The Corrected Log N-Log Fluence Distribution of Cosmological Gamma-Ray Bursts

Recent analysis of relativistically expanding shells of cosmological gamma-ray bursts has shown that if the bursts are cosmological, then most likely total energy (E_0) is standard and not peak luminosity (L_0). Assuming a flat Friedmann cosmology (q_o = 1/2, Lambda = 0) and constant rate density (rho_0) of bursting sources, we fit a standard candle energy to a uniformly selected log N-log S in the BATSE 3B catalog correcting for fluence efficiency and averaging over 48 observed spectral shapes. We find the data consistent with E_0 = 7.3^{+0.7}_{-1.0} X 10^{51} ergs and discuss implications of this energy for cosmological models of gamma-ray bursts.Comment: A five page LateX file that uses the Revtex conference proceedings macro aipbook.sty, and includes three postscript figures using psfig. To Be published in the Proceedings of the Third Hunstville Symposium on Gamma-Ray Bursts, eds. C. Kouveliotou, M.S. Briggs and G.J. Fishman (New York:AIP). Postscript version availible at http://nis-www.lanl.gov/~jsbloom/LOG_S.p

Astrometric Microlensing Constraints on a Massive Body in the Outer Solar System with Gaia

A body in Solar orbit beyond the Kuiper belt exhibits an annual parallax that exceeds its apparent proper motion by up to many orders of magnitude. Apparent motion of this body along the parallactic ellipse will deflect the angular position of background stars due to astrometric microlensing ("induced parallax"). By synoptically sampling the astrometric position of background stars over the entire sky, constraints on the existence (and basic properties) of a massive nearby body may be inferred. With a simple simulation, we estimate the signal-to-noise for detecting such a body -- as function of mass, heliocentric distance, and ecliptic latitude -- using the anticipated sensitivity and temporal cadences from Gaia (launch 2011). A Jupiter-mass (M_Jup) object at 2000 AU is detectable by Gaia over the whole sky above 5-sigma, with even stronger constraints if it lies near the ecliptic plane. Hypotheses for the mass (~3M_Jup), distance (~20,000 AU) and location of the proposed perturber ("Planet X") which gives rise to long-period comets may be testable.Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures. Figures revised, new figure added, minor text revisions. Accepted to ApJ, to appear in the Dec 10, 2005 issue (v635

Expected characteristics of the subclass of Supernova Gamma-ray Bursts (S-GRBs)

The spatial and temporal coincidence between the gamma-ray burst (GRB) 980425 and supernova (SN) 1998bw has prompted speculation that there exists a class of GRBs produced by SNe (``S-GRBs''). Robust arguments for the existence of a relativistic shock have been presented on the basis of radio observations. A physical model based on the radio observations lead us to propose the following characteristics of supernovae GRBs (S-GRBs): 1) prompt radio emission and implied brightness temperature near or below the inverse Compton limit, 2) high expansion velocity of the optical photosphere as derived from lines widths and energy release larger than usual, 3) no long-lived X-ray afterglow, and 4) a single pulse (SP) GRB profile. Radio studies of previous SNe show that only type Ib and Ic potentially satisfy the first condition. Accordingly we have investigated proposed associations of GRBs and SNe finding no convincing evidence (mainly to paucity of data) to confirm any single connection of a SN with a GRB. If there is a more constraining physical basis for the burst time-history of S-GRBs beyond that of the SP requirement, we suggest the 1% of light curves in the BATSE catalogue similar to that of GRB 980425 may constitute the subclass. Future optical follow-up of bursts with similar profiles should confirm if such GRBs originate from some fraction of SN type Ib/Ic.Comment: 11 pages of LaTeX with 1 figure. Submitted to the Astrophysical Journal Letter

The AIDS Epidemic and Economic Policy Analysis

Economists have a vital role to play in helping public health officials and policymakers understand the AIDS epidemic and design efficient policies to limit its impact. AIDS is first and foremost a public health problem, but it is a problem with deep economic roots and potentially devastating economic consequences. The main purpose of this article is to document this assertion

Does the AIDS Epidemic Really Threaten Economic Growth?

This study examines the claim that the AIDS epidemic will slow the pace of economic growth. We do this by examining the association, across fifty-one developing and industrial countries for which we were able to assemble data, between changes in the prevalence of AIDS and the rate of growth of GDP per capita. Our analysis uses well-established empirical growth models to control for a variety of factors possibly correlated with AIDS prevalence that migt also influence growth. We also account for possible simultaneity in the relationship between AIDS and economic growth. Our main finding is that the AIDS epidemic has had an insignificant effect on the growth rate of per capita income, with no evidence of reverse causality. We also find evidence that the insignificant effect of AIDS on income per capita is qualitatively similar to an insignificantly effect on wages of the Black Death in England and France during the Middle Ages and an insignificant effect on output per capita of influenza in India during 1918-19

Globalization, global public bads, rising criminal activity and growth

By globalization we mean an external shock; specifically an increased world demand for various goods (or bads) including the products and services which are illegal. We analyse the effects of these shocks on growth and capital stocks by utilizing two different models. The first examines an exogenous shock in the context of a single country macroeconomic Ramsey growth model. The shadow activity generally has a negative impact on productivity and the capital stock. But its effect on consumption is much more ambiguous, depending on whether it generates positive or negative revenues in the domestic economy. The other model considers a two-region North-South model, along the lines of the Findlay (1980) model, where it is the South that produces the criminal good, and the North that consumes it. Unlike in the first model, the production of the illicit commodity does not directly detract from the capital stock, as it only utilizes surplus labour from the hinterland. The effect on equilibrium capital stock, however, occurs via changes in the wage-rental ratio. This in turn will affect steady-state growth rates in the two regions. An increase in illicit sector activity that is mainly expropriated by warlords leads to an unambiguous loss to the South in terms of capital stock, terms of trade, and the real compensation of workers. Increased migration from South to the North raises the South's terms of trade, and there is more investment from North to South

The redshift determination of GRB 990506 and GRB 000418 with the Echellete Spectrograph Imager on Keck

Using the Echellete Spectrograph Imager (ESI) on the Keck II 10-m telescope we have measured the redshifts of the host galaxies of gamma-ray bursts GRB 990506 and GRB 000418, z=1.30658 +/- 0.00004 and 1.1181 +/- 0.0001, respectively. Thanks to the excellent spectral resolution of ESI we resolved the [O II] 3727 doublet in both cases. The measured redshift of GRB 990506 is the highest known for a dark burst GRB, though entirely consistent with the notion that dark and non-dark bursts have a common progenitor origin. The relative strengths of the [O II], He I, [Ne III], and H gamma emission lines suggest that the host of GRB 000418 is a starburst galaxy, rather than a LINER or Seyfert 2. Since the host of GRB 000418 has been detected at sub-millimeter wavelengths these spectroscopic observations suggest that the sub-millimeter emission is due to star-formation (as opposed to AGN) activity. The [O II]-derived unobscured star-formation rates are 13 and 55 M_solar/yr for the hosts of GRB 990506 and GRB 000418, respectively. In contrast, the star-formation rate of the host of GRB 000418 derived from sub-millimeter observations is twenty times larger.Comment: To appear in the Astronomical Journal (accepted 4 December 2002). 15 pages, 3 Postscript figure