Coherency-maximizing exploration in the supermarket

In uncertain environments, effective decision makers balance exploiting options that are currently preferred against exploring alternative options that may prove superior. For example, a honeybee foraging for nectar must decide whether to continue exploiting the current patch or move to a new location. When the relative reward of options changes over time, humans explore in a normatively correct fashion, exploring more often when they are uncertain about the relative value of competing options. However, rewards in these laboratory studies were objective (for example, monetary payoff), whereas many real-world decision environments involve subjective evaluations of reward (for example, satisfaction with food choice). In such cases, rather than choices following preferences, preferences may follow choices with subjective reward (that is, value) to maximize coherency between preferences and behaviour 12,13 . If so, increasing coherency would lessen the tendency to explore while uncertainty increases, contrary to previous findings. To evaluate this possibility, we examined the exploratory choices of more than 280,000 anonymized individuals in supermarkets over several years. Consumers’ patterns of exploratory choice ran counter to normative models for objective rewards — the longer the exploitation streak for a product, the less likely people were to explore an alternative. Furthermore, customers preferred coupons to explore alternative products when they had recently started an exploitation streak. These findings suggest interventions to promote healthy lifestyle choices

Using self-determination theory to promote adolescent girls' physical activity: Exploring the theoretical fidelity of the Bristol Girls Dance Project

OBJECTIVES: To report the theory-based process evaluation of the Bristol Girls' Dance Project, a cluster-randomised controlled trial to increase adolescent girls' physical activity. DESIGN: A mixed-method process evaluation of the intervention's self-determination theory components comprising lesson observations, post-intervention interviews and focus groups. METHOD: Four intervention dance lessons per dance instructor were observed, audio recorded and rated to estimate the use of need-supportive teaching strategies. Intervention participants (n = 281) reported their dance instructors' provision of autonomy-support. Semi-structured interviews with the dance instructors (n = 10) explored fidelity to the theory and focus groups were conducted with participants (n = 59) in each school to explore their receipt of the intervention and views on the dance instructors' motivating style. RESULTS: Although instructors accepted the theory-based approach, intervention fidelity was variable. Relatedness support was the most commonly observed need-supportive teaching behaviour, provision of structure was moderate and autonomy-support was comparatively low. The qualitative findings identified how instructors supported competence and developed trusting relationships with participants. Fidelity was challenged where autonomy provision was limited to option choices rather than input into the pace or direction of lessons and where controlling teaching styles were adopted, often to manage disruptive behaviour. CONCLUSION: The successes and challenges to achieving theoretical fidelity in the Bristol Girls' Dance Project may help explain the intervention effects and can more broadly inform the design of theory-based complex interventions aimed at increasing young people's physical activity in after-school settings

Impact of antibiotics for children presenting to general practice with cough on adverse outcomes: secondary analysis from a multicentre prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Clinicians commonly prescribe antibiotics to prevent major adverse outcomes in children presenting in primary care with cough and respiratory symptoms, despite limited meaningful evidence of impact on these outcomes. AIM: To estimate the effect of children's antibiotic prescribing on adverse outcomes within 30 days of initial consultation. DESIGN AND SETTING: Secondary analysis of 8320 children in a multicentre prospective cohort study, aged 3 months to <16 years, presenting in primary care across England with acute cough and other respiratory symptoms. METHOD: Baseline clinical characteristics and antibiotic prescribing data were collected, and generalised linear models were used to estimate the effect of antibiotic prescribing on adverse outcomes within 30 days (subsequent hospitalisations and reconsultation for deterioration), controlling for clustering and clinicians' propensity to prescribe antibiotics. RESULTS: Sixty-five (0.8%) children were hospitalised and 350 (4%) reconsulted for deterioration. Clinicians prescribed immediate and delayed antibiotics to 2313 (28%) and 771 (9%), respectively. Compared with no antibiotics, there was no clear evidence that antibiotics reduced hospitalisations (immediate antibiotic risk ratio [RR] 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.47 to 1.45; delayed RR 0.70, 95% CI = 0.26 to 1.90, overall P = 0.44). There was evidence that delayed (rather than immediate) antibiotics reduced reconsultations for deterioration (immediate RR 0.82, 95% CI = 0.65 to 1.07; delayed RR 0.55, 95% CI = 0.34 to 0.88, overall P = 0.024). CONCLUSION: Most children presenting with acute cough and respiratory symptoms in primary care are not at risk of hospitalisation, and antibiotics may not reduce the risk. If an antibiotic is considered, a delayed antibiotic prescription may be preferable as it is likely to reduce reconsultation for deterioration

