Processes controlling thermokarst lake expansion rates on the Arctic coastal plain of Northern Alaska

Thesis (M.S.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2017Thermokarst lakes are a dominant factor of landscape scale processes and permafrost dynamics in the otherwise continuous permafrost region of the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska. Lakes cover greater than 20% of the landscape on the ACP and drained lake basins cover an additional 50 to 60% of the landscape. The formation, expansion, drainage, and reformation of thermokarst lakes has been described by some researchers as part of a natural cycle, the thaw lake cycle, that has reworked the ACP landscape during the course of the Holocene. Yet the factors and processes controlling contemporary thermokarst lake expansion remain poorly described. This thesis focuses on the factors controlling variation in extant thermokarst lake expansion rates in three ACP regions that vary with respect to landscape history, ground-ice content, and lake characteristics (i.e. size and depth). Through the use of historical aerial imagery, satellite imagery, and field-based data collection, this study identifies the controlling factors at multiple spatial and temporal scales to better understand the processes relating to thermokarst lake expansion. Comparison of 35 lakes across the ACP shows regional differences in expansion rate related to permafrost ice content ranging from an average expansion rate of 0.62 m/yr on the Younger Outer Coastal Plain where ice content is highest to 0.16 m/yr on the Inner Coastal Plain where ice content is lowest. Within each region, lakes vary in their expansion rates due to factors such as lake size, lake depth, and winter ice regime. On an individual level, lakes vary due to shoreline characteristics such as local bathymetry and bluff height. Predicting how thermokarst lakes will behave locally and on a landscape scale is increasingly important for managing habitat and water resources and informing models of land-climate interactions in the Arctic

Thermokarst-lake methanogenesis along a complete talik (thaw bulb) profile

Thermokarst (thaw) lakes emit methane (CH4) to the atmosphere, with the carbon (C) originating from terrestrial sources such as the Holocene soils of the lakes’ watersheds, thaw of Holocene- and Pleistoceneaged permafrost soil beneath and surrounding the lakes, and decomposition of contemporary organic matter (OM) in the lakes. However, the relative magnitude of CH4 production in surface lake sediments versus deeper thawed permafrost horizons is not well understood. We assessed anaerobic CH4 production potentials from 22 depths along a 590 cm long lake sediment core from the center of an interior Alaska thermokarst lake, Vault Lake, that captured the entire package of surface lake sediments, the talik (thaw bulb), and the top 40 cm of thawing permafrost beneath the talik. We also studied the adjacent Vault Creek permafrost tunnel that extends through icerich yedoma permafrost soils surrounding the lake and into underlying fluvial gravel. Our results show, in the center of a first generation thermokarst-lake, whole-column CH4 production is dominated by methanogenesis in the organic-rich surface lake sediments [151 cm thick; mean ± SD 5.95 ± 1.67 μg C-CH4 per g dry weight sediment per day (g dw−1 d−1); 125.9 ± 36.2 μg C-CH4 per g organic carbon per day (g Corg−1 d−1)]. The organic-rich surface sediments contribute the most (67%) to whole-column CH4 production despite occupying a lesser fraction (26%) of sediment column thickness. High CH4 production potentials were also observed in recently-thawed permafrost (1.18 ± 0.61 μg C-CH4 g dw−1 d−1; 59.60 ± 51.5 μg CCH4 g Corg−1 d−1) at the bottom of the talik, but the narrow thicknesses (43 cm) of this horizon limited its overall contribution to total sediment column CH4 production in the core. Lower rates of CH4 production were observed in sediment horizons representing permafrost that has been thawed in the talik for longer periods of time. The thickest sequence in the Vault Lake core, which consisted of combined Lacustrine silt and Taberite facies (60% of total core thickness), had low CH4 production potentials, contributing only 21% of whole sediment column CH4 production potential. No CH4 production was observed in samples obtained from the permafrost tunnel, whose sediments represent a non-lake environment. Our findings imply that CH4 production is highly variable in thermokarstlake systems and that both modern OM supplied to surface sediments and ancient OM supplied to both surface and deep lake sediments by in situ thaw, as well as shore erosion of yedoma permafrost, are important to lake CH4 production. Knowing where CH4 originates and what proportion of produced CH4 is emitted will aid in estimations of how C release and processing in a thermokarst-lake environment differs from other thawing permafrost and non-permafrost environments. References: Heslop, J.K.; Walter Anthony, K.M.; Sepulveda-Jauregui, A.; Martinez-Cruz, K.; Bondurant, A.; Grosse, G. and Jones, M.C. [2015]: Thermokarst lake methanogenesis along a complete talik profile. Biogeosciences, 12:4317–4331, doi:10.5194/bg-12-4317-2015

Extreme Sensitivity of Shallow Lakes and Sublake Permafrost to Arctic Climate Change

