A mechanism for the Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier

The decline of Arctic sea ice extent has created a pressing need for accurate seasonal predictions of regional summer sea ice. Recent work has shown evidence for an Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier, which may impose a sharp limit on regional forecasts initialized prior to spring. However, the physical mechanism for this barrier has remained elusive. In this work, we perform a daily sea ice mass (SIM) budget analysis in large ensemble experiments from two global climate models to investigate the mechanisms that underpin the spring predictability barrier. We find that predictability is limited in winter months by synoptically driven SIM export and negative feedbacks from sea ice growth. The spring barrier results from a sharp increase in predictability at melt onset, when ice‐albedo feedbacks act to enhance and persist the preexisting export‐generated mass anomaly. These results imply that ice thickness observations collected after melt onset are particularly critical for summer Arctic sea ice predictions

A mechanism for the Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier

The decline of Arctic sea ice extent has created a pressing need for accurate seasonal predictions of regional summer sea ice. Recent work has shown evidence for an Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier, which may impose a sharp limit on regional forecasts initialized prior to spring. However, the physical mechanism for this barrier has remained elusive. In this work, we perform a daily sea ice mass (SIM) budget analysis in large ensemble experiments from two global climate models to investigate the mechanisms that underpin the spring predictability barrier. We find that predictability is limited in winter months by synoptically driven SIM export and negative feedbacks from sea ice growth. The spring barrier results from a sharp increase in predictability at melt onset, when ice‐albedo feedbacks act to enhance and persist the preexisting export‐generated mass anomaly. These results imply that ice thickness observations collected after melt onset are particularly critical for summer Arctic sea ice predictions

What are the key issues regarding the role of geothermal energy in meeting energy needs in the global south?

Globally, the potential of geothermal far exceeds that of all other renewable sources together, although investment in the other sources to date has far exceeded investment in geothermal. World Energy Assessment estimates in 2000 for the global potential of all renewables (EJ/yr) were Geothermal 5000, Solar 1575, Wind 640, Biomass 276, Hydro 50, giving a total of 7541 (UNDP, 2000). When installed, geothermal plants have a far higher capacity factor than other sources (solar depends on the level of direct insolation, wind power on wind, etc.); estimates (REN21, 2009) give wind-power 21%, solar PV 14% but geothermal is at least as high as 75% and often more than 95%, given that once a plant is established it operates continuously except for routine down-time for maintenance and rare break-downs

Managing fisheries for maximum nutrient yield

Wild-caught fish are a bioavailable source of nutritious food that, if managed strategically, could enhance diet quality for billions of people. However, optimising nutrient production from the sea has not been a priority, hindering development of nutrition-sensitive policies. With fisheries management increasingly effective at rebuilding stocks and regulating sustainable fishing, we can now begin to integrate nutritional outcomes within existing management frameworks. Here, we develop a conceptual foundation for managing fisheries for multispecies Maximum Nutrient Yield (mMNY). We empirically test our approach using size-based models of North Sea and Baltic Sea fisheries and show that mMNY is predicted by the relative contribution of nutritious species to total catch and their vulnerability to fishing, leading to trade-offs between catch and specific nutrients. Simulated nutrient yield curves suggest that vitamin D, which is deficient in Northern European diets, was underfished at fishing levels that returned maximum catch weights. Analysis of global catch data shows there is scope for nutrient yields from most of the world's marine fisheries to be enhanced through nutrient-sensitive fisheries management. With nutrient composition data now widely available, we expect our mMNY framework to motivate development of nutrient-based reference points in specific contexts, such as data-limited fisheries. Managing for mMNY alongside policies that promote access to fish could help close nutrient gaps for coastal populations, maximising the contribution of wild-caught fish to global food and nutrition security

Persistently Elevated Right Ventricular Index of Myocardial Performance in Preterm Infants with Incipient Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia

OBJECTIVES: Elevated pulmonary vascular resistance occurs during the first days after birth in all newborn infants and persists in infants at risk for bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD). It is difficult to measure in a non-invasive fashion. We assessed the usefulness of the right ventricular index of myocardial performance (RIMP) to estimate pulmonary vascular resistance in very low birth weight infants. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective echocardiography on day of life (DOL) 2, 7, 14, and 28 in 121 preterm infants (median [quartiles] gestational age 28 [26]-[29] weeks, birth weight 998 [743-1225] g) of whom 36 developed BPD (oxygen supplementation at 36 postmenstrual weeks). RESULTS: RIMP derived by conventional pulsed Doppler technique was unrelated to heart rate or mean blood pressure. RIMP on DOL 2 was similar in infants who subsequently did (0.39 [0.33-0.55]) and did not develop BPD (0.39 [0.28-0.51], p = 0.467). RIMP declined steadily in non-BPD infants but not in BPD infants (DOL 7: 0.31[0.22-0.39] vs. 0.35[0.29-0.48], p = 0.014; DOL 14: 0.23[0.17-0.30] vs. 0.35[0.25-0.43], p<0.001; DOL 28: 0.21[0.15-0.28] vs. 0.31 [0.21-0.35], p = 0.015). CONCLUSIONS: In preterm infants, a decline in RIMP after birth was not observed in those with incipient BPD. The pattern of RIMP measured in preterm infants is commensurate with that of pulmonary vascular resistance