Bristol Girls Dance Project: a cluster randomised controlled trial of an after-school dance programme to increase physical activity among 11- to 12-year-old girls

BACKGROUND: Many children do not meet UK physical activity (PA) guidelines. Girls are less active than boys, and the age-related decline in activity is steeper for girls. Dance is the favourite form of PA among adolescent girls in the UK. Participation in after-school dance classes could significantly contribute to girls’ PA. Therefore, after-school dance may be effective for increasing PA levels. OBJECTIVES: To determine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a dance-based intervention to increase the objectively assessed mean weekday minutes of moderate- to vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA) of Year 7 girls (11- and 12-year olds) 1 year after baseline measurement. DESIGN:Two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation. Year 7 girls in participant schools received a ‘taster’ session and were invited to participate. Up to 33 girls per school were able to participate. Schools were randomly assigned (equal numbers) to intervention or control arms. SETTING:A total of 18 mainstream secondary schools across greater Bristol. PARTICIPANTS: Year 7 girls in participating schools who could participate in physical education. INTERVENTION: Nine intervention schools received an after-school dance intervention (40 × 75-minute sessions) underpinned by self-determination theory, which attempts to improve intrinsic motivation for being active, and delivered by external dance instructors. Control schools continued as normal. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome was accelerometer-assessed mean minutes of MVPA at T2. Measures were assessed at baseline (T0), the end of the intervention (T1) and at T0 + 52 weeks (T2). RESULTS:Baseline MVPA levels were high. A total of 508 girls were included in the primary analysis, which found no difference in weekday MVPA between trial arms. There was no effect on secondary accelerometer outcomes. Data were subjected to a per-protocol analysis and no effect was found. However, at T1, girls who attended dance classes had 4.61 minutes more of MVPA and 14.27 minutes more of light-intensity activity between 15.00 and 17.00 on the days on which they attended intervention sessions. The intervention was inexpensive at £73 per participant (£63 when excluding dance instructor travel) but was not cost-effective owing to the ineffectiveness of the intervention. The European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions Youth survey data were unresponsive to changes in the sample. The process evaluation reported that girls in attendance enjoyed the sessions, that exertion levels were low during sessions and that attendance was low and declined. Fidelity to the session-plan manual was low but theoretical fidelity (to self-determination theory) was good. Qualitative information provides information for improving future interventions. CONCLUSIONS: The intervention was enjoyed by participants. However, there was no difference in the MVPA levels (which were high at baseline) of girls allocated to receive dance compared with girls receiving the control. High baseline MVPA levels indicate that the study appealed to an already active cohort and, therefore, may not have targeted those most in need of an intervention. Dance is an enjoyable activity for adolescent girls and could be further trialled as a means by which to increase PA. Research might consider the impact of dividing the intervention period into smaller blocks. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN52882523. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Public Health Research programme. The work was also undertaken with the support of the Centre for the Development and Evaluation of Complex Interventions for Public Health Improvement (DECIPHer), a UK Clinical Research Collaboration (UKCRC) PHR Centre of Excellence. Joint funding (MR/KO232331/1) from the British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, the Welsh Government and the Wellcome Trust, under the auspices of the UKCRC, is gratefully acknowledged. This study was designed and delivered in collaboration with the Bristol Randomised Trials Collaboration, a UKCRC Registered Clinical Trials Unit in receipt of NIHR Clinical Trials Unit support funding. All intervention costs were funded by the respective councils to which the participant schools were affiliated, namely North Somerset Council, Bristol City Council, and Bath and North East Somerset Council

