Assessment of associations between transition diseases and reproductive performance of dairy cows using survival analysis and decision tree algorithms

This study aimed to evaluate the associations between transition cow conditions and diseases TD with fertility in Holstein cows, and to compare analytic methods for doing so. Kaplan-Meier, Cox proportional hazard, and decision tree models were used to analyze the associations of TD with the pregnancy risk at 120 and 210 DIM from a 1-year cohort with 1946 calvings from one farm. The association between TD and fertility was evaluated as follows: 1 cows with TD whether complicated with another TD or not TD-all, versus healthy cows, and 2 cows with uncomplicated TD TD-single, versus cows with multiple TD TD+; complicated cases, versus healthy cows. The occurrence of twins, milk fever, retained placenta, metritis, ketosis, displaced abomasum, and clinical mastitis were recorded. Using Kaplan-Meier models, in primiparous cows the 120 DIM pregnancy risk was 62% (95% CI: 57-67 %) for healthy animals. This was not significantly different for TD-single (58%; 95% CI: 51-66 %) but was reduced for TD+ (45%; 95% CI: 33-60 %). Among healthy primiparous cows, 80% (95% CI: 75-84 %) were pregnant by 210 DIM, but pregnancy risk at that time was reduced for primiparous cows with TD-single (72%; 95% CI: 65-79 %) and TD+ (62%; 95% CI: 49-75 %). In healthy multiparous cows, the 120 DIM pregnancy risk was 53% (95% CI: 49-56 %), which was reduced for TD-single (36%; 95% CI: 31-42 %) and TD+ (30%; 95% CI: 24-38 %). The 210 DIM pregnancy risk for healthy multiparous cows was 70% (95% CI: 67-72 %), being higher than the 210 DIM pregnancy risk for multiparous cows with TD-single (47%; 95% CI: 42-53 %) or TD+ (46%; 95% CI: 38-54 %). Cows with TD-all presented similar pregnancy risk estimates as for TD+. Cox proportional hazards regressions provided similar magnitudes of effects as the Kaplan-Meier estimates. Survival analysis and decision tree models identified parity as the most influential variable affecting fertility. Both modeling techniques concurred that TD + had a greater effect than TD-single on the probability of pregnancy at 120 and 210 DIM. Decision trees for individual TD identified that displaced abomasum affected fertility at 120 DIM in primiparous while metritis was the most influential TD at 120 and 210 DIM for multiparous cows. The data were too sparse to assess multiple interactions in multivariable Cox proportional hazard models for individual TD. Machine learning helped to explore interactions between individual TD to study their hierarchical effect on fertility, identifying conditional relationships that merit further investigation

General and comparative aspects of endometritis in domestic species: a review.

Endometritis is a leading cause of sub- and infertility in domestic animal species. The healthy uterus is colonized by commensal bacteria, viruses, and yeast/fungi that represent the non-pathogenic microbiota. A shift in the number or type of organisms accompanied by immune dysfunction, however, may trigger uterine infection and inflammation. Metritis is associated with inflammation of all uterine layers (endometrium, myometrium, and perimetrium) whereas endometritis is a more superficial inflammation involving solely the endometrium. Endometritis generally occurs at two time points in domestic animal species, post-partum and post-mating. Post-partum endometritis may chronically persist, either as a low-grade disease that often manifests as a vaginal discharge but not a systemic illness (in some species termed clinical endometritis) or sometimes subclinical where features are only detected by endometrial sampling. Contamination of the uterus at the time of mating occurs by direct deposition of semen (ejaculated or artificially inseminated) into the uterus. Improper drainage of the ejaculatory fluid or an inadequate immune response may result in persistent mating-induced endometritis. Both post-partum and post-mating endometritis interferes with fertility by creating a suboptimal environment for embryo development and placentation and chronic endometritis may have an impact on sperm survival and fertilisation ability. In the post-partum animal, there may also be changes in milk production and maternal behaviour which can affect offspring health and survival. Preventive strategies for endometritis largely depend on monitoring their known risk factors, which are sometimes specific with regard to the species. Effective, non-antibiotic therapy for endometritis is not available to date. Overall, extensive research has been performed in cattle and horses to unravel key aspects of endometritis, but in sows and bitches, the available literature is scant. Thus, the need and opportunity to investigate the condition vary considerably among domestic species and necessitate their comparative assessment. This article reviews general and comparative aspects of the diagnosis and classification, pathogenesis, preventive strategies, and therapeutics of endometritis in domestic species with a specific focus on cows, mares, sows, and bitches

Assessment of associations between transition diseases and reproductive performance of dairy cows using survival analysis and decision tree algorithms

This study aimed to evaluate the associations between transition cow conditions and diseases TD with fertility in Holstein cows, and to compare analytic methods for doing so. Kaplan-Meier, Cox proportional hazard, and decision tree models were used to analyze the associations of TD with the pregnancy risk at 120 and 210 DIM from a 1-year cohort with 1946 calvings from one farm. The association between TD and fertility was evaluated as follows: 1 cows with TD whether complicated with another TD or not TD-all, versus healthy cows, and 2 cows with uncomplicated TD TD-single, versus cows with multiple TD TD+; complicated cases, versus healthy cows. The occurrence of twins, milk fever, retained placenta, metritis, ketosis, displaced abomasum, and clinical mastitis were recorded. Using Kaplan-Meier models, in primiparous cows the 120 DIM pregnancy risk was 62% (95% CI: 57–67 %) for healthy animals. This was not significantly different for TD-single (58%; 95% CI: 51–66 %) but was reduced for TD+ (45%; 95% CI: 33–60 %). Among healthy primiparous cows, 80% (95% CI: 75–84 %) were pregnant by 210 DIM, but pregnancy risk at that time was reduced for primiparous cows with TD-single (72%; 95% CI: 65–79 %) and TD+ (62%; 95% CI: 49–75 %). In healthy multiparous cows, the 120 DIM pregnancy risk was 53% (95% CI: 49–56 %), which was reduced for TD-single (36%; 95% CI: 31–42 %) and TD+ (30%; 95% CI: 24–38 %). The 210 DIM pregnancy risk for healthy multiparous cows was 70% (95% CI: 67–72 %), being higher than the 210 DIM pregnancy risk for multiparous cows with TD-single (47%; 95% CI: 42–53 %) or TD+ (46%; 95% CI: 38–54 %). Cows with TD-all presented similar pregnancy risk estimates as for TD + . Cox proportional hazards regressions provided similar magnitudes of effects as the Kaplan-Meier estimates. Survival analysis and decision tree models identified parity as the most influential variable affecting fertility. Both modeling techniques concurred that TD + had a greater effect than TD-single on the probability of pregnancy at 120 and 210 DIM. Decision trees for individual TD identified that displaced abomasum affected fertility at 120 DIM in primiparous while metritis was the most influential TD at 120 and 210 DIM for multiparous cows. The data were too sparse to assess multiple interactions in multivariable Cox proportional hazard models for individual TD. Machine learning helped to explore interactions between individual TD to study their hierarchical effect on fertility, identifying conditional relationships that merit further investigation