A Holistic Approach to Forecasting Wholesale Energy Market Prices

Electricity market price predictions enable energy market participants to shape their consumption or supply while meeting their economic and environmental objectives. By utilizing the basic properties of the supply-demand matching process performed by grid operators, known as Optimal Power Flow (OPF), we develop a methodology to recover energy market's structure and predict the resulting nodal prices by using only publicly available data, specifically grid-wide generation type mix, system load, and historical prices. Our methodology uses the latest advancements in statistical learning to cope with high dimensional and sparse real power grid topologies, as well as scarce, public market data, while exploiting structural characteristics of the underlying OPF mechanism. Rigorous validations using the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) market data reveal a strong correlation between the grid level mix and corresponding market prices, resulting in accurate day-ahead predictions of real time prices. The proposed approach demonstrates remarkable proximity to the state-of-the-art industry benchmark while assuming a fully decentralized, market-participant perspective. Finally, we recognize the limitations of the proposed and other evaluated methodologies in predicting large price spike values.Comment: 14 pages, 14 figures. Accepted for publication in IEEE Transactions on Power System

Labour and Product Market Reforms in the Economy with Distortionary Taxation

It is widely accepted that in order to improve the economic position of the EU relative to the USA certain structural reforms need to be undertaken, mainly in the labour market. However few EU countries have undertaken such reforms. The reason lies in the fact that those reforms are going to be costly in terms of economic performance, unemployment and hence the cost of financing them - at least in the short term. Blanchard and Giavazzi (2003) develop a model based on imperfect competition in both product and labour markets in order to show the impact of deregulation on the economy. However they do not consider the question of how to finance such reforms or overcome the short run costs, a key consideration if the short run costs are large relative to the long run gains. We extend their model by including the effects of another inevitable source of imperfections: distortionary taxation - not only the most likely candidate for reform, but also the most likely instrument for financing the restructuring process. By extending the model in this way we can establish formally that reforms imply significant short run costs as well as long run gains; that (political opposition apart) the financing of such reforms will be the main stumbling block. We come to a number of conclusions which reverse the Blanchard and Giavazzi results; and find that, in addition, the composition of the reform package matters, as does the distribution of the tax burden. This model therefore supplies new results on the design and sequencing of reforms.Structural Reform, Wage Bargains, Short vs Long Run Sustainability.

Toksikologija bioregulatora kao potencijalnih bioloških agensa

Bioregulators or modulators are biochemical compounds such as peptides, that occur naturally in organisms. Advances in biotechnology create the potential for the misuse of peptide bioregulators in offensive biological weapons programmes. Bioregulators are a new class of weapons that can damage the nervous system, alter mood, trigger psychological changes and kill. Over the last twenty years, neuroscience has produced an explosion of knowledge about receptor systems in the nerve cells that are of critical importance in receiving chemical transmitter substances released by other nerve cells. Bioregulators are closely related to substances normally found in the body that regulates normal biological processes. The potential military or terrorist use of bioregulators is similar to that of toxins. Together with increased research into toxins, the bioregulators have also been studied and synthesized. This paper presents a review of bioregulators that could be used in terrorist or other hostile activities.Bioregulatori ili modulatori su biokemijski spojevi kao što su peptidi koji se prirodno pojavljuju u raznim organizmima. Razvoj biotehnologije omoguæava zloporabu peptidnih bioregulatora u ofenzivnim biološkim ratnim programima. Bioregulatori su nova vrsta oružja koja mogu oštetiti živčani sustav, mijenjati raspoloženje i ponašanje, uzrokovati ozbiljne psihološke promjene i na kraju ubiti. Posljednjih dvadeset i više godina s razvojem znanosti o neurologiji nastupa prava eksplozija znanja o sustavima receptora živčanih stanica koja su od velike važnosti u otkrivanju kemijskih transmiterskih tvari što oslobađaju druge živčane stanice. Bioregulatori su tvari slične onima koje se prirodno nalaze u organizmu a koje reguliraju biološke procese. Moguænost uporabe bioregulatora u ratne ili terorističke svrhe slična je kao kod toksina. Zajedno s porastom istraživanja toksina istraživani su i sintetizirani bioregulatori. Ovaj rad prikazuje evaluaciju bioregulatora koji bi se mogli upotrijebiti u nekom od terorističkih napada ili kao biološki ratni agens u nemiroljubivim aktivnostima

Applications of Optimization Under Uncertainty Methods on Power System Planning Problems