Comparing sexual risks and patterns of alcohol and drug use between injection drug users (IDUs) and non-IDUs who report sexual partnerships with IDUs in St. Petersburg, Russia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To date, the great majority of Russian HIV infections have been diagnosed among IDUs and concerns about the potential for a sexual transmission of HIV beyond the IDU population have increased. This study investigated differences in the prevalence of sexual risk behaviors between IDUs and non-IDUs in St. Petersburg, Russia and assessed associations between substance use patterns and sexual risks within and between those two groups.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cross-sectional survey data and biological test results from 331 IDUs and 65 non-IDUs who have IDU sex partners were analyzed. Multivariate regression was employed to calculate measures of associations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>IDUs were less likely than non-IDUs to report multiple sexual partners and unprotected sex with casual partners. The quantity, frequency and intensity of alcohol use did not differ between IDUs and non-IDUs, but non-IDUs were more likely to engage in alcohol use categorized as risky per the alcohol use disorders identification test (AUDIT-C). Risky sexual practices were independently associated with monthly methamphetamine injection among IDUs and with risky alcohol use among non-IDUs. Having sex when high on alcohol or drugs was associated with unprotected sex only among IDUs.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Greater prevalence of sexual risk among non-IDUs who have IDU sex partners compared to IDUs suggests the potential for sexual transmission of HIV from the high-prevalence IDU population into the general population. HIV prevention programs among IDUs in St. Petersburg owe special attention to risky alcohol use among non-IDUs who have IDU sex partners and the propensity of IDUs to have sex when high on alcohol or drugs and forgo condoms.</p

SN 2019ehk: A Double-peaked Ca-rich Transient with Luminous X-Ray Emission and Shock-ionized Spectral Features

We present panchromatic observations and modeling of the Calcium-rich supernova (SN) 2019ehk in the star-forming galaxy M100 (d ≈ 16.2 Mpc) starting 10 hr after explosion and continuing for ~300 days. SN 2019ehk shows a double-peaked optical light curve peaking at t = 3 and 15 days. The first peak is coincident with luminous, rapidly decaying Swift-XRT–discovered X-ray emission (L_x ≈ 10⁴¹ erg s⁻¹ at 3 days; L_x ∝ t⁻³), and a Shane/Kast spectral detection of narrow Hα and He II emission lines (v ≈ 500 km s⁻¹) originating from pre-existent circumstellar material (CSM). We attribute this phenomenology to radiation from shock interaction with extended, dense material surrounding the progenitor star at r (0.1–1) × 10¹⁷ cm. The photometric and spectroscopic properties during the second light-curve peak are consistent with those of Ca-rich transients (rise-time of t_r = 13.4 ± 0.210 days and a peak B-band magnitude of M_B = −15.1 ± 0.200 mag). We find that SN 2019ehk synthesized (3.1 ± 0.11) × 10⁻² M_⊙ of ⁵⁶Ni and ejected M_(ej) = (0.72 ± 0.040) M⊙ total with a kinetic energy E_k = (1.8 ± 0.10) × 10⁵⁰ erg. Finally, deep HST pre-explosion imaging at the SN site constrains the parameter space of viable stellar progenitors to massive stars in the lowest mass bin (~10 M_⊙) in binaries that lost most of their He envelope or white dwarfs (WDs). The explosion and environment properties of SN 2019ehk further restrict the potential WD progenitor systems to low-mass hybrid HeCO WD+CO WD binaries

A New Model to Produce Infectious Hepatitis C Virus without the Replication Requirement

Numerous constraints significantly hamper the experimental study of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Robust replication in cell culture occurs with only a few strains, and is invariably accompanied by adaptive mutations that impair in vivo infectivity/replication. This problem complicates the production and study of authentic HCV, including the most prevalent and clinically important genotype 1 (subtypes 1a and 1b). Here we describe a novel cell culture approach to generate infectious HCV virions without the HCV replication requirement and the associated cell-adaptive mutations. The system is based on our finding that the intracellular environment generated by a West-Nile virus (WNV) subgenomic replicon rendered a mammalian cell line permissive for assembly and release of infectious HCV particles, wherein the HCV RNA with correct 5′ and 3′ termini was produced in the cytoplasm by a plasmid-driven dual bacteriophage RNA polymerase-based transcription/amplification system. The released particles preferentially contained the HCV-based RNA compared to the WNV subgenomic RNA. Several variations of this system are described with different HCV-based RNAs: (i) HCV bicistronic particles (HCVbp) containing RNA encoding the HCV structural genes upstream of a cell-adapted subgenomic replicon, (ii) HCV reporter particles (HCVrp) containing RNA encoding the bacteriophage SP6 RNA polymerase in place of HCV nonstructural genes, and (iii) HCV wild-type particles (HCVwt) containing unmodified RNA genomes of diverse genotypes (1a, strain H77; 1b, strain Con1; 2a, strain JFH-1). Infectivity was assessed based on the signals generated by the HCV RNA molecules introduced into the cytoplasm of target cells upon virus entry, i.e. HCV RNA replication and protein production for HCVbp in Huh-7.5 cells as well as for HCVwt in HepG2-CD81 cells and human liver slices, and SP6 RNA polymerase-driven firefly luciferase for HCVrp in target cells displaying candidate HCV surface receptors. HCV infectivity was inhibited by pre-incubation of the particles with anti-HCV antibodies and by a treatment of the target cells with leukocyte interferon plus ribavirin. The production of authentic infectious HCV particles of virtually any genotype without the adaptive mutations associated with in vitro HCV replication represents a new paradigm to decipher the requirements for HCV assembly, release, and entry, amenable to analyses of wild type and genetically modified viruses of the most clinically significant HCV genotypes