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Identifiability in Age/Period/Cohort Mortality Models
The addition of a set of cohort parameters to a mortality model can generate complex identifiability issues due to the collinearity between the dimensions of age, period and cohort. These issues can lead to robustness problems and difficulties making projections of future mortality rates. Since many modern mortality models incorporate cohort parameters, we believe that a comprehensive analysis of the identifiability issues in age/period/cohort mortality models is needed. In this paper, we discuss the origin of identifiability issues in general models before applying these insights to simple but commonly used mortality models. We then discuss how to project mortality models so that our forecasts of the future are independent of any arbitrary choices we make when fitting a model to data in order to identify the historical parameters
Herschel/HIFI spectroscopy of the intermediate mass protostar NGC7129 FIRS 2
Herschel/HIFI observations of water from the intermediate mass protostar NGC 7129 FIRS 2 provide a powerful diagnostic of the physical
conditions in this star formation environment. Six spectral settings, covering four H_2^(16)O and two H_2^(18)O lines, were observed and all but one
H_2^(18)O line were detected. The four H_2
^(16)O lines discussed here share a similar morphology: a narrower, ≈6km s^(−1), component centered slightly
redward of the systemic velocity of NGC7129 FIRS 2 and a much broader, ≈25 km s^(−1) component centered blueward and likely associated
with powerful outflows. The narrower components are consistent with emission from water arising in the envelope around the intermediate
mass protostar, and the abundance of H_2O is constrained to ≈10^(−7) for the outer envelope. Additionally, the presence of a narrow self-absorption
component for the lowest energy lines is likely due to self-absorption from colder water in the outer envelope. The broader component, where the
H_2O/CO relative abundance is found to be ≈0.2, appears to be tracing the same energetic region that produces strong CO emission at high J
Herschel/HIFI detections of hydrides towards AFGL 2591: Envelope emission versus tenuous cloud absorption
The Heterodyne Instrument for the Far Infrared (HIFI) onboard the Herschel Space Observatory allows the first observations of light diatomic
molecules at high spectral resolution and in multiple transitions. Here, we report deep integrations using HIFI in different lines of hydrides
towards the high-mass star forming region AFGL 2591. Detected are CH, CH^+, NH, OH^+, H_2O^+, while NH^+ and SH^+ have not been detected. All
molecules except for CH and CH^+ are seen in absorption with low excitation temperatures and at velocities different from the systemic velocity
of the protostellar envelope. Surprisingly, the CH(J_(F,P) = 3/2_(2,−) − 1/2_(1,+)) and CH^+(J = 1−0, J = 2−1) lines are detected in emission at the
systemic velocity. We can assign the absorption features to a foreground cloud and an outflow lobe, while the CH and CH^+ emission stems from
the envelope. The observed abundance and excitation of CH and CH^+ can be explained in the scenario of FUV irradiated outflow walls, where
a cavity etched out by the outflow allows protostellar FUV photons to irradiate and heat the envelope at larger distances driving the chemical
reactions that produce these molecules
Water cooling of shocks in protostellar outflows: Herschel-PACS map of L1157
Context. The far-IR/sub-mm spectral mapping facility provided by the Herschel-PACS and HIFI instruments has made it possible to obtain, for the first time, images of H_2O emission with a spatial resolution comparable to ground based mm/sub-mm observations.
Aims. In the framework of the Water In Star-forming regions with Herschel (WISH) key program, maps in water lines of several outflows from young stars are being obtained, to study the water production in shocks and its role in the outflow cooling. This paper reports the first results of this program, presenting a PACS map of the o-H_2O 179 μm transition obtained toward the young outflow L1157.
Methods. The 179 μm map is compared with those of other important shock tracers, and with previous single-pointing ISO, SWAS, and Odin water observations of the same source that allow us to constrain the H_2O abundance and total cooling.