This dissertation consists of two published journal paper, both on transmission expansion planning, and a report on distribution network hardening. We first discuss our studies of two optimization criteria for the transmission planning problem with a simplified representation of load and the forecast generation investment additions within the robust optimization paradigm. The objective is to determine either the minimum of the maximum investment requirement or the maximum regret with all sources of uncertainty explicitly represented. In this way, transmission planners can determine optimal planning decisions that are robust against all sources of uncertainty. We use a two layer algorithm to solve the resulting trilevel optimization problems. We also construct a new robust transmission planning model that considers generation investment more realistically to improve the quantification and visualization of uncertainty and the impacts of environmental policies. With this model, we can explore the effect of uncertainty in both the size and the location of candidate generation additions. The corresponding algorithm we develop takes advantage of the structural characteristics of the model so as to obtain a computationally efficient methodology. The two robust optimization tools provide new capabilities to transmission planners for the development of strategies that explicitly account for various sources of uncertainty. We illustrate the application of the two optimization models and solution schemes on a set of representative case studies. These studies give a good idea of the usefulness of these tools and show their practical worth in the assessment of ``what if\u27\u27 cases. We compare the performance of the minimax cost approach and the minimax regret approach under different characterizations of uncertain parameters. In addition, we also present extensive numerical studies on an IEEE 118-bus test system and the WECC 240-bus system to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed decision support methods. The case study results are particularly useful to understand the impacts of each individual investment plan on the power system\u27s overall transmission adequacy in meeting the demand of the trade with the power output units without violation of the physical limits of the grid. In the report on distribution network hardening, a two-stage stochastic optimization model is proposed. Transmission and distribution networks are essential infrastructures to modern society. In the United States alone, there are there are more than 200,000 miles of high voltage transmission lines and numerous distribution lines. The power network spans the whole country. Such vast networks are vulnerable to disruptions caused by natural disasters. Hardening of distribution lines could significantly reduce the impact of natural disasters on the operation of power systems. However, due to the limited budget, it is impossible to upgrade the whole power network. Thus, intelligent allocation of resources is crucial. Optimal allocation of limited budget between different hardening methods on different distribution lines is explored

Toksikologija bioregulatora kao potencijalnih bioloških agensa

Bioregulators or modulators are biochemical compounds such as peptides, that occur naturally in organisms. Advances in biotechnology create the potential for the misuse of peptide bioregulators in offensive biological weapons programmes. Bioregulators are a new class of weapons that can damage the nervous system, alter mood, trigger psychological changes and kill. Over the last twenty years, neuroscience has produced an explosion of knowledge about receptor systems in the nerve cells that are of critical importance in receiving chemical transmitter substances released by other nerve cells. Bioregulators are closely related to substances normally found in the body that regulates normal biological processes. The potential military or terrorist use of bioregulators is similar to that of toxins. Together with increased research into toxins, the bioregulators have also been studied and synthesized. This paper presents a review of bioregulators that could be used in terrorist or other hostile activities.Bioregulatori ili modulatori su biokemijski spojevi kao što su peptidi koji se prirodno pojavljuju u raznim organizmima. Razvoj biotehnologije omoguæava zloporabu peptidnih bioregulatora u ofenzivnim biološkim ratnim programima. Bioregulatori su nova vrsta oružja koja mogu oštetiti živčani sustav, mijenjati raspoloženje i ponašanje, uzrokovati ozbiljne psihološke promjene i na kraju ubiti. Posljednjih dvadeset i više godina s razvojem znanosti o neurologiji nastupa prava eksplozija znanja o sustavima receptora živčanih stanica koja su od velike važnosti u otkrivanju kemijskih transmiterskih tvari što oslobađaju druge živčane stanice. Bioregulatori su tvari slične onima koje se prirodno nalaze u organizmu a koje reguliraju biološke procese. Moguænost uporabe bioregulatora u ratne ili terorističke svrhe slična je kao kod toksina. Zajedno s porastom istraživanja toksina istraživani su i sintetizirani bioregulatori. Ovaj rad prikazuje evaluaciju bioregulatora koji bi se mogli upotrijebiti u nekom od terorističkih napada ili kao biološki ratni agens u nemiroljubivim aktivnostima

A new trilevel optimization algorithm for the two-stage robust unit commitment problem

We present a new trilevel optimization algorithm to solve the robust two-stage unit commitment problem. In a robust unit commitment problem, rst stage commitment decisions are made to anticipate the worst case realization of demand uncertainty and minimize operation cost under such scenarios. In our algorithm, we decomposed the trilevel problem into a master problem and a sub-problem. The master problem can be solved as a mixed-integer program and the sub-problem is solved as a linear program with complementary constraints with the big-M method. We then designed numerical experiments to test the performance of our algo- rithm against that of the Benders decomposition algorithm. The experiments shows that our algorithm performs consistently better than the Benders approach

