Predicting mortality in acutely hospitalized older patients: a retrospective cohort study

Acutely hospitalized older patients have an increased risk of mortality, but at the moment of presentation this risk is difficult to assess. Early identification of patients at high risk might increase the awareness of the physician, and enable tailored decision-making. Existing screening instruments mainly use either geriatric factors or severity of disease for prognostication. Predictive performance of these instruments is moderate, which hampers successive interventions. We conducted a retrospective cohort study among all patients aged 70 years and over who were acutely hospitalized in the Acute Medical Unit of the Leiden University Medical Center, the Netherlands in 2012. We developed a prediction model for 90-day mortality that combines vital signs and laboratory test results reflecting severity of disease with geriatric factors, represented by comorbidities and number of medications. Among 517 patients, 94 patients (18.2 %) died within 90 days after admission. Six predictors of mortality were included in a model for mortality: oxygen saturation, Charlson comorbidity index, thrombocytes, urea, C-reactive protein and non-fasting glucose. The prediction model performs satisfactorily with an 0.738 (0.667–0.798). Using this model, 53 % of the patients in the highest risk decile (N = 51) were deceased within 90 days. In conclusion, we are able to predict 90-day mortality in acutely hospitalized older patients using a model with directly available clinical data describing disease severity and geriatric factors. After further validation, such a model might be used in clinical decision making in older patients

Vital signs and impaired cognition in older emergency department patients: The APOP study

Background/Objectives Cognitive impairment is a frequent problem among older patients attending the Emergency Department (ED) and can be the result of pre-existing cognitive impairment, delirium, or neurologic disorders. Another cause can also be acute disturbance of brain perfusion and oxygenation, which may be reversed by optimal resuscitation. This study aimed to assess the relationship between vital signs, as a measure of acute hemodynamic changes, and cognitive impairment in older ED patients. Design Prospective cohort study Setting ED’s of two tertiary care and two secondary care hospitals in the Netherlands. Participants 2629 patients aged 70-years and older Measurements Vital signs were measured at the moment of ED arrival as part of routine clinical care. Cognition was measured using the Six-Item Cognitive Impairment Test (6-CIT). Results The median age of patients was 78 years (IQR 74–84). Cognitive impairment was present in 738 patients (28.1%). When comparing lowest with highest quartiles, a systolic blood pressure of 21/min) was associated with increased risk of impaired cognition (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.58–2.95) as well as oxygen saturation of <95% (OR 1.64, 95%CI 1.24–2.19). Conclusion Abnormal vital signs associated with decreased brain perfusion and oxygenation are also associated with cognitive impairment in older ED patients. This may partially be explained by the association between disease severity and delirium, but also by acute disturbance of brain perfusion and oxygenation. Future studies should establish whether normalization of vital signs will also acutely improve cognition

Optimal screening for increased risk for adverse outcomes in hospitalised older adults

Background: screening for frailty might help to prevent adverse outcomes in hospitalised older adults. Objective: to identify the most predictive and efficient screening tool for frailty. Design and setting: two consecutive observational prospective cohorts in four hospitals in the Netherlands. Subjects: patients aged ≥70 years, electively or acutely hospitalised for ≥2 days. Methods: screening instruments included in the Dutch Safety Management Programme [VeiligheidsManagementSysteem (VMS)] on four geriatric domains (ADL, falls, undernutrition and delirium) were used and the Identification of Seniors At Risk, the 6-item Cognitive Impairment Test and the Mini-Mental State Examination were assessed. Three months later, adverse outcomes including functional decline, high-healthcare demand or death were determined. Correlation and regression tree analyses were performed and predictive capacities were assessed. Results: follow-up data were available of 883 patients. All screening instruments were similarly predictive for adverse outcome ( predictive power 0.58–0.66), but the percentage of positively screened patients (13–72%), sensitivity (24–89%) and specificity (35–91%) highly differed. The strongest predictive model for frailty was scoring positive on ≥3 VMS domains if aged 70–80 years; or being aged ≥80 years and scoring positive on ≥1 VMS domains. This tool classified 34% of the patients as frail with a sensitivity of 68% and a specificity of 74%. Comparable results were found in the validation cohort. Conclusions: the VMS-tool plus age (VMS+ ) offers an efficient instrument to identify frail hospitalised older adults at risk for adverse outcome. In clinical practice, it is important to weigh costs and benefits of screening given the rather low-predictive power of screening instruments

Familial Longevity Is Not Associated with Major Differences in the Hypothalamic–Pituitary–Gonadal Axis in Healthy Middle-Aged Men