Results. Strong H_2O peaks are localized on both shocked emission knots and the central source position. The H_2O 179 μm emission is spatially correlated with emission from H_2 rotational lines, excited in shocks leading to a significant enhancement of the water abundance. Water emission peaks along the outflow also correlate with peaks of other shock-produced molecular species, such as SiO and NH_3. A strong H_2O peak is also observed at the location of the proto-star, where none of the other molecules have significant emission. The absolute 179 μm intensity and its intensity ratio to the H_2O 557 GHz line previously observed with Odin/SWAS indicate that the water emission originates in warm compact clumps, spatially unresolved by PACS, having a H_2O abundance of the order of 10^(-4). This testifies that the clumps have been heated for a time long enough to allow the conversion of almost all the available gas-phase oxygen into water. The total H_2O cooling is ~10^(-1) L_☉, about 40% of the cooling due to H_2 and 23% of the total energy released in shocks along the L1157 outflow
Water in massive star-forming regions: HIFI observations of W3 IRS5
We present Herschel observations of the water molecule in the massive star-forming region W3 IRS5. The o-H_(2)^(17)O 1_(10)-1_(01), p-H_(2_^(18)O 1_(11)-0_(00), p-H_(2)O 2_(02)-1_(11), p-H_(2)O 1_(11)-0_(00), o-H_(2)O 2_(21)-2_(12), and o-H_(2)O 2_(12)-1_(01) lines, covering a frequency range from 552 up to 1669 GHz, have been detected at high spectral resolution with HIFI. The water lines in W3 IRS5 show well-defined high-velocity wings that indicate a clear contribution by outflows. Moreover, the systematically blue-shifted absorption in the H_(2)_O lines suggests expansion, presumably driven by the outflow. No infall signatures are detected. The p-H_(2)O 1_(11)-0_(00) and o-H_(2)O 2_(12)-1_(01) lines show absorption from the cold material (T ~ 10 K) in which the high-mass protostellar envelope is embedded. One-dimensional radiative transfer models are used to estimate water abundances and to further study the kinematics of the region. We show that the emission in the rare isotopologues comes directly from the inner parts of the envelope (T ≳ 100 K) where water ices in the dust mantles evaporate and the gas-phase abundance increases. The resulting jump in the water abundance (with a constant inner abundance of 10^(-4)) is needed to reproduce the o-H_(2)^(17)O 1_(10)-1_(01) and p-H_(2)^(18)O 1_(11)-0_(00) spectra in our models. We estimate water abundances of 10^(-8) to 10^(-9) in the outer parts of the envelope (T ≲ 100 K). The possibility of two protostellar objects contributing to the emission is discussed
First results on Martian carbon monoxide from Herschel/HIFI observations
We report on the initial analysis of Herschel/HIFI carbon monoxide (CO) observations of the Martian atmosphere performed between 11 and 16 April 2010. We selected the (7–6) rotational transitions of the isotopes ^(13)CO at 771 GHz and C^(18)O and 768 GHz in order to retrieve the mean vertical profile of temperature and the mean volume mixing ratio of carbon monoxide. The derived temperature profile agrees within less than 5 K with general circulation model (GCM) predictions up to an altitude of 45 km, however, show about 12–15 K lower values at 60 km. The CO mixing ratio was determined as 980 ± 150 ppm, in agreement with the 900 ppm derived from Herschel/SPIRE observations in November 2009
A Dynamic Structural Model for Stock Return Volatility and Trading Volume
This paper seeks to develop a structural model that lets data on asset returns and trading volume speak to whether volatility autocorrelation comes from the fundamental that the trading process is pricing or, is caused by the trading process itself. Returns and volume data argue, in the context of our model, that persistent volatility is caused by traders experimenting with different beliefs based upon past profit experience and their estimates of future profit experience. A major theme of our paper is to introduce adaptive agents in the spirit of Sargent (1993) but have them adapt their strategies on a time scale that is slower than the time scale on which the trading process takes place. This will lead to positive autocorrelation in volatility and volume on the time scale of the trading process which generates returns and volume data. Positive autocorrelation of volatility and volume is caused by persistence of strategy patterns that are associated with high volatility and high volume. Thee following features seen in the data: (i) The autocorrelation function of a measure of volatility such as squared returns or absolute value of returns is positive with a slowly decaying tail. (ii) The autocorrelation function of a measure of trading activity such as volume or turnover is positive with a slowly decaying tail. (iii) The cross correlation function of a measure of volatility such as squared returns is about zero for squared returns with past and future volumes and is positive for squared returns with current volumes. (iv) Abrupt changes in prices and returns occur which are hard to attach to 'news.' The last feature is obtained by a version of the model where the Law of Large Numbers fails in the large economy limit.
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