On the financial sustainability of earnings-related pension schemes with"pay-as-you-go"financing and the role of government indexed bonds

In this paper the authors reconsider the idea of an earnings-related pension system with reserves invested in indexed government bonds as a mechanism to both ensure financial sustainability and improve security. They start by reviewing the characterization of the sustainable rate of return of an earnings-related pension system with pay-as-you-go financing. The authors show that current proxies for the sustainable rate, including the Swedish"gyroscope,"are not stable and propose an alternative measure that depends on the growth of the buffer-stock and the pay-as-you-go asset. Using a simple one-sector macroeconomic model that embeds a notional account pension system they then show how GDP indexed government bonds, if combined with the right measure for the sustainable rate of return on contributions, could be used to generate a sustainable and secure earnings-related pension system, without becoming a fiscal burden. The proposal is particularly attractive for countries considering reforms to earnings-related systems that have accumulated a large implicit pension debt. In this case, the government bonds allow the financing of this debt in a transparent way. The proposed mechanism can also facilitate the transition to a fully-funded pension system when the government bonds are allowed to be traded.Economic Theory&Research,Technology Industry,Pensions&Retirement Systems,Economic Growth,Population Policies

Savings for unemployment in good or bad times : options for developing countries

The paper describes and evaluates unemployment insurance savings accounts (UISAs) a relatively new and not well-known way of providing unemployment benefits. The UISAs reduce work disincentives by allowing recipients to keep their own unused unemployment contributions, and offer the possibility to extend coverage to informal sector workers. In addition, if integrated with mandatory pension systems (and even social pensions), UISAs can be rapidly deployed and at a low cost, thus becoming a realistic tool to protect workers from the effects of the financial crisis. Even during normal times, the integration with the pension system and social security in general will give more flexibility to individuals in the management of short and long term savings (i.e., pension wealth) while avoiding unnecessary administrative costs. The paper discusses issues related to incentives, redistribution, and viability, and outlines a policy framework for design and implementation. It argues that the UISAs system is especially attractive for developing countries, where the'self-policing'nature of the system is particularly important given a much larger informal sector and weaker administrative capacity in comparison to developed countries.,Labor Markets,Labor Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Access to Finance

How Mandatory Pensions Affect Labor Supply Decisions and Human Capital Accumulation? Options to Bridge the Gap between Economic Theory and Policy Analysis

Mandatory pension systems can have a negative impact on individual savings and labor supply decisions. In particular, defined benefit pension schemes that are not actuarially fair, can create incentives for early retirement, and therefore, reduce labor supply and the stock of human capital. After a review of frequently applied approaches to assess the incentives generated by a pension system, the paper develops an indicator to predict the age-specific retirement probabilities induced by a particular pension system given heterogeneous individual preferences. The paper then describes how this indicator could be used to project the size of the labor force by gender, age and skill level, and correspondingly, the dynamics of human capital accumulation. Finally, the paper develops a set of life-cycle income measures to assess how the pension system affects decisions regarding the supply of labor in the public and private sectors. The methods are illustrated in the case of Morocco.life cycle models, labor supply, human capital, retirement policies, job and occupational mobility

Assessing the distortions of mandatory pensions on labor supply decisions and human capital accumulation : how to bridge the gap between economic theory and policy analysis

Mandatory pension systems play a major role in individual savings and labor supply decisions. In particular, it is well known that defined benefit pension schemes, which are not actuarially fair, can create incentives for early retirement and therefore reduce labor supply and the stock of human capital in a given country. This is an important policy issue in middle-income countries, with still low participation rates in the labor force, where the"window"opened by the demographic transition is already closed or will close in the near future. In these countries, policies to stimulate private sector growth, competitiveness, and employment creation should be accompanied by policies that increase labor force participation, raising the ratio of active to inactive population and therefore the potential for higher income per capita growth. Unfortunately, the analytical tools developed to assess pension reform options tend to focus on the financial sustainability of the schemes and the adequacy of benefits. Little attention is given in practice to the social costs imposed by distortions on the supply of labor. In part, this is given by the lack of analytical tools that, in the context of limited information regarding individual preferences and behavior, can be used to assess the magnitude of these distortions. This paper develops methodologies that can bridge the gap between economic theory and the practices of pension policy personnel under conditions of deep uncertainty regarding the variables driving individual behavioral responses to policy changes. First, the paper develops an indicator to predict the age-specific retirement probabilities induced by a particular pension system, given heterogeneous individual preferences over risk, consumption, and leisure. The paper then describes how this indicator can be used to project the size of the labor force by gender, age and skill level and therefore the dynamics of human capital accumulation. The integration of these two analytical tools allow us to show the impact of a particularpension reform proposals on the dynamics of labor supply, human capital and, given the dynamics of capital and total factor productivity, economic growth. Furthermore, the paper develops a set of life-cycle income measures for typical individual paths that allow us to measure the contribution of segmented pension schemes to the segmentation of the labor market. The methods are applied to the case of Morocco.,Labor Markets,Labor Policies,Pensions&Retirement Systems,Debt Markets

How Mandatory Pensions Affect Labor Supply Decisions and Human Capital Accumulation? Options to Bridge the Gap between Economic Theory and Policy Analysis

Mandatory pension systems can have a negative impact on individual savings and labor supply decisions. In particular, defined benefit pension schemes that are not actuarially fair, can create incentives for early retirement, and therefore, reduce labor supply and the stock of human capital. After a review of frequently applied approaches to assess the incentives generated by a pension system, the paper develops an indicator to predict the age-specific retirement probabilities induced by a particular pension system given heterogeneous individual preferences. The paper then describes how this indicator could be used to project the size of the labor force by gender, age and skill level, and correspondingly, the dynamics of human capital accumulation. Finally, the paper develops a set of life-cycle income measures to assess how the pension system affects decisions regarding the supply of labor in the public and private sectors. The methods are illustrated in the case of Morocco

How Mandatory Pensions Affect Labor Supply Decisions and Human Capital Accumulation? Options to Bridge the Gap between Economic Theory and Policy Analysis

Mandatory pension systems can have a negative impact on individual savings and labor supply decisions. In particular, defined benefit pension schemes that are not actuarially fair, can create incentives for early retirement, and therefore, reduce labor supply and the stock of human capital. After a review of frequently applied approaches to assess the incentives generated by a pension system, the paper develops an indicator to predict the age-specific retirement probabilities induced by a particular pension system given heterogeneous individual preferences. The paper then describes how this indicator could be used to project the size of the labor force by gender, age and skill level, and correspondingly, the dynamics of human capital accumulation. Finally, the paper develops a set of life-cycle income measures to assess how the pension system affects decisions regarding the supply of labor in the public and private sectors. The methods are illustrated in the case of Morocco