Mixing properties for multivariate Hawkes processes

Properties of strong mixing have been established for the stationary linear Hawkes process in the univariate case, and can serve as a basis for statistical applications. In this paper, we provide the technical arguments needed to extend the proof to the multivariate case. We illustrate these properties by establishing a functional central limit theorem for multivariate Hawkes processes

Changes in the Molecular Epidemiology of Pediatric Bacterial Meningitis in Senegal After Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Introduction.

BACKGROUND: Bacterial meningitis is a major cause of mortality among children under 5 years of age. Senegal is part of World Health Organization-coordinated sentinel site surveillance for pediatric bacterial meningitis surveillance. We conducted this analysis to describe the epidemiology and etiology of bacterial meningitis among children less than 5 years in Senegal from 2010 and to 2016. METHODS: Children who met the inclusion criteria for suspected meningitis at the Centre Hospitalier National d'Enfants Albert Royer, Senegal, from 2010 to 2016 were included. Cerebrospinal fluid specimens were collected from suspected cases examined by routine bacteriology and molecular assays. Serotyping, antimicrobial susceptibility testing, and whole-genome sequencing were performed. RESULTS: A total of 1013 children were admitted with suspected meningitis during the surveillance period. Streptococcus pneumoniae, Neisseria meningitidis, and Haemophilus accounted for 66% (76/115), 25% (29/115), and 9% (10/115) of all confirmed cases, respectively. Most of the suspected cases (63%; 639/1013) and laboratory-confirmed (57%; 66/115) cases occurred during the first year of life. Pneumococcal meningitis case fatality rate was 6-fold higher than that of meningococcal meningitis (28% vs 5%). The predominant pneumococcal lineage causing meningitis was sequence type 618 (n = 7), commonly found among serotype 1 isolates. An ST 2174 lineage that included serotypes 19A and 23F was resistant to trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole. CONCLUSIONS: There has been a decline in pneumococcal meningitis post-pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction in Senegal. However, disease caused by pathogens covered by vaccines in widespread use still persists. There is need for continued effective monitoring of vaccine-preventable meningitis

Software Implementation of a Code-Based Key Encapsulation Mechanism from Binary QD Generalized Srivastava Codes

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Analysis of a Dengue Virus Outbreak in Rosso, Senegal 2021

Senegal is hyperendemic for dengue. Since 2017, outbreaks have been noticed annually in many regions around the country, marked by the co-circulation of DENV1-3. On 8 October 2021, a Dengue virus outbreak in the Rosso health post (sentinel site of the syndromic surveillance network) located in the north of the country was notified to the WHO Collaborating Center for arboviruses and hemorrhagic fever viruses at Institut Pasteur de Dakar. A multidisciplinary team was then sent for epidemiological and virologic investigations. This study describes the results from investigations during an outbreak in Senegal using a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) for the combined detection of dengue virus non-structural protein 1 (NS1) and IgM/IgG. For confirmation, samples were also tested by real-time RT-PCR and IgM ELISA at the reference lab in Dakar. qRT-PCR positive samples were subjected to whole genome sequencing using nanopore technology. Virologic analysis scored 102 positives cases (RT-PCR, NS1 antigen detection and/or IgM) out of 173 enrolled patients; interestingly, virus serotyping showed that the outbreak was caused by the DENV-1, a serotype different from DENV-2 involved during the outbreak in Rosso three years earlier, indicating a serotype replacement. Nearly all field-tested NS1 positives samples were confirmed by qRT-PCR with a concordance of 92.3%. Whole genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of strains suggested a re-introduction in Rosso of a DENV-1 strain different to the one responsible for the outbreak in the Louga area five years before. Findings call for improved dengue virus surveillance in Senegal, with a wide deployment of DENV antigenic tests, which allow easy on-site diagnosis of suspected cases and early detection of outbreaks. This work highlights the need for continuous monitoring of circulating serotypes which is crucial for a better understanding of viral epidemiology around the country

The Spatiotemporal Distribution and Molecular Characterization of Circulating Dengue Virus Serotypes/Genotypes in Senegal from 2019 to 2023

Dengue virus is becoming a major public health threat worldwide, principally in Africa. From 2016 to 2020, 23 outbreaks were reported in Africa, principally in West Africa. In Senegal, dengue outbreaks have been reported yearly since 2017. Data about the circulating serotypes and their spatial and temporal distribution were limited to outbreaks that occurred between 2017 and 2018. Herein, we describe up-to-date molecular surveillance of circulating DENV serotypes in Senegal between 2019 to 2023 and their temporal and spatial distribution around the country. For this purpose, suspected DENV-positive samples were collected and subjected to dengue detection and serotyping using RT-qPCR methods. Positive samples were used for temporal and spatial mapping. A subset of DENV+ samples were then sequenced and subjected to phylogenetic analysis. Results show a co-circulation of three DENV serotypes with an overall predominance of DENV-3. In terms of abundance, DENV-3 is followed by DENV-1, with scarce cases of DENV-2 from February 2019 to February 2022. Interestingly, data show the extinction of both serotype 1 and serotype 2 and the only circulation of DENV-3 from March 2022 to February 2023. At the genotype level, the analysis shows that sequenced strains belong to same genotype as previously described: Senegalese DENV-1 strains belong to genotype V, DENV-2 strains to the cosmopolitan genotype, and DENV-3 strains to Genotype III. Interestingly, newly obtained DENV 1–3 sequences clustered in different clades within genotypes. This co-circulation of strains belonging to different clades could have an effect on virus epidemiology and transmission dynamics. Overall, our results highlight DENV serotype replacement by DENV-3, accompanied by a wider geographic distribution, in Senegal. These results highlight the importance of virus genomic surveillance and call for further viral fitness studies using both in vitro and in vivo models, as well as in-depth phylogeographic studies to uncover the virus dispersal patterns across the country

