Nederlandse oren en ogen in Mali

Security and Global Affair

Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb: Terrorism, insurgency, or organized crime?

After incurring significant losses during France’s 2013 Operation Serval in Mali, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is back. Mokhtar Belmokhtar has rejoined the group, violent attacks are on the increase, and southern Libya offers elements of the group a new safe-haven. This article takes a long view on AQIM, looking at its objectives and ideology, organizational structure, relationship with the local population and revenue model to determine whether they should be labelled as terrorists, insurgents, or ordinary criminals. The article concludes that AQIM generally follows a strategy of terrorism, while some elements and modus operandi could also be indicative of a strategy of insurgency. AQIM’s primary commanders have a long-standing relationship with the global Al Qaeda movement, are unlikely to be seduced by the Islamic State, and enjoy significant autonomy in conducting their operations. There is, however, little evidence that supports the view that AQIM is a criminal organization behind a religious façade, and its Salafi–jihadist ideology remains a leading determinant.Security and Global Affair

Understanding Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb: responses to terrorist tactics and insurgent strategies

This PhD investigates the development of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, with a particular focus on the distinction between terrorism and insurgency. The findings have been published in five peer-reviewed articles, and are joined by an introductory framework and a concluding chapter. The scene-setter contextualizes the problem of terrorism in Mali, describes the fragmented landscape of jihadist groups, analyzes how Tuareg separatism led to AQIM's control of northern Mali, and illustrates how shortcomings in national and local governance fueled insecurity. The second conceptual article analyzed whether AQIM should be regarded as terrorism, insurgency or organized crime, and concluded that - at the time of writing (2016) - most indicators pointed to the group following a strategy of terrorism. A treatise on methodology investigated the discrepancy between the international community's perception of Mali pre-2012 as a stable 'posterboy for democracy', while it was Mali that suffered a near-complete collapse in 2012. It concluded that a quantitative risk approach, rather than a qualitative threat approach, contributed to this misperception. The fourth article applied the first trinity from Clausewitz’s opus On War to Operation Serval, the French military operation to oust AQIM from northern Mali in 2013. Clear political goals, contingency planning, an audacious military operation combined with luck all helped France secure an initial victory against AQIM. The final article focused on potential pathways for AQIM to end, and concluded that in 2021 AQIM followed a strategy of insurgency, while much of the international response remained rooted in the paradigm of counterterrorism. Security and Global Affair

First Responder or Last Resort? The role of the Ministry of Defence in national cyber crisis management in four European countries

Cybersecurity en cybergovernanc

Psychologische aspecten van het ondergaan van een operatie

In toenemende mate wordt het belang van psychologische factoren in de geneeskunde en de gezondheidszorg onderkend. Het mag geen verwondering wekken dat deze factoren ook een rol spelen op het terrein van de heelkunde. Het samenwerkingsverband tussen de afdeling Medische Psychologie van de Medische Faculteit van de Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam en de afdeling Heelkunde van het Academisch Ziekenhuis Leiden resulteerde in 1980 in het proefschrift van Banke. Deze studie betrof een onderzoek naar geluiden tijdens de narcose en hun invloed op het postoperatieve beloop. Banke concludeerde op grond van zijn onderzoeksresultaten dat patienten tijdens hun algehele narcose geluiden kunnen registreren. Omdat met name dit soort onderzoek beinvloed kan worden door vele moeilijk te controleren factoren, werd besloten tot replicatie. In dit kader zou ik 120 galblaasoperatiepatienten ondermeer voor en na hun electieve operatie onderzoeken. Van deze gelegenheid is gebruik gemaakt om tegelijkertijd een ander onderzoek te verrichten. Dat onderzoek was gericht op de rol die angst speelt bij operatiepatienten. Dit psychologisch fenomeen werd enerzijds onderzocht omdat er nog te weinig eenduidige kennis omtrent de invloed van angst op operatiepatienten bestaat. Anderzijds bestond op de afdeling Medische Psychologie de wens om meer onderzoek te doen naar angst in de medische situatie. De bovengenoemde overwegingen leidden ertoe dat de probleemstelling in dit proefschrift tweeledig is. Ten eerste is er de vraag: kunnen patienten tijdens hun algehele anesthesie geluidspr

The Demilitarisation of Cyber Conflict

The debate about state behaviour in cyberspace may be set in the wrong legal key.Security and Global AffairsCybersecurity en cybergovernanc

The Unforeseen 2012 Crisis in Mali: The Diverging Outcomes of Risk and Threat Analyses

The 2012 crisis in Mali, where the state collapsed and terrorist groups took over the north, came as a surprise to many. Mali had been considered a poster-child for democracy and was judged as considerably more stable than its neighbors by leading quantitative indices of state fragility. This article explores how quantitative risk and qualitative threat approaches led to incomplete analyses, and how bureaucratic processes stifled a holistic diagnosis of the situation in Mali. French and Dutch government views are analyzed, adding new empirical information on how ministries and embassies were unwilling to call out disconcerting developments in Mali.Security and Global Affair

Foreign intelligence in the digital age. Navigating a state of ‘unpeace’.

Security and Global AffairsCybersecurity en cybergovernanc

Transitioning from military interventions to long-term counter-terrorism policy: The case of Libya (2011-2016)

The paper on Libya aims to analyse the military intervention in Libya, five years since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi. In the context of this research project, Libya forms an interesting case study as it offers the possibility to evaluate a so-called ‘light footprint’ military intervention which is different from the approaches adopted both in Afghanistan and Mali. As we know now, the development of the country post-Gaddafi has defied expectations and has plunged the country into chaos and instability, allowing the so called ‘Islamic State’ to establish and strengthen its local foothold. The paper looks at the history and tribal composition of the country after which it delves into the decision-making process in some of the countries involved in NATO’s Operation Unified Protector under UNSCR 1973 (2011) and continues by assessing the transition phase and the complexities which have arisen following the fall of dictator Gaddafi. Finally, the paper assesses the outcome of the operation both inside and outside Libya and draws lessons and policy recommendations for future military interventions.Security and Global Affair