Modeling Sample Selection for Durations with Time-Varying Covariates, With an Application to the Duration of Exchange Rate Regimes

We extend existing estimators for duration data that suffer from non-random sample selection to allow for time-varying covariates. Rather than a continuous-time duration model, we propose a discrete-time alternative that models the effects of sample selection at the time of selection across all subsequent years of the resulting spell. Properties of the estimator are compared to those of a naive discrete duration model through Monte Carlo analysis and indicate that our estimator outperforms the naive model when selection is non-trivial. We then apply this estimator to the question of the duration of monetary regimes and find evidence that ignoring selection into pegs leads to faulty inferences.exchange rates; de facto regimes; duration; selection models; monetary policy

Grabbing the Air Force by the Tail: Applying Strategic Cost Analytics to Understand and Manage Indirect Cost Behavior

Recent and projected reductions in defense spending are forcing the military services to develop systematic approaches to identify cost reduction opportunities and better manage financial resources. In response, the Air Force along with her sister services are developing strategic approaches to reduce front-line mission resources, commonly referred to as the Tooth . However, an underemphasized contributing source of costs are mission support activities, commonly referred to as the Tail . With the tail historically representing a sizable portion of the annual Air Force budget, strategically managing cost behavior of these indirect activities has the opportunity to generate significant cost reductions. However, very little applied or academic research have focused on advancing the knowledge behind the economics of, or the analytic techniques applied to, these activities for cost management purposes. To address this concern, this dissertation investigates i) how organizations use analytic methodologies and data sources to understand and manage cost behavior, ii) how to identify underlying cost curves of concern across tail activities, iii) how to distinguish historical relationships between the tooth and tail, iv) how to improve the performance assessment of tail activities for improved resource allocation, and v) how to provide a decision support tool for tooth-to-tail policy impact analysis

Visitation Evangelism in American Churches

Thirty-five years ago the term visitation evangelism” had, in all probability, never been spoken. Today it is in common usage in nearly every major Protestant church body in America. The method of visitation evangelism is widely employed throughout the country. Some enthusiastic advocates anticipate its use in every city, village, and hamlet. With voice seldom raised and with methods far from spectacular, visitation evangelism has been instrumental in gathering large numbers of members into Protestant churches. It is estimated that in the past five years three million men and women have been trained in visitation evangelism. In large measure this work accounts for the rapid growth of the churches in America in recent years

A Survey and Evaluation of Religious Broadcasting

This paper will attempt: I. To separate the historical thread of religious broadcasting out of the history of broadcasting in general. II. To evaluate religious broadcasting as an aid to the Church. III. To indicate trends which religious broadcasting may follow in the future

Visitation Evangelism in American Churches

The story of the development of Visitation Evangelism is here viewed in general chronological sequence, with principal emphasis on the individuals associated with the movement, their experiences and thoughts (as they may be apprehended), and their expressed attempts at contribution to the evangelism field

Visitation Evangelism in American Churches (Concluded)

In keeping with the proposition that it is impossible for any one evangelism method to apply perfectly to any and all circumstances, consideration is now given to points of strength and weakness in the basic visitation procedure. What was this evangelism technique capable of contributing to the work of the church and the ongoing program of the kingdom of Christ? What may have been expected of the plan but should not have been required

Whose Ear (or Arm) to Bend? Information Sources and Venue Choice in Policy Making

Important conceptualizations of both interest groups and bureaucratic agencies suggest that these institutions provide legislatures with greater information for use in policy making. Yet little is known about how these information sources interact in the policy process as a whole. In this paper we consider this issue analytically, and develop a model of policy making in which multiple sources of information – from the bureaucracy, an interest group, or a legislature’s own in-house development – can be brought to bear on policy. Lobbyists begin this process by selecting a venue – Congress or a standing bureaucracy – in which to press for a policy change. The main findings of the paper are that self-selection of lobbyists into different policy making venues can be informative per se; that this self-selection can make legislatures willing to delegate more authority to ideologically distinct bureaucratic agents; and that delegation of authority, while it takes advantage of agency expertise, can nevertheless lead to an increase in the legislature’s own in-house information gathering (e.g., hearings). Changes within the Federal Trade Commission during the 1970s are reinterpreted in the context of our model.Delegation, Lobbying, Bureaucracy, Venue Choice, Discretion