What macroeconomic shocks affect the German banking system? Analysis in an integrated micro-macro model

We analyze what macroeconomic shocks affect the soundness of the German banking system and how this, in turn, feeds back into the macroeconomic environment. Recent turmoils on the international financial markets have shown very clearly that assessing the degree to which banks are vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks is of utmost importance to investors and policy makers. We propose to use a VAR framework that takes feedback effects between the financial sector and the macroeconomic environment into account. We identify responses of a distress indicator for the German banking system to a battery of different structural shocks. We find that monetary policy shocks, fiscal policy shocks, and real estate price shocks have a significant impact on the probability of distress in the banking system. We identify some differences across type of banks and different distress categories, though these differences are often small and do not show any systematic patterns. --VAR,banking sector stability,sign restriction approach

International Bank Portfolios: Short- and Long-Run Responses to the Business Cycle

International bank portfolios constitute a large component of international country portfolios. Yet, their response to macroeconomic conditions and their impact on the international transmission of business cycles developments remains largely unexplored. We use a novel dataset on banks’ international portfolios to answer three questions. First, what are the long-run determinants of banks’ international portfolios? Second, how do banks’ international portfolios adjust to short-run macroeconomic developments? Third, does the speed of adjustment change with the degree of financial integration? We provide evidence of significant long-run cointegration relationships between cross-border assets and liabilities of banks and key macroeconomic variables. Both, the long-run determinants of banks’ international portfolios as well as the short-run dynamics show a significant degree of heterogeneity across countries and, to some extent, over time. Gravitytype variables help explaining differences in the speed of adjustment to new equilibria.international bank portfolios, macroeconomic developments, transmission channels

International Consumption Risk Sharing and Monetary Policy

This project aims at analyzing the impact of monetary policy on the international allocation of risk in a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky prices and international portfolio choice. The model features endogenous firms entry which influences the evolution of equity in each country and alters real exchange rate dynamics. Preliminary results show that there may be substantial deviations from efficient consumption risk sharing in the presence of monetary policy when there are frictions in goods as well as asset markets

International Consumption Risk Sharing with Incomplete Goods and Asset Markets

Perfect consumption risk sharing requires both, frictionless goods as well as frictionless financial market integration. This project aims at analyzing the consequences of both type of frictions for the allocation of risk across countries in a unified framework. To this end, the theoretical model by Ghironi and Melitz (2005) is extended to allow for international trade in equities. This setup incorporates impediments to international trade in goods and assets. Impulse responses show that the degree of financial market integration and the time horizon considered, substantially alter the extent of consumption risk sharing depending on the nature of the underlying shock

Research Note on "International Consumption Risk Sharing with Incomplete Goods and Asset Markets"

Perfect risk sharing requires both, frictionless goods as well as frictionless asset markets. To analyze the consequences of both type of frictions for consumption risk sharing across countries, the model by Ghironi and Melitz (2005) is extended to allow for international trade in equities. The model features fixed costs of exporting as well as variables iceberg costs when shipping goods. Financial markets are incomplete, as only two assets are traded, which cannot span all the uncertainty caused by potential shock scenarios. In models with incomplete asset markets, two well known problems arise. First, the steady state portfolio allocation in a non-stochastic steady state is indeterminate since assets are perfect substitutes. And, second, as noted by Schmitt-Groh\ue9 and Uribe (2003) among others, even transitory shocks may have permanent effects on wealth. This, in turn, may lead to non-stationary responses of the endogenous variables. To deal with these issues, quadratic portfolio costs on asset holdings as in Ghironi, Lee, and Rebucci (2007) are introduced. Besides introducing frictions in asset markets, these costs help to pin down the steady state portfolio allocation and induce model stationarity. This research note gives technical details on the solution of the model. In the following section, the basic setup of the model as well as the main variables and equilibrium conditions of the model are briefly summarized. Section 3 solves for the steady state levels of the endogenous variables

Research Note on "International Consumption Risk Sharing and Monetary Policy"

This model analyzes the impact of monetary policy on international consumption risk sharing. To this end, the setup by Ghironi and Stebunovs (2008) is extended in two dimensions. First, to allow for international portfolio choices, cross-border trade of home and foreign equity is brought in. Second, to assign a non-trivial role to monetary policy, nominal price rigidities are introduced as in Bilbiie, Ghironi, and Melitz (2007). The model features incomplete goods as well as incomplete asset markets. Frictions in goods markets are given by variable iceberg-type costs when shipping goods. Financial markets are incomplete as the set of available assets cannot span all the uncertainty induced by potential shock scenarios. In addition, financial markets are not fully integrated as engagement in asset markets is costly. This research note gives technical details on the solution of the model. In the following section, the basic setup of the model as well as the main variables and equilibrium conditions of the model are briefly summarized. Section 3 presents the steady state

Shocks at large banks and banking sector distress: the Banking Granular Residual

Size matters in banking. In this paper, we explore whether shocks originating at large banks affect the probability of distress of smaller banks and thus the stability of the banking system. Our analysis proceeds in two steps. In a first step, we follow Gabaix (2008a) and construct a measure of idiosyncratic shocks at large banks, the so-called Banking Granular Residual. This measure documents the importance of size effects for the German banking system. In a second step, we incorporate this measure of idiosyncratic shocks at large banks into an integrated stress-testing model for the German banking system following De Graeve et al. (2007). We find that positive shocks at large banks reduce the probability of distress of small banks. --Banking sector distress,size effects,shock propagation,Granular Residual

Three Essays on International Trade in Services

Global trade in services has risen tremendously in recent years. Yet, trade in manufacturing goods still accounts for the lion's share of worldwide trade. However, this picture masks the role of services value added embodied in manufacturing goods. While there is a bulk of empirical work on the firm-level determinants for goods trade, research on services trade has only started very recently due to newly available micro-level data. This thesis tries to shed light on how firms' individual activities shape aggregate services trade on the one hand, and - given the recent threat of protectionism among major industrialised countries - how impediments to firms' international engagement in services trade may reduce overall welfare on the other hand

Foreign direct investment and the equity home bias puzzle

La extensa literatura macroeconómica que pretende explicar el ampliamente observado equity home bias ignora a las empresas internacionalmente activas. En un modelo DSGE que presenta la elección endógena de las empresas de ser activas internacionalmente —ya sea a través de las exportaciones o por medio de la inversión extranjera directa (IED)—, encontramos que las tenencias de capital óptimas de los agentes están sesgadas hacia las empresas nacionales. Nuestro hallazgo indica que la diversificación internacional no es tan negativa como sugieren las medidas empíricas del equity home bias.The vast macroeconomic literature trying to explain the widely observed equity home bias disregards internationally active firms. In a DSGE model that features the endogenous choice of firms to become internationally active through either exports or foreign direct investment (FDI), we find that the optimal equity holdings of agents are biased towards domestic firms. Our finding indicates that international diversification is not as bad as empirical measures of the equity home bias suggest