Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Lived experience of young people with epilepsy in Bahir Dar city government hospitals, Ethiopia, a qualitative interview study.

BackgroundEpilepsy is the most common neurological disorder, which is characterized by persistent derangement of the nervous system due to an abrupt excessive discharge of the group of neurons from the cerebrum. For developing young people with epilepsy coping with the challenges of living with epilepsy and adjusting normative tasks associated with adolescence is stressful in all domains of the lives of young people with epilepsy. But in Ethiopia, published literature regarding the lived experience of young people with epilepsy is lacking.ObjectivesThis study aims to explore lived experience of young people with epilepsy.MethodsA qualitative interview study was conducted in Bahir Dar city government specialized and referral Hospitals, from February to April, 2021. Using the rule of saturation, a total of 11 study participants (age 12-24) were selected using hetrogenious types of purposive sampling technique. The data were collected through semi structured interviews technique with the aid of audio recorder. Semi-structured interview guide and observation checklist for care context in health facilities were used. The collected data was transcribed word by word and translated conceptually. The Data were analyzed using thematic approach. The credibility, dependability, Conformability and transferability of the study were assured using different techniques such as peer debriefing, member checking; audit Trail, thick description and purposeful sampling. Atlas- ti version7 software was used to facilitate data analysis.ResultsThe participants' narratives revealed two main themes: 'experiences due epilepsy' and 'coping strategies to wards epilepsy'. Experience due to epilepsy' was described by young people with epilepsy in terms of psychosocial, physical, economical and health care related experiences. They described coping strategies towards epilepsy in terms of finding support from family and society as well as religious institutions and other traditions as copping strategy.ConclusionEven though young people with epilepsy had suffered a lot of hurtful experiences, they reported coping strategies towards epilepsy that include support from various sources. These types of findings have implications for social work interventions for young people living with epilepsy

Magnitude of chronic osteomyelitis and its associated factors in children as diagnosed on X-ray visiting at Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia: A cross-sectional study

Objectives: To assess the magnitude of chronic osteomyelitis and its associated factors in children at Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, in 2022. Methods: A hospital-based cross-sectional study was done between April 15, 2022 and August 15, 2022, in children with an age of 18 years or below, who visited Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital. A total sample size of 168 participants was involved in the study. The random sampling technique was applied to select the study participants. The data were collected from the patients, their charts, and X-ray requests. The data were cleaned, stored, checked for completeness, and entered into EpiData Version 3.1, which were then exported to SPSS Version 23 for analysis. Descriptive analysis was done, and bivariable and multivariable logistic regression were used for analysis. Results: The prevalence of chronic osteomyelitis was found to be 86.3%. The tibia and femur were the most commonly involved bones, and metaphyseal involvement was very common. The most common radiological findings were sequestrum (56%) and involucrum (53%). Of the total patients with radiological evidence of chronic osteomyelitis, 16.6% had complications, the most common of which was a pathologic fracture (12.4%). Being male (adjusted odds ratio = 6.162, 95% confidence interval: 1.12–34.147), being over 10 years old (adjusted odds ratio = 4.048, 95% confidence interval: 1.032–15.886), living in a rural area (adjusted odds ratio = 4.046, 95% confidence interval: 1.236–13.364), having a discharging sinus (adjusted odds ratio = 5.237, 95% confidence interval: 1.393–19.693), having a clinical complaint lasting more than 1 year (adjusted odds ratio = 5.189, 95% confidence interval: 1.247–21.588), and a preceding event of trauma (adjusted odds ratio = =10.363, 95% confidence interval: 1.101–97.509) were the factors associated with chronic osteomyelitis. Conclusion: The prevalence of chronic osteomyelitis is high. In this study, being male, being in the age group above 10 years, having rural residency, having a discharging sinus, having a clinical complaint duration of more than 1 year, and having a preceding event of trauma were the factors associated with chronic osteomyelitis. Therefore, healthcare providers should have a high index of suspicion of chronic osteomyelitis in older male children from rural areas with a chronic discharging sinus following trauma

Lived experiences of disabled individuals living in Bahir Dar City, North West Ethiopia, a phenomenological study.

