Screening For Trauma In the Foster Care Community

Children within the foster care community experience health disparities on a variety of levels, from physical and mental health conditions, developmental delay, and impaired social interactions. Many of these conditions can stem from the experience of trauma or adverse childhood events that color each component of their lives. For healthcare providers to be successful in the assessment and treatment of this community, an understanding of traumatic events and the delivery of trauma-informed care is essential. The complex needs of this community are such that the provision of healthcare must be specialized, multidimensional, and organized. The purpose of this project is to assist in the development of a clinic that specializes in the delivery of primary care to the foster care community, with a focus on screening and assessment for the experience of trauma. Children were screened for child trauma as well as for resiliency behaviors, and a tool for chart review was used to examine current health status and services. With the assistance of stakeholders, meticulous follow up on screening results, referrals and recommendations made ensured that no opportunities were missed to provide the highest quality care for this underserved community

Testing the Martingale Difference Hypothesis Using Neural Network Approximations

The martingale difference restriction is an outcome of many theoretical analyses in economics and finance. A large body of econometric literature deals with tests of that restriction. We provide new tests based on radial basis function neural networks. Our work is based on the test design of Blake and Kapetanios (2000, 2003a,b). However, unlike that work we can provide a formal theoretical justification for the validity of these tests using approximation results from Kapetanios and Blake (2007). These results take advantage of the link between the algorithms of Blake and Kapetanios (2000, 2003a,b) and boosting. We carry out a Monte Carlo study of the properties of the new tests and find that they have superior power performance to all existing tests of the martingale difference hypothesis we consider. An empirical application to the S&P500 constituents illustrates the usefulness of our new test.Martingale difference hypothesis, Neural networks, Boosting

Testing for Neglected Nonlinearity in Cointegrating Relationships

This paper proposes pure significance tests for the absence of nonlinearity in cointegrating relationships. No assumption of the functional form of the nonlinearity is made. It is envisaged that the application of such tests could form the first step towards specifying a nonlinear cointegrating relationship for empirical modelling. The asymptotic and small sample properties of our tests are investigated, where special attention is paid to the role of nuisance parameters and a potential resolution using the bootstrap.Cointegration, Nonlinearity, Neural networks, Bootstrap

Testing for ARCH in the Presence of Nonlinearity of Unknown Form in the Conditional Mean

Tests of ARCH are a routine diagnostic in empirical econometric and financial analysis. However, it is well known that misspecification of the conditional mean may lead to spurious rejections of the null hypothesis of no ARCH. Nonlinearity is a prime example of this phenomenon. There is little work on the extent of the effect of neglected nonlinearity on the properties of ARCH tests. This paper provides some such evidence and also new ARCH testing procedures that are robust to the presence of neglected nonlinearity. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the problem is serious and that the new methods alleviate this problem to a very large extent.Nonlinearity, ARCH, Neural networks

Boosting Estimation of RBF Neural Networks for Dependent Data

This paper develops theoretical results for the estimation of radial basis function neural network specifications, for dependent data, that do not require iterative estimation techniques. Use of the properties of regression based boosting algorithms is made. Both consistency and rate results are derived. An application to nonparametric specification testing illustrates the usefulness of the results.Neural Networks, Boosting

Time Consistent Policy in Markov Switching Models

In this paper we consider the quadratic optimal control problem with regime shifts and forward-looking agents. This extends the results of Zampolli (2003) who considered models without forward-looking expectations. Two algorithms are presented: The first algorithm computes the solution of a rational expectation model with random parameters or regime shifts. The second algorithm computes the time-consistent policy and the resulting Nash-Stackelberg equilibrium. The formulation of the problem is of general form and allows for model uncertainty and incorporation of policymaker’s judgement. We apply these methods to compute the optimal (non-linear) monetary policy in a small open economy subject to (symmetric or asymmetric) risks of change in some of its key parameters such as inflation inertia, degree of exchange rate pass-through, elasticity of aggregate demand to interest rate, etc.. We normally find that the time-consistent response to risk is more cautious. Furthermore, the optimal response is in some cases non-monotonic as a function of uncertainty. We also simulate the model under assumptions that the policymaker and the private sector hold the same beliefs over the probabilities of the structural change and different beliefs (as well as different assumptions about the knowledge of each other’s reaction function).monetary policy, regime switching, model uncertainty, time consistency