Boron application in red clover (Trifolium pratense L.) seed production

peer-reviewedThis work is part of the research project TR-31016, funded by the Ministry of Science and Technological Development, Republic of Serbia.A field trial with four red clover cultivars was established on acid soil in order to evaluate the effect of foliar boron application on seed yield. The crop received foliar boron treatment during the second growth of the second year at two applications. Although seed yield showed a significant increase in boron-treated plants in 2011 compared with control (26.0%), its relative increase was far higher in 2010 (43.2%), which had increased total rainfall amounts during flowering. Sufficient level of boron supply to red clover plants for seed production has a remarkably positive effect under conditions hampering pollination and fertilisation.Ministry of Science and Technological Development, Republic of Serbi

Selo – slobodan izbor ili sudbina mladih na selu (studija o seoskoj zajednici Vođinci)

The paper presents the results of a survey carried out in the Slavonian village of Vođinci in 2006. The survey focused on the young people’s opinion about the quality of life and disadvantages of living in a rural area, and on their intention to stay in or leave the village. The results indicate that the main drawbacks for the young living in the village are poor working conditions (including unemployment and lack of prospect in agriculture), unavailability of social and cultural amenities, and neglected public areas. The young prefer living in the village and working in a city. They feel socially excluded and remain passive in taking initiative and creating their own future in the village they live in. Women, the young under 20–24 years of age, those from workers’ and farming and large families, those who prefer the city to live and work in, those who believe unemployment is the major problem facing rural communities, and finally those who are not satisfied with their life in the country are the least spatially stable members of the community.U članku se iznose rezultati istraživanja provedenoga metodom ankete 2006. godine u slavonskom selu Vođinci. U središtu pozornosti su mišljenja mladih ljudi o kvaliteti života i nedostacima u selu, te njihove namjere o ostanku/napuštanju sela. Rezultati pokazuju da su u životu mladih u ovom selu najveći nedostaci loši radni uvjeti (uključujući nezaposlenost, pri čemu ne vide svoju budućnost u poljoprivredi), nepostojanje društvenih i kulturnih sadržaja i neuređenost javnih površina. Mladi imaju veće preferencije prema životu u selu, te prema radu u gradu. Oni se osjećaju socijalno isključenima od društva, a istovremeno su pasivni u preuzimanju inicijative i stvaranju vlastite perspektive u selu u kojem žive. U grupi koja kani napustiti selo više je žena, mladih od 20-24 godine, nezaposlenih, onih koji preferiraju grad kao mjesto života i rada, onih koji smatraju nezaposlenost najvećim problemom u selu te onih najnezadovoljnijih svojim životom u selu

Selo – slobodan izbor ili sudbina mladih na selu (studija o seoskoj zajednici Vođinci)

The paper presents the results of a survey carried out in the Slavonian village of Vođinci in 2006. The survey focused on the young people’s opinion about the quality of life and disadvantages of living in a rural area, and on their intention to stay in or leave the village. The results indicate that the main drawbacks for the young living in the village are poor working conditions (including unemployment and lack of prospect in agriculture), unavailability of social and cultural amenities, and neglected public areas. The young prefer living in the village and working in a city. They feel socially excluded and remain passive in taking initiative and creating their own future in the village they live in. Women, the young under 20–24 years of age, those from workers’ and farming and large families, those who prefer the city to live and work in, those who believe unemployment is the major problem facing rural communities, and finally those who are not satisfied with their life in the country are the least spatially stable members of the community.U članku se iznose rezultati istraživanja provedenoga metodom ankete 2006. godine u slavonskom selu Vođinci. U središtu pozornosti su mišljenja mladih ljudi o kvaliteti života i nedostacima u selu, te njihove namjere o ostanku/napuštanju sela. Rezultati pokazuju da su u životu mladih u ovom selu najveći nedostaci loši radni uvjeti (uključujući nezaposlenost, pri čemu ne vide svoju budućnost u poljoprivredi), nepostojanje društvenih i kulturnih sadržaja i neuređenost javnih površina. Mladi imaju veće preferencije prema životu u selu, te prema radu u gradu. Oni se osjećaju socijalno isključenima od društva, a istovremeno su pasivni u preuzimanju inicijative i stvaranju vlastite perspektive u selu u kojem žive. U grupi koja kani napustiti selo više je žena, mladih od 20-24 godine, nezaposlenih, onih koji preferiraju grad kao mjesto života i rada, onih koji smatraju nezaposlenost najvećim problemom u selu te onih najnezadovoljnijih svojim životom u selu