BackgroundWhen an individual's activities and performances in a normal environment are limited in nature, function, or quality, that person is considered to have a disability. Although many studies on disabled people's lived experiences have been conducted around the world, there is still a significant gap between nations in multiple cases such as culture, economic status, and the recommendation of a previous study in Ethiopia, which is one reason for conducting this research.ObjectivesTo explore the lived experiences of disabled individuals living in Bahir Dar City.MethodsA descriptive phenomenology study design was employed in Bahir Dar city on 15 disabled individuals from November 15 to December 20, 2022. A heterogeneous purposive sampling technique was used to select study participants. Data was collected by using an in-depth interview. The rigor and trustworthiness of the study were maintained by transferability, dependability, credibility, and conformability. Colaizzi's phenomenological analysis method was used for the development of codes and themes. Software (ATLAS. ti 7) version 7.5.6 was used for analysis.ResultFive major themes and fourteen sub-themes were developed that explain lived experiences of disabled individuals. Physical, psychological, social, economic and coping strategy experiences were major themes. Depression and negative emotional behavior were sub-themes under psychological experiences. Unemployment with the absence of a workplace and inadequate income were sub-themes under the economical experiences of participants.ConclusionIn this qualitative interview study, the lived experience of individuals living with disability in Bahir Dar city were addressed in terms of the physical, psychological, social, economic, and coping mechanism experience of disabled individuals. Special needs professionals and social support groups should have been assigned and present in all institutions to serve the PwDs to assure equal accessibility of services

Behavioral response for condom use messages to prevent human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome among Bahir Dar City High School students, North West Ethiopia, 2022: Application of the extended parallel process model

Objective: The human immunodeficiency virus has become one of the world’s most serious health and development challenges. Human immunodeficiency virus prevention has not received sufficient attention, and the prevalence of human behavioral virus infections among Ethiopian high school and preparatory students has also increased. The aim of this study was to assess behavioral responses to condom use messages to prevent human immune virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome among Bahir Dar city high school and preparatory students using the extended parallel process model, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, 2022. Methodology: This institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted from 15 November to 15 December 2022, in Bahir Dar city. The data were collected from 601 participants. A multi-stage sampling technique was used to select the study participants. Data were entered into Epi-Info version 7.2.5 and exported to SPSS version 26 for analysis. Descriptive statistics, percentages, and frequencies were calculated. Bivariable logistic regression was performed to identify variables candidates for multivariable logistic regression at p -values less than 0.25, and multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with the outcome variable at p- values < 0.05. A 95% confidence interval and odds ratio were used for the interpretation of the association. Result: The response rate of the respondents was 94.9%. The behavioral response for condom use messages was affected by grade level adjusted odds ratio, 0.473, 95% CI (0.252–0.886), knowledge adjusted odds ratio, 2.627, 95% CI (1.788–3.859), attitude adjusted odds ratio, 3.19, 95% CI (2.145–4.744), efficacy adjusted odds ratio, 3.286, 95% CI (2.03–5.339), and threat adjusted odds ratio, 0.249, 95% CI (0.167–0.369). The behavioral response for condom use messages was associated with danger control. Conclusion: The danger control response is 60.9%. Grade level, knowledge, attitude, and perceived and threat efficacies were independent predictors of danger control. Therefore, messages must aim to enhance threat component perception with appropriate efficacy to control danger and developed using scientific health communication strategies to promote behavioral change

Individual and community level factors associated with modern contraceptive utilization among married women in the emerging region of Ethiopia: a multilevel mixed effects analysis of the 2019 Ethiopia Mini-Demographic and health survey

