomy (RARC) versus open radical cystectomy (ORC) on survival outcomes in matched analyses performed on a large multicentric cohort. METHODS: The study included 9757 patients with urothelial bladder cancer (BCa) treated in a consecutive manner at each of 25 institutions. All patients underwent radical cystectomy with bilateral pelvic lymphadenectomy. To adjust for potential selection bias, propensity score matching 2:1 was performed with two ORC patients matched to one RARC patient. The propensity-matched cohort included 1374 patients. Multivariable competing risk analyses accounting for death of other causes, tested association of surgical technique with recurrence and cancer specific mortality (CSM), before and after propensity score matching. RESULTS: Overall, 767 (7.8%) patients underwent RARC and 8990 (92.2%) ORC. The median follow-up before and after propensity matching was 81 and 102 months, respectively. In the overall population, the 3-year recurrence rates and CSM were 37% vs. 26% and 34% vs. 24% for ORC vs. RARC (all p values > 0.1), respectively. On multivariable Cox regression analyses, RARC and ORC had similar recurrence and CSM rates before and after matching (all p values > 0.1). CONCLUSIONS: Patients treated with RARC and ORC have similar survival outcomes. This data is helpful in consulting patients until long term survival outcomes of level one evidence is available

Cancer recurrence times from a branching process model

As cancer advances, cells often spread from the primary tumor to other parts of the body and form metastases. This is the main cause of cancer related mortality. Here we investigate a conceptually simple model of metastasis formation where metastatic lesions are initiated at a rate which depends on the size of the primary tumor. The evolution of each metastasis is described as an independent branching process. We assume that the primary tumor is resected at a given size and study the earliest time at which any metastasis reaches a minimal detectable size. The parameters of our model are estimated independently for breast, colorectal, headneck, lung and prostate cancers. We use these estimates to compare predictions from our model with values reported in clinical literature. For some cancer types, we find a remarkably wide range of resection sizes such that metastases are very likely to be present, but none of them are detectable. Our model predicts that only very early resections can prevent recurrence, and that small delays in the time of surgery can significantly increase the recurrence probability.Comment: 26 pages, 9 figures, 4 table