Postnatal parental smoking: an important risk factor for SIDS

Background: Sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) is the unexpected death of an infant that remains unexplained after a thorough investigation of the circumstances, family history, paediatric investigation and complete autopsy. In Western society, it is the leading cause of post-neonatal death below 1 year of age. In the Netherlands, the SIDS incidence is very low, which offers opportunities to assess the importance of old and new environmental risk factors. For this purpose, cases were collected through pathology departments and the working group on SIDS of the Dutch Paediatrician Foundation. A total of 142 cases were included; these occurred after the parental education on sleeping position (1987), restricted to the international age criteria and had no histological explanation. Age-matched healthy controls (N∈=∈2,841) came from a survey of the Netherlands Paediatric Surveillance Unit, completed between November 2002 and April 2003. A multivariate analysis was performed to determine the risk factors for SIDS, including sleeping position, antenatal maternal smoking, postnatal parental smoking, premature birth, gender, lack of breastfeeding and socio-economic status. Postnatal smoking was identified as an important environmental risk factor for SIDS (OR one parent∈=∈2.5 [1.2, 5.0]; both parents∈=∈5.77 [2.2, 15.5]; maternal∈=∈2.7 [1.0, 6.4]; paternal∈=∈2.4 [1.3, 4.5] ) as was prone sleeping (OR put prone to sleep∈=∈21.5 [10.6, 43.5]; turned prone during sleep∈=∈100 [46, 219]). Premature birth was also significantly associated with SIDS (OR∈=∈2.4 [1.2, 4.8]). Conclusion: Postnatal parental smoking is currently a major environmental risk factor for SIDS in the Netherlands together with the long-established risk of prone sleeping

Transforming Post-Secondary Education in Mathematics

In this manuscript, I introduce and describe the work of mathematicians and mathematics educators in the group Transforming Post-Secondary Education in Mathematics (TPSE Math or TPSE, pronounced "tipsy", for short). TPSE aims to coordinate and drive constructive change in education in the mathematical sciences at two-year colleges, four-year colleges, and universities across the nation. It seeks to build on the successes of the entire mathematical sciences community. This manuscript reviews the events that led to the founding of TPSE Math and articulates its vision and mission. In its first phase with national events, TPSE found broad consensus with the mathematical sciences community on the challenges facing the community. Learning from educational transformations experiences in other scientific fields, and with the support of the Mathematical Advisory Group of 34 mathematical sciences department chairs and leaders, TPSE moves into a second phase focused on action. This is a snapshot in time, and TPSE's ongoing activities will continue to be documented and disseminated. The piece concludes with a reflection of the impact that my involvement in this work has had on my career.Comment: 17 page

What gives rise to clinician gut feeling, its influence on management decisions and its prognostic value for children with RTI in primary care: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The objectives were to identify 1) the clinician and child characteristics associated with; 2) clinical management decisions following from, and; 3) the prognostic value of; a clinician's 'gut feeling something is wrong' for children presenting to primary care with acute cough and respiratory tract infection (RTI). METHODS: Multicentre prospective cohort study where 518 primary care clinicians across 244 general practices in England assessed 8394 children aged ≥3 months and < 16 years for acute cough and RTI. The main outcome measures were: Self-reported clinician 'gut feeling'; clinician management decisions (antibiotic prescribing, referral for acute admission); and child's prognosis (reconsultation with evidence of illness deterioration, hospital admission in the 30 days following recruitment). RESULTS: Clinician years since qualification, parent reported symptoms (illness severity score ≥ 7/10, severe fever < 24 h, low energy, shortness of breath) and clinical examination findings (crackles/ crepitations on chest auscultation, recession, pallor, bronchial breathing, wheeze, temperature ≥ 37.8 °C, tachypnoea and inflamed pharynx) independently contributed towards a clinician 'gut feeling that something was wrong'. 'Gut feeling' was independently associated with increased antibiotic prescribing and referral for secondary care assessment. After adjustment for other associated factors, gut feeling was not associated with reconsultations or hospital admissions. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians were more likely to report a gut feeling something is wrong, when they were more experienced or when children were more unwell. Gut feeling is independently and strongly associated with antibiotic prescribing and referral to secondary care, but not with two indicators of poor child health