Context: A trade-off between fertility and longevity possibly exists. The association of the male hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis with familial longevity has not yet been investigated.Objective: To study 24h hormone concentration profiles of the HPG axis in men enriched for familial longevity and controls. Design: We frequently sampled blood over 24 hours in 10 healthy middle-aged male offspring of nonagenarian participants from the Leiden Longevity Study together with 10 male age-matched controls. Individual 24h luteinizing hormone (LH) and testosterone concentration profiles were analysed by deconvolution analyses to estimate secretion parameters. Furthermore, the temporal relationship between LH and testosterone was assessed by cross-correlation analysis. We used (cross-) approximate entropy to quantify the strength of feedback and/or feedforward control of LH and testosterone secretion.Results: Mean (95% confidence interval (CI)) total LH secretion of the offspring was 212 (156–268) U/L/24h, which did not differ significantly (p=0.51) from the total LH secretion of controls (186 (130–242) U/L/24h). Likewise, mean (95% CI) total testosterone secretion of the offspring (806 (671–941) nmol/L/24h) and controls (811 (676–947) nmol/L/24h) were similar (p=0.95). Other parameters of LH and testosterone secretion were also not significantly different between offspring and controls. The temporal relationship between LH and testosterone and the strength of feedforward/feedback regulation within the HPG axis were similar between offspring of long-lived families and controls. Conclusions: This relatively small study suggests that in healthy male middle-aged participants, familial longevity is not associated with major differences in the HPG axis. Selection on both fertility and health may in part explain for the results

Late-onset dementia: Structural brain damage and total cerebral blood flow

PURPOSE: To prospectively compare indicators of structural brain damage and total cerebral blood flow in patients with late-onset dementia, subjects of the same age with optimal cognitive function, and young subjects. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The institutional ethics committee approved the studies, and all participants (or their guardians) gave informed consent. The test group included 17 patients older than 75 years (four men, 13 women; median age, 83 years) and with a diagnosis of dementia according to the criteria of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition. The control group included 16 subjects (four men, 12 women; median age, 87 years) with optimal cognitive function, who were selected from among 599 elderly subjects enrolled in a population-based follow-up study, and 15 young healthy subjects (seven men, eight women; median age, 29 years). Measurements of intracranial and total brain volumes, structural brain damage, and cerebral blood flow were obtained with magnetic resonance imaging. Mean values were compared with the t test; medians, with the Mann-Whitney U test. RESULTS: Values for total brain volume were significantly smaller in elderly subjects (P < .001) but did not differ significantly between patients with dementia and subjects of the same age with optimal cognitive function (P = .69). Among the elderly, significantly higher scores for number and extent of white matter areas of signal hyperintensity (P = .028) and lower magnetization transfer ratios (P = .016) indicated greater structural brain damage in those with dementia. Cerebral blood flow was 246 mL/min lower (P < .001) in elderly subjects than in young subjects. In patients with dementia, cerebral blood flow was 108 mL/min lower than that in subjects of the same age with optimal cognitive function (551 vs 443 mL/min, P < .001). CONCLUSION: The combined observations of more structural brain damage and lower cerebral blood flow in demented elderly individuals than in subjects of the same age with optimal cognitive function support the hypothesis that vascular factors contribute to dementia in old age

Association of Thyroid Dysfunction with Cognitive Function: An Individual Participant Data Analysis

Importance: In clinical guidelines, overt and subclinical thyroid dysfunction are mentioned as causal and treatable factors for cognitive decline. However, the scientific literature on these associations shows inconsistent findings. Objective: To assess cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of baseline thyroid dysfunction with cognitive function and dementia. Design, Setting, and Participants: This multicohort individual participant data analysis assessed 114267 person-years (median, 1.7-11.3 years) of follow-up for cognitive function and 525222 person-years (median, 3.8-15.3 years) for dementia between 1989 and 2017. Analyses on cognitive function included 21 cohorts comprising 38144 participants. Analyses on dementia included eight cohorts with a total of 2033 cases with dementia and 44573 controls. Data analysis was performed from December 2016 to January 2021. Exposures: Thyroid function was classified as overt hyperthyroidism, subclinical hyperthyroidism, euthyroidism, subclinical hypothyroidism, and overt hypothyroidism based on uniform thyrotropin cutoff values and study-specific free thyroxine values. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was global cognitive function, mostly measured using the Mini-Mental State Examination. Executive function, memory, and dementia were secondary outcomes. Analyses were first performed at study level using multivariable linear regression and multivariable Cox regression, respectively. The studies were combined with restricted maximum likelihood meta-analysis. To overcome the use of different scales, results were transformed to standardized mean differences. For incident dementia, hazard ratios were calculated. Results: Among 74565 total participants, 66567 (89.3%) participants had normal thyroid function, 577 (0.8%) had overt hyperthyroidism, 2557 (3.4%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism, 4167 (5.6%) had subclinical hypothyroidism, and 697 (0.9%) had overt hypothyroidism. The study-specific median age at baseline varied from 57 to 93 years; 42847 (57.5%) participants were women. Thyroid dysfunction was not associated with global cognitive function; the largest differences were observed between overt hypothyroidism and euthyroidism - cross-sectionally (-0.06 standardized mean difference in score; 95% CI, -0.20 to 0.08; P =.40) and longitudinally (0.11 standardized mean difference higher decline per year; 95% CI, -0.01 to 0.23; P =.09). No consistent associations were observed between thyroid dysfunction and executive function, memory, or risk of dementia. Conclusions and Relevance: In this individual participant data analysis of more than 74000 adults, subclinical hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism were not associated with cognitive function, cognitive decline, or incident dementia. No rigorous conclusions can be drawn regarding the role of overt thyroid dysfunction in risk of dementia. These findings do not support the practice of screening for subclinical thyroid dysfunction in the context of cognitive decline in older adults as recommended in current guidelines.