The interaction and feedbacks between surface water and permafrost are fundamental processes shaping the surface of continuous permafrost landscapes. Lake-rich regions of Arctic lowlands, such as coastal plains of northern Alaska, Siberia, and Northwest Canada, where shallow thermokarst lakes often cover 20-40% of the land surface are a pronounced example of these permafrost processes. In these same Arctic coastal regions, current rates of near-surface atmospheric warming are extremely high, 0.8 °C / decade for example in Barrow, Alaska, primarily due to reductions in sea ice extent (Wendler et al., 2014). The thermal response of permafrost over recent decades is also rapid, warming approximately 0.6°C / decade for example at Deadhorse, Alaska, yet this permafrost is still very cold, less than -6°C (Romanovsky et al., 2015). The temperature departure created by water in lakes set in permafrost is well recognized and where mean annual bed temperatures (MABT) are above 0 °C, a talik develops (Brewer, 1958). The critical depth of water in lakes where taliks form is generally in excess of maximum ice thickness, which has historically been around 2 m in northern Alaska. Thus, lakes that are shallower than the maximum ice thickness, which are the majority of water bodies in many Arctic coastal lowlands, should maintain sublake permafrost and have a shallow active layer if MABT’s are below freezing. Recent analysis, however, suggests a lake ice thinning trend of 0.15 m / decade for lakes on the Barrow Peninsula, such that the maximum ice thickness has shifted to less than 1.5 m since the early 2000’s. We hypothesized that the surface areas most sensitive to Arctic climate warming are below lakes with depths that are near or just below this critical maximum ice thickness threshold primarily because of changing winter climate and reduced ice growth. This hypothesis was tested using field observations of MABT, ice thickness, and water depth collected from lakes of varying depths and climatic zones on the coastal plain and foothills of northern Alaska. A model was developed to explain variation in lake MABT by partitioning the controlling processes between ice-covered and open-water periods. As expected, variation in air temperature explained a high amount of variation in bed temperature (72%) and this was improved to 80% by including lake depth in this model. Bed temperature during the much longer ice-covered period, however, was controlled by lake depth relative to regional maximum ice thickness, termed the Effective Depth Ratio (EDR). A piecewise linear regression model of EDR explained 96% of the variation in bed temperature with key EDR breaks identified at 0.75 and 1.9. These breaks may be physically meaningful towards understanding the processes linking lake ice to bed temperatures and sublake permafrost thaw. For example if regional lake ice grows to 1.5 m thick, the first break is at lake depth of 1.1 m, which will freeze by mid-winter and may separate lakes with active-layers from lakes with shallow taliks. The second EDR break for the same ice thickness is at a lake depth of 2.9 m, which may represent the depth where winter thermal stratification becomes notable (greater than 1 °C) and possibly indicative of lakes that have well developed taliks that store and release more heat. We then combined these ice-covered and open-water models to evaluate the sensitivity of MABT to varying lake and climate forcing scenarios and hindcast longer-term patterns of lake bed warming. This analysis showed that MABT in shallow lakes were most sensitive to changes in ice thickness, whereas ice thickness had minimal impact on deeper lakes and variation in summer air temperature had a very small impact on MABT across all lake depths. Using this model, forced with Barrow climate data, suggests that shallow lake beds (1-m depth) have warmed substantially over the last 30 years (0.8 °C / decade) and more importantly now have an MABT that exceeds 0 °C. Deeper lake beds (3-m depth), however, are suggested to be warming at a much slower rate (0.3 °C / decade), compared to both air temperature (0.8 °C/ decade) and permafrost (0.6 °C/ decade). This contrasting sensitivity and responses of lake thermal regimes relative to surrounding permafrost thermal regimes paint a dramatic and dynamic picture of an evolving Arctic land surface as climate change progresses. We suggest that the most rapid areas of permafrost degradation in Arctic coastal lowlands are below shallow lakes and this response is driven primarily by changing winter conditions. References: Brewer, M. C. (1958), The thermal regime of an arctic lake, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, 39, 278-284. Romanovsky, V. E., S. L. Smith, H. H. Christiansen, N. I. Shiklomanov, D. A. Streletskiy, D. S. Drozdov, G. V. Malkova, N. G. Oberman, A. L. Kholodov, and S. S. Marchenko, (2015). The Arctic Terrestrial Permafrost in “State of the Climate in 2014” . Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96, 7, 139-S141, 2015 Wendler, G., B. Moore, and K. Galloway (2014), Strong temperature increase and shrinking sea ice in Arctic Alaska, The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 8, 7-15

Decadal-scale hotspot methane ebullition within lakes following abrupt permafrost thaw