Unintentional asphyxia, SIDS, and medically explained deaths:A descriptive study of outcomes of child death review (CDR) investigations following sudden unexpected death in infancy

Background: A comprehensive Child Death Review (CDR) program was introduced in England and Wales in 2008 but as yet data have only been analysed at a local level, limiting the learning from deaths. The aim of this study is to describe the profile of causes and risk factors for Sudden Unexpected Death in Infancy (SUDI) as determined by the new CDR program. Methods: This was a descriptive outcome study using data from Child Death Overview Panel (CDOP) Form C for SUDI cases dying during 2010-2 in the West Midlands region of England. The main outcome measures were: cause of death, risk factors and potential preventability of death, and determination of deaths probably due to unintentional asphyxia. Results: Data were obtained for 65/70 (93%) SUDI cases. 20/65 (31%) deaths were initially categorised as due to medical causes; 21/65 (32%) as SIDS, and 24/65 (37%) as undetermined. Reanalysis suggested that 2/21 SIDS and 7/24 undetermined deaths were probably due to unintentional asphyxia, with 6 of these involving co-sleeping and excessive parental alcohol consumption. Deaths classified as ‘undetermined’ had significantly higher total family and environmental risk factor scores (mean 2.6, 95% CI 2.0– 3.3) compared to those classified as SIDS (mean 1.6, 95% CI 1.2-1.9), or medical causes for death (mean 1.1, 95% CI 0.8-1.3). 9/20 (47%) of medical deaths, 19/21 (90%) SIDS and 23/24 (96%) undetermined deaths were considered to be potentially preventable. There were inadequacies in medical provision identified in 5/20 (25%) of medically explained deaths. Conclusions: The CDR program results in detailed information about risk factors for SUDI cases but failed to recognise deaths probably due to unintentional asphyxia. The misclassification of probable unintentional asphyxial deaths and SIDS as ‘undetermined deaths’ is likely to limit learning from these deaths and inhibit prevention strategies. Many SUDI occurred in families with mental illness, substance misuse and chaotic lifestyles and most in unsafe sleep-environments. This knowledge could be used to better target safe sleep advice for vulnerable families and prevent SUDI in the future

Development and internal validation of a clinical rule to improve antibiotic use in children presenting to primary care with acute respiratory tract infection and cough: a prognostic cohort study

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance is a serious threat to public health, with most antibiotics prescribed in primary care. General practitioners (GPs) report defensive antibiotic prescribing to mitigate perceived risk of future hospital admission in children with respiratory tract infections. We developed a clinical rule aimed to reduce clinical uncertainty by stratifying risk of future hospital admission. METHODS: 8394 children aged between 3 months and 16 years presenting with acute cough (for ≤28 days) and respiratory tract infection were recruited to a prognostic cohort study from 247 general practitioner practices in England. Exposure variables included demographic characteristics, parent-reported symptoms, and physical examination signs. The outcome was hospital admission for respiratory tract infection within 30 days, collected using a structured, blinded review of medical records. FINDINGS: 8394 (100%) children were included in the analysis, with 78 (0·9%, 95% CI 0·7%-1·2%) admitted to hospital: 15 (19%) were admitted on the day of recruitment (day 1), 33 (42%) on days 2-7; and 30 (39%) on days 8-30. Seven characteristics were independently associated (p<0·01) with hospital admission: age <2 years, current asthma, illness duration of 3 days or less, parent-reported moderate or severe vomiting in the previous 24 h, parent-reported severe fever in the previous 24 h or a body temperature of 37·8°C or more at presentation, clinician-reported intercostal or subcostal recession, and clinician-reported wheeze on auscultation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for the coefficient-based clinical rule was 0·82 (95% CI 0·77-0·87, bootstrap validated 0·81). Assigning one point per characteristic, a points-based clinical rule consisting of short illness, temperature, age, recession, