Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric in Australia?

This paper examines whether monetary policy shocks have asymmetric effects on output in Australia. Using methods similar to Cover (1992) together with some other simple threshold models, evidence is found of certain types of asymmetries when comparing monetary contractions to monetary policy expansions. Unanticipated decreases in interest rates appear to significantly raise GDP growth rates, whilst unexpected increases in rates do not appear to significantly lower growth. These findings are also found in a brief examination of the investment and consumption channels within the monetary policy transmission process. Economic growth is also significantly higher in a low interest rate regime (when interest rates are below a certain threshold, such as the sample average or average over some longer time period) than in a high interest rate environment. These results appear to refute the idea that monetary policy is like `pushing on a string', at least for Australian data over the period 1973:1-2005:1.

Output Volatility in Australia

A number of papers have documented a significant decline in real GDP volatility in several major OECD economies. Some authors have presented evidence to suggest that this is the outcome of a one-off structural break from a high to low volatility state whilst others have estimated regime switching models that indicate low volatility regime states have dominated in recent years. This paper provides a different perspective on volatility decline. Evidence is provided of a smoother, longer term decline that would appear to be the result of many more general changes in the economy over time, rather than particular events, such as abrupt changes in inventory management methods, the floating of exchange rates or changes to the conduct of monetary policy. The paper also provides estimates of various GARCH models of real GDP growth to further examine shorter term volatility features of the economy associated with the business cycle. A linear trend term is maintained in all models of the conditional variance to account for the general long-term decline in volatility and evidence is provided of significant business cycle effects, including asymmetries that suggest recessions are times of higher output volatility than economic expansions.

Remittances or technological diffusion: Which is more important for generating economic growth in developing countries?

This study examines the impact that technological diffusion and international migrants� remittances have on the economic development of developing countries. The hypothesis that skilled workers, living and working overseas, can effectively channel technological knowledge back to their home country, contributing to that country�s economic growth, is tested utilising data on the stock of high skilled workers from 50 developing countries working in industrialised countries over the last two decades. Results obtained lend strong support to this hypothesis. In addition, the effect that remittances from workers in developed countries, which are used for investment purposes in developing countries, have on the rate of growth of those developing economies is also investigated. Empirical evidence indicates that the remittances channel exerts a significant, positive impact on growth. More interestingly, the contribution of such investment-oriented remittances to driving sustainable economic development appears to be of relatively greater importance that of technological diffusion.

International research and development spillovers through foreign direct investment and productivity growth.

This study further examines the role of research and development (R&D), both domestic and foreign, in the development of national productivity. A key focus is on the role played by foreign direct investment (FDI) in facilitating technological transfer. The research empirically investigates the significance of FDI as an effective channel of R&D spillovers within a group of 15 OECD countries. It also examines whether the technology transfer through FDI is bi-directional: from an investing country to a host country and vice versa. In addition, the impact of human capital accumulation on a country�s capacity to learn from a foreign technology base is also examined empirically. The paper considers the possible effects of FDI on human capital accumulation process, in particular, whether FDI helps channel more resources towards the promotion of education activities. Empirical results obtained all lend strong supports to these hypotheses.

The Role of Financial Development in Natural Resource Abundant Economies: Does the Nature of the Resource Matter?

The paper evaluates the role played by financial development in oil vis-�-vis non-oil (mining) economies using a panel data set for the period 1984-2003. A novel two-step, variance corrected system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator proposed by Windmeijer (2005) is applied to a dynamic panel of 44 developing economies. The data reveals that financial development plays a crucial role in influencing the efficiency of investment, thus economic performance of these economies. However, the potency of financial institutions is highly dependent on whether the economy is an oil or non-oil (mining) producer.

Stability Boundaries for Resonant Migrating Planet Pairs

Convergent migration allows pairs of planet to become trapped into mean motion resonances. Once in resonance, the planets' eccentricities grow to an equilibrium value that depends on the ratio of migration time scale to the eccentricity damping timescale, $K=\tau_a/\tau_e$, with higher values of equilibrium eccentricity for lower values of $K$. For low equilibrium eccentricities, $e_{eq}\propto K^{-1/2}$. The stability of a planet pair depends on eccentricity so the system can become unstable before it reaches its equilibrium eccentricity. Using a resonant overlap criterion that takes into account the role of first and second order resonances and depends on eccentricity, we find a function $K_{min}(\mu_p, j)$ that defines the lowest value for $K$, as a function of the ratio of total planet mass to stellar mass ($\mu_p$) and the period ratio of the resonance defined as $P_1/P_2=j/(j+k)$, that allows two convergently migrating planets to remain stable in resonance at their equilibrium eccentricities. We scaled the functions $K_{min}$ for each resonance of the same order into a single function $K_c$. The function $K_{c}$ for planet pairs in first order resonances is linear with increasing planet mass and quadratic for pairs in second order resonances with a coefficient depending on the relative migration rate and strongly on the planet to planet mass ratio. The linear relation continues until the mass approaches a critical mass defined by the 2/7 resonance overlap instability law and $K_c \to \infty$. We compared our analytic boundary with an observed sample of resonant two planet systems. All but one of the first order resonant planet pair systems found by radial velocity measurements are well inside the stability region estimated by this model. We calculated $K_c$ for Kepler systems without well-constrained eccentricities and found only weak constraints on $K$.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figure

Fiscal Decentralisation and Economic Growth: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

This article re-examines the relationship between fiscal decentralisation and economic growth by employing Bayesian model averaging (BMA). BMA enables the consideration of a range of measures of fiscal decentralisation and allows the incorporation of model uncertainty into the empirical methodology. Posterior coefficient estimates suggest that not straightforward relationship exists between fiscal decentralisation and economic growth based on time-series data for Australia.

Tionde läseåret och naturens inverkan på ungdomars välbefinnande

En kvantitativ undersökning med en före-efter-design utfördes med 39 ungdomar, 17 pojkar, 22 flickor, i åldern 15-17 år, vid linjen Base Camp vid Kronoby folkhögskola som målgrupp. Linjen Base Camp är ett s.k. tionde läsår med betoning på friluftsliv samt satsning på individen och de färdigheter han eller hon är bra på eller vill utveckla. Undersökningen försöker ge en bild av hur tionde läsåret och naturen upplevs och inverkar på ungdomars välbefinnande, genom The Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale och Antonovskys KASAM-frågeformulär, samt en intervju. Av resultatet framgick att ungdomars välbefinnande tenderade att vara högre efter året på Base Camp. Värdena för känsla av sammanhang med dess underkategorier meningsfullhet, begriplighet och hanterbarhet var vid tidpunkten efter Base Camp goda. Året på Base Camp hade gett ungdomarna upplevelser och kunskap samt framtidsplaner, och de upplevde att de blivit sedda som individer