Thermokarst lakes accelerate deep permafrost thaw and the mobilization of previously frozen soil organic carbon. This leads to microbial decomposition and large releases of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) that enhance climate warming. However, the time scale of permafrost-carbon emissions following thaw is not well known but is important for understanding how abrupt permafrost thaw impacts climate feedback. We combined field measurements and radiocarbon dating of CH4 ebullition with (a) an assessment of lake area changes delineated from high-resolution (1–2.5 m) optical imagery and (b) geophysical measurements of thaw bulbs (taliks) to determine the spatiotemporal dynamics of hotspot-seep CH4 ebullition in interior Alaska thermokarst lakes. Hotspot seeps are characterized as point-sources of high ebullition that release 14C-depleted CH4 from deep (up to tens of meters) within lake thaw bulbs year-round. Thermokarst lakes, initiated by a variety of factors, doubled in number and increased 37.5% in area from 1949 to 2009 as climate warmed. Approximately 80% of contemporary CH4 hotspot seeps were associated with this recent thermokarst activity, occurring where 60 years of abrupt thaw took place as a result of new and expanded lake areas. Hotspot occurrence diminished with distance from thermokarst lake margins. We attribute older 14C ages of CH4 released from hotspot seeps in older, expanding thermokarst lakes (14CCH4 20 079 ± 1227 years BP, mean ± standard error (s.e.m.) years) to deeper taliks (thaw bulbs) compared to younger 14CCH4 in new lakes (14CCH4 8526 ± 741 years BP) with shallower taliks. We find that smaller, non-hotspot ebullition seeps have younger 14C ages (expanding lakes 7473 ± 1762 years; new lakes 4742 ± 803 years) and that their emissions span a larger historic range. These observations provide a first-order constraint on the magnitude and decadal-scale duration of CH4-hotspot seep emissions following formation of thermokarst lakes as climate warms

Temperature sensitivity of methanogenesis in a thermokarst lake sediment core

Little is known about temperature sensitivity of permafrost organic carbon (OC) mineralization over time scales of years to centuries following thaw. Due to their formation and thaw histories, taliks (thaw bulbs) beneath thermokarst lakes provide a unique natural laboratory from which to examine how permafrost thawed in saturated anaerobic conditions responds to changes in temperature following long periods of time since thaw. We anaerobically incubated samples from a 590 cm thermokarst lake sediment core near Fairbanks, Alaska at four temperatures (0, 3, 10, and 25 ºC) bracketing observed talik temperatures. We show that since initial thaw ~400 yr BP CH4 production shifts from being most sensitive to at lower (0-3 ºC; Q10-EC=1.15E7) temperatures to being most sensitive at higher (10-25 ºC; Q10-EC=67) temperatures. Frozen sediments collected from beneath the talik, thawed at the commencement of the incubation, had significant (p ≤ 0.05) increases in CH4 production rates at lower temperatures but did not show significant CH4 production rate increases at higher temperatures (10-25 ºC). We hypothesize the thawing of sediments removed a major barrier to C mineralization, leading to rapid initial permafrost C mineralization and preferential mineralization of the most biolabile OC compounds. In contrast, sediments which had been thawed beneath the lake for longer periods of time did not experience statistically significant increases in CH4 production at lower temperatures (0-10 ºC), but had high temperature sensitivities at higher temperatures (10-25 ºC). We believe these rate increases are due to warmer temperatures in the experimental incubations crossing activation energy thresholds, allowing previously recalcitrant fractions of OC to be utilized, and/or the presence of different microbial communities adapted to thawed sediments. Recently-deposited sediments at shallow depths in the lake core experienced increases in CH4 production across all incubation temperatures (Q10-ST=4.4)

Threshold sensitivity of shallow Arctic lakes and sublake permafrost to changing winter climate

Interactions and feedbacks between abundant surface waters and permafrost fundamentally shape lowland Arctic landscapes. Sublake permafrost is maintained when the maximum ice thickness (MIT) exceeds lake depth and mean annual bed temperatures (MABTs) remain below freezing. However, declining MIT since the 1970s is likely causing talik development below shallow lakes. Here we show high-temperature sensitivity to winter ice growth at the water-sediment interface of shallow lakes based on year-round lake sensor data. Empirical model experiments suggest that shallow (1m depth) lakes have warmed substantially over the last 30years (2.4°C), withMABT above freezing5 of the last 7years.This is incomparison to slower ratesofwarming in deeper (3 m) lakes (0.9°C), with already well-developed taliks. Our findings indicate that permafrost below shallow lakes has already begun crossing a critical thawing threshold approximately 70 years prior to predicted terrestrial permafrost thaw in northern Alaska

Contrasting lake ice responses to winter climate indicate future variability and trends on the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain

