Second-generation p-values: improved rigor, reproducibility, & transparency in statistical analyses

Verifying that a statistically significant result is scientifically meaningful is not only good scientific practice, it is a natural way to control the Type I error rate. Here we introduce a novel extension of the p-value - a second-generation p-value - that formally accounts for scientific relevance and leverages this natural Type I Error control. The approach relies on a pre-specified interval null hypothesis that represents the collection of effect sizes that are scientifically uninteresting or are practically null. The second-generation p-value is the proportion of data-supported hypotheses that are also null hypotheses. As such, second-generation p-values indicate when the data are compatible with null hypotheses, or with alternative hypotheses, or when the data are inconclusive. Moreover, second-generation p-values provide a proper scientific adjustment for multiple comparisons and reduce false discovery rates. This is an advance for environments rich in data, where traditional p-value adjustments are needlessly punitive. Second-generation p-values promote transparency, rigor and reproducibility of scientific results by a priori specifying which candidate hypotheses are practically meaningful and by providing a more reliable statistical summary of when the data are compatible with alternative or null hypotheses.Comment: 29 pages, 29 page Supplemen

Women at risk for sexually transmitted diseases: correlates of intercourse without barrier contraception

Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the correlates of vaginal intercourse without barrier contraception (unprotected intercourse). Study Design: Baseline data from a randomized trial were analyzed to evaluate factors that are associated with intercourse without barrier method use among women \u3c35 years old. Logistic regression models provided estimates of the association of demographic, reproductive, and sexual history variables with unprotected intercourse. Results: Intercourse without barrier contraception was common; 65% of participants had ≥2 episodes of intercourse without barrier contraception use in the past month. Factors that were associated with increased odds of unprotected intercourse included the number of coital episodes, a male partner’s unwillingness to use condoms (adjusted odds ratio, 4.1; 95% CI, 2.3-6.9), and, among women \u3c20 years old, low condom use self-efficacy score (adjusted odds ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.0-2.9). Conclusion: Risk factors for unprotected intercourse included coital frequency and the male partner’s unwillingness to use condoms. Self-efficacy for condom use was especially important for women \u3c20 years old

Tailored intervention to increase dual-contraceptive method use: a randomized trial to reduce unintended pregnancies and sexually transmitted infections

Objective: The objective of the study was to determine whether a transtheoretical model–tailored expert system intervention increases dual-method contraceptive use, compared with a nontailored educational intervention. Study Design: We performed a randomized clinical trial of 542 women at high risk for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and unintended pregnancy. The intervention group received computer-based tailored feedback using a multimedia program. The control group received general contraceptive information and nontailored advice. Results: Participants in the intervention group were more likely to report use of dual contraceptive methods during follow-up (adjusted hazard rate ratio 1.70, 95% confidence interval 1.09, 2.66), compared with controls. However, there were no differences in the rates of incident STI or unintended pregnancy between the 2 groups. Conclusions: The computer-based transtheoretical model–tailored intervention resulted in a 70% increase in reported dual-method contraceptive use in a group of women at high risk for STIs and unintended pregnancy. Inconsistent use of dual methods may explain the lack of effect on unintended pregnancy rates and incident STIs

Is a previous unplanned pregnancy a risk factor for a subsequent unplanned pregnancy?

Objective: The objective of the study was to determine whether a history of unplanned pregnancy was a risk factor for a subsequent unplanned pregnancy. Study Design: We analyzed 542 women aged 14-35 years, enrolled in Project PROTECT, a randomized clinical trial to promote dual-method contraception use to prevent sexually transmitted diseases and unplanned pregnancy. Predictors of unplanned pregnancy were assessed by comparing women with and without a history of unplanned pregnancy. Results: More than 1 in 5 women (22.5%) experienced an unintended pregnancy. History of an unintended pregnancy was a predictor of unintended pregnancy (adjusted odds ratio, 1.91; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-3.34). Other factors that were significantly associated with unplanned pregnancy included young age and low educational status. Conclusions: Future efforts should focus on bridging the gap between identifying risk factors for unplanned pregnancy and interventions aimed at reducing the incidence in high-risk groups

System size and centrality dependence of the balance function in A + A collisions at sqrt s NN = 17.2 GeV

Electric charge correlations were studied for p+p, C+C, Si+Si and centrality selected Pb+Pb collisions at sqrt s_NN = 17.2$ GeV with the NA49 large acceptance detector at the CERN-SPS. In particular, long range pseudo-rapidity correlations of oppositely charged particles were measured using the Balance Function method. The width of the Balance Function decreases with increasing system size and centrality of the reactions. This decrease could be related to an increasing delay of hadronization in central Pb+Pb collisions

System size and centrality dependence of the balance function in A+A collisions at sqrt[sNN]=17.2 GeV

Electric charge correlations were studied for p+p, C+C, Si+Si, and centrality selected Pb+Pb collisions at sqrt[sNN]=17.2 GeV with the NA49 large acceptance detector at the CERN SPS. In particular, long-range pseudorapidity correlations of oppositely charged particles were measured using the balance function method. The width of the balance function decreases with increasing system size and centrality of the reactions. This decrease could be related to an increasing delay of hadronization in central Pb+Pb collisions

Economic Analysis of Knowledge: The History of Thought and the Central Themes

Following the development of knowledge economies, there has been a rapid expansion of economic analysis of knowledge, both in the context of technological knowledge in particular and the decision theory in general. This paper surveys this literature by identifying the main themes and contributions and outlines the future prospects of the discipline. The wide scope of knowledge related questions in terms of applicability and alternative approaches has led to the fragmentation of research. Nevertheless, one can identify a continuing tradition which analyses various aspects of the generation, dissemination and use of knowledge in the economy