The CEO performance effect:Statistical issues and a complex fit perspective

How CEOs affect strategy and performance is important to strategic management research. We show that sophisticated statistical analysis alone is problematic for establishing the magnitude and causes of CEO impact on performance. We discuss three problem areas that substantially distort the measurement and sources of a CEO performance effect: (1) the nature of performance time series, (2) confounding and (3) the discovery of many interactions associated with the CEO performance effect. We show that the aggregate of empirical research implies complex interdependency as the driver of the CEO performance effect. This suggests a ‘fit’ model requiring new research approaches

Adaptive aspirations:Performance consequences of risk preferences at extremes and alternative reference groups

Goals or aspirations and their relationships to risk taking and performance are important issues in both psychology and strategic management. The concept of adaptive aspirations, as discussed in Cyert and March's Behavioral Theory of the Firm, has long been a topic of interest in both fields. Moreover, many studies in strategy have focused on risk and/or extreme performance. In the current paper, we build on earlier models of adaptive aspirations. We introduce into the models a new risk preference function that incorporates changes in risk preference at extremes of performance. Based on empirical studies and the managerial literature, we also introduce alternative strategies for setting reference groups. Simulations of the resulting models suggest important differences in outcomes from earlier studies and this invites further empirical investigation. These simulations also have significant implications for managerial goal setting

Adaptive aspirations and performance heterogeneity: Attention allocation among multiple reference points

Organizations learn and adapt their aspiration levels based on reference points (prior aspiration, prior performance, and prior performance of reference groups). The relative attention that organizations allocate to these reference points impacts organizational search and strategic decisions. However, very little research has explored this. Therefore, we build a recursive feedback model of learning from organizational experience that explains heterogeneity of attention allocation to the reference points in adaptive aspirations. In a sample of the German magazine industry (1972–2010), we find when early in their life cycle and as they or their parent company age, organizations tend to focus more on their own aspirations; however, when at the verge of bankruptcy, they increase their attention to competitors' performance

The effect of organizational learning from performance feedback on team attention focus

In this chapter, we present a theory on how organizational performance feedback influences individual decision-maker cognitions and thereby changes a team’s attention focus in terms of strategy. We argue that when performance compares unfavorably to aspiration levels, decision-makers reconsider current strategies in favor of unfamiliar, uncertain ones and become more risk tolerant. Furthermore, as decision-makers devote additional cognitive resources to do so, changes in attention focus in a decision-making team will be observed. Using data from a business simulation and repeated questionnaires, we capture the teams’ attention focus and the organizational performance feedback evaluation process of the individuals and teams

Second follow-up of a German cohort on childhood cancer incidence after exposure to postnatal diagnostic x-ray.

Studies on children exposed to ionising radiation by computed tomography (CT) indicate an increased risk of leukemia and central nervous system (CNS) tumors. Evidence of the risks associated with diagnostic x-ray examinations, the most frequent examination in pediatric radiology, in which the radiation dose is up to 750 times lower compared to CT examinations, is less clear. This study presents results of the second follow-up for the risk of childhood cancer in a cohort of children (<15 years) with diagnostic x-ray exposure at a large German hospital during 1976-2003 followed for additional 10 years until 2016. With a latency period of 6 months, 92 998 children contributed 794 549 person-years. The median effective dose was 7 μSv. Hundred incident cancer cases were identified: 35 leukemia, 13 lymphomas, 12 CNS tumors, 15 blastomas, 15 sarcomas and 10 other solid tumors, consisting of six germ cells tumors, three thyroid cancers and one adrenocortical carcinoma. For all cancer cases combined the standardised incidence ratio (SIR) was 1.14 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93-1.39), for leukemia 1.15 (95% CI 0.63-1.61), for lymphomas 1.03 (95% CI 0.55-1.76), for CNS tumors 0.65 (95% CI 0.34-1.14), for blastomas 1.77 (95% CI 0.91-2.91), for sarcomas 1.28 (95% CI 0.71-2.11) and for other solid tumors 2.38 (95% CI 1.14-4.38). Dose-response analysis using Poisson regression revealed no significant trend for dose groups. Results did not differ substantially with a latency period of 2 years for all cancer entities and 5 years for solid tumors in sensitivity analyses. Overall, the null results of the first follow-up were confirmed. Although an association between radiation exposure and a risk for certain solid tumors like thyroid cancer is known, the significantly increased SIR in the group of other solid tumors must be critically interpreted in the context of the small number of cases and the very low doses of radiation exposure in this group