© 2018 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Strong winter warming has dominated recent patterns of climate change along the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska. The full impact of arctic winters may be best manifest by freshwater ice growth and the extent to which abundant shallow ACP lakes freeze solid with bedfast ice by the end of winter. For example, winter conditions of 2016-17 produced record low extents of bedfast ice across the ACP. In addition to high air temperatures, the causes varied from deep snow accumulation on the Barrow Peninsula to high late season rainfall and lake levels farther east on the ACP. In contrast, the previous winter of 2015-16 was also warm, but low snowpack and high winds caused relatively thick lake ice to develop and corresponding high extents of bedfast ice on the ACP. This recent comparison of extreme variation in lake ice responses between two adjacent regions and years in the context of long-term climate and ice records highlights the complexity associated with weather conditions and climate change in the Arctic. Recent observations of maximum ice thickness (MIT) compared to simulated MIT from Weather Research and Forcing (Polar-WRF) model output show greater departure toward thinner ice than predicted by models, underscoring this uncertainty and the need for sustained observations. Lake ice thickness and the extent of bedfast ice not only indicate the impact of arctic winters, but also directly affect sublake permafrost, winter water supply for industry, and overwinter habitat availability. Therefore, tracking freshwater ice responses provides a comprehensive picture of winter, as well as summer, weather conditions and climate change with implications to broader landscape, ecosystem, and resource responses in the Arctic

Multi-Dimensional Remote Sensing Analysis Documents Beaver-Induced Permafrost Degradation, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Beavers have established themselves as a key component of low arctic ecosystems over the past several decades. Beavers are widely recognized as ecosystem engineers, but their effects on permafrost-dominated landscapes in the Arctic remain unclear. In this study, we document the occurrence, reconstruct the timing, and highlight the effects of beaver activity on a small creek valley confined by ice-rich permafrost on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska using multi-dimensional remote sensing analysis of satellite (Landsat-8, Sentinel-2, Planet CubeSat, and DigitalGlobe Inc./MAXAR) and unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) imagery. Beaver activity along the study reach of Swan Lake Creek appeared between 2006 and 2011 with the construction of three dams. Between 2011 and 2017, beaver dam numbers increased, with the peak occurring in 2017 (n = 9). Between 2017 and 2019, the number of dams decreased (n = 6), while the average length of the dams increased from 20 to 33 m. Between 4 and 20 August 2019, following a nine-day period of record rainfall (>125 mm), the well-established dam system failed, triggering the formation of a beaver-induced permafrost degradation feature. During the decade of beaver occupation between 2011 and 2021, the creek valley widened from 33 to 180 m (~450% increase) and the length of the stream channel network increased from ~0.6 km to more than 1.9 km (220% increase) as a result of beaver engineering and beaver-induced permafrost degradation. Comparing vegetation (NDVI) and snow (NDSI) derived indices from Sentinel-2 time-series data acquired between 2017 and 2021 for the beaver-induced permafrost degradation feature and a nearby unaffected control site, showed that peak growing season NDVI was lowered by 23% and that it extended the length of the snow-cover period by 19 days following the permafrost disturbance. Our analysis of multi-dimensional remote sensing data highlights several unique aspects of beaver engineering impacts on ice-rich permafrost landscapes. Our detailed reconstruction of the beaver-induced permafrost degradation event may also prove useful for identifying degradation of ice-rich permafrost in optical time-series datasets across regional scales. Future field- and remote sensing-based observations of this site, and others like it, will provide valuable information for the NSF-funded Arctic Beaver Observation Network (A-BON) and the third phase of the NASA Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) Field Campaign

Permafrost microbial communities and functional genes are structured by latitudinal and soil geochemical gradients.

Permafrost underlies approximately one quarter of Northern Hemisphere terrestrial surfaces and contains 25-50% of the global soil carbon (C) pool. Permafrost soils and the C stocks within are vulnerable to ongoing and future projected climate warming. The biogeography of microbial communities inhabiting permafrost has not been examined beyond a small number of sites focused on local-scale variation. Permafrost is different from other soils. Perennially frozen conditions in permafrost dictate that microbial communities do not turn over quickly, thus possibly providing strong linkages to past environments. Thus, the factors structuring the composition and function of microbial communities may differ from patterns observed in other terrestrial environments. Here, we analyzed 133 permafrost metagenomes from North America, Europe, and Asia. Permafrost biodiversity and taxonomic distribution varied in relation to pH, latitude and soil depth. The distribution of genes differed by latitude, soil depth, age, and pH. Genes that were the most highly variable across all sites were associated with energy metabolism and C-assimilation. Specifically, methanogenesis, fermentation, nitrate reduction, and replenishment of citric acid cycle intermediates. This suggests that adaptations to energy acquisition and substrate availability are among some of the strongest selective pressures shaping permafrost microbial communities. The spatial variation in metabolic potential has primed communities for specific biogeochemical processes as soils thaw due to climate change, which could cause regional- to global- scale variation in C and nitrogen processing and greenhouse gas emissions