Re-Emergence of Dengue Serotype 3 in the Context of a Large Religious Gathering Event in Touba, Senegal

Dengue virus (DENV) was detected in Senegal in 1979 for the first time. Since 2017, unprecedented frequent outbreaks of DENV were noticed yearly. In this context, epidemiological and molecular evolution data are paramount to decipher the virus diffusion route. In the current study, we focused on a dengue outbreak which occurred in Senegal in 2018 in the context of a large religious gathering with 263 confirmed DENV cases out of 832 collected samples, including 25 life-threatening cases and 2 deaths. It was characterized by a co-circulation of dengue serotypes 1 and 3. Phylogenetic analysis based on the E gene revealed that the main detected serotype in Touba was DENV-3 and belonged to Genotype III. Bayesian phylogeographic analysis was performed and suggested one viral introduction around 2017.07 (95% HPD = 2016.61–2017.57) followed by cryptic circulation before the identification of the first case on 1 October 2018. DENV-3 strains are phylogenetically related, with strong phylogenetic links between strains retrieved from Burkina Faso and other West African countries. These phylogenetic data substantiate epidemiological data of the origin of DENV-3 and its spread between African countries and subsequent diffusion after religious mass events. The study also highlighted the usefulness of a mobile laboratory during the outbreak response, allowing rapid diagnosis and resulting in improved patient management

Emergence of Crimean–Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus in Eastern Senegal in 2022

Crimean–Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF), the most widespread tick-borne viral human infection, poses a threat to global health. In this study, clinical samples collected through national surveillance systems were screened for acute CCHF virus (CCHFV) infection using RT-PCR and for exposure using ELISA. For any CCHF-positive sample, livestock and tick samples were also collected in the neighborhood of the confirmed case and tested using ELISA and RT-PCR, respectively. Genome sequencing and phylogenetic analyses were also performed on samples with positive RT-PCR results. In Eastern Senegal, two human cases and one Hyalomma tick positive for CCHF were identified and a seroprevalence in livestock ranging from 9.33% to 45.26% was detected. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that the human strain belonged to genotype I based on the available L segment. However, the tick strain showed a reassortant profile, with the L and M segments belonging to genotype I and the S segment belonging to genotype III. Our data also showed that our strains clustered with strains isolated in different countries, including Mauritania. Therefore, our findings confirmed the high genetic variability inside the CCHF genotypes and their introduction to Senegal from other countries. They also indicate an increasing CCHF threat in Senegal and emphasize the need to reinforce surveillance using a one-health approach

Human and Livestock Surveillance Revealed the Circulation of Rift Valley Fever Virus in Agnam, Northern Senegal, 2021

The mosquito-borne disease caused by the Rift Valley Fever Virus (RVFV) is a viral hemorrhagic fever that affects humans and animals. In 1987, RVFV emerged in Mauritania, which caused the first RVFV outbreak in West Africa. This outbreak was shortly followed by reported cases in humans and livestock in Senegal. Animal trade practices with neighboring Mauritania suggest northern regions of Senegal are at high risk for RVF. In this study, we aim to conduct a molecular and serological survey of RVFV in humans and livestock in Agnam (northeastern Senegal) by RT-PCR (reverse transcription real-time polymerase chain reaction) and ELISA (Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay), respectively. Of the two hundred fifty-five human sera, one (0.39%) tested RVFV IgM positive, while fifty-three (20.78%) tested positive for RVFV IgG. For animal monitoring, out of 30 sheep recorded and sampled over the study period, 20 (66.67%) showed seroconversion to RVFV IgG antibodies, notably during the rainy season. The presence of antibodies increased significantly with age in both groups (p < 0.05), as the force of RVF infection (FOI), increased by 16.05% per year for humans and by 80.4% per month for livestock sheep. This study supports the usefulness of setting up a One Health survey for RVF management

Crimean&ndash;Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus Survey in Humans, Ticks, and Livestock in Agnam (Northeastern Senegal) from February 2021 to March 2022

Crimean&ndash;Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) is widespread in Asia, Europe, and Africa. In Senegal, sporadic cases of CCHFV have been reported since 1960. Bordering Mauritania in northeastern Senegal, Agnam is an arid area in the region of Matam where CCHFV is endemic, which harbors a pastoralist community. Given the drought conditions of Agnam, inhabitants are in constant movement with their animals in search of pasture, which brings them into contact with pathogens such as arboviruses. To identify CCHFV in this area, we established a One Health site in order to analyze animal livestock, ticks and human samples collected over a one-year period by qRT-PCR and ELISA. Our analysis showed one (1/364) patient carried anti-CCHFV IgM and thirty-seven carried anti-CCHFV IgG (37/364). In livestock, anti-CCHFV IgG was detected in 13 (38.24%) of 34 sentinel sheep. The risk of CCHFV infection increased significatively with age in humans (p-value = 0.00117) and sheep (p-value = 1.18 &times; 10&minus;11). Additional risk factors for CCHFV infection in sheep were dry seasons (p-value = 0.004) and time of exposure (p-value = 0.007). Furthermore, we detected a total of three samples with CCHFV RNA within Rhipicephalus evertsi evertsi and Rhipicephalus guilhoni tick species. Our results highlighted the usefulness of a One Health survey of CCHFV in pastoral communities at risk of arboviruses