Abstract Background A demonstrated technique to enhance reproductive health and economic progress is through ensuring that family planning services are accessible universally. Those studies that used Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) data did not assess individual and community-level factors in contraceptive utilization. Thus, the study employs a multilevel mixed effects analysis approach, which allows for the examination of individual and community-level factors that influence contraceptive utilization. Methods This study analyzed the 2019 Ethiopia Min Demographic and Health Survey datasets. A total of 1916 married women in the 2019 surveys were included in the analysis. The data were analyzed using Stata version 17.0. The data were analyzed using Multi-level mixed-effect logistic regression to identify the individual and community-level factors associated with modern contraceptive utilization. An adjusted odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval was used to. Show the strength and direction of the association and statistical significance was declared at a P value less than 0.05. Results Factors significantly associated with modern contraceptive utilization were; Muslim and protestant followers [AOR = 0.31, 95% CI: (0.134, 0.714)] and [AOR = 0.35, 95% CI: (0.173, 0.691)] respectively, women with no education (OR = 0.46; 95% CI: 0.293, 0.710), those women who belong to the poor and middle wealth of household [AOR = 0.35, 95% CI: (0.237, 0.527)] and [AOR = 0.56, 95% CI: (0.347, 0.919)] respectively, women who had one to five and greater than or equal to six living children [AOR = 11.36, 95% CI:(2.119, 60.918)] and [AOR = 7.44, 95% CI:(1.437, 38.547)]respectively, Women in clusters poor wealth status [AOR = 0.40, 95% CI: (0.183, 0.875)] and women who belong to the Somali region [AOR = 0.20, 95% CI: (0.0.070, 0.506)]. Conclusion The study revealed that both individual and community-level factors determined modern contraceptive utilization. At the individual level, the religion of women, educational status, the wealth of the household, and the total number of living children were significantly associated with modern contraceptive utilization. At community-level factors, community wealth status and belonging to the Somali region were significantly associated with modern contraceptive utilization. The findings suggest that interventions aimed at increasing modern contraceptive utilization should target women with lower levels of education, those living in households with lower wealth, and those with larger families. Additionally, efforts should be made to improve access to modern contraceptives in communities with lower wealth status and in regions where traditional beliefs may hinder their use

Predictors of suicidal ideation, attempts among adults living with HIV attending ART follow-ups at Tirunesh Beijing General Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study

Objective To assess the magnitude of suicidal ideation, attempts and associated factors among adults living with HIV attending antiretroviral therapy follow-ups at Tirunesh Beijing General Hospital, Addis Ababa.Design Hospital-based observational, descriptive, cross-sectional study was conducted.Setting A study was conducted in Tirunesh Beijing General Hospital, Addis Ababa from 8 February 2022 to 10 July 2022.Participants Two hundred and thirty-seven HIV-positive youth were recruited for interviews, using the systematic random sampling technique. The Composite International Diagnostic Interview was used to assess suicide. Patient Health Questionnaire-9, the Oslo social support and HIV perceived stigma scale instruments were used to assess the factors. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions were computed to assess factors associated with suicidal ideation and attempt. Statistical significance was declared at p value &lt;0.05.Results The finding of the study revealed magnitude of suicide ideation and suicide attempt was 22.8% and 13.5%, respectively. Disclosure status (adjusted odd ratio (AOR)=3.60, 95% CI 1.44 to 9.01), history of using substances (AOR)=2.86, 95% CI 1.07 to 7.61), living alone (AOR=6.47, 95% CI 2.31 to 18.10) and having comorbidity or other opportunistic infection (AOR=3.74, 95% CI 1.32 to 10.52) are factors associated with suicide ideation while disclosure status (AOR=5.02, 95% CI 1.95 to 12.94), living arrangement (AOR=3.82, 95% CI 1.29 to 11.31) and depression history is a factor associated with suicide attempts (AOR=3.37, 95% CI 1.09 to 10.40).Conclusion The finding of the study indicated the magnitude of suicide ideation and attempt is high among the subjects included in this study. Disclosure status, history of using substances, living alone and having comorbidity or other opportunistic infection are factors associated with suicide ideation while disclosure status, living arrangement and depression history are factors associated with a suicide attempt

Association between health workers TB related training and TB infection control practice.

Association between health workers TB related training and TB infection control practice.</p

Forest plot of the pooled magnitude of tuberculosis infection control practice in Ethiopia.

Forest plot of the pooled magnitude of tuberculosis infection control practice in Ethiopia.</p

Association between health workers TB related knowledge and TB infection control practice.

Association between health workers TB related knowledge and TB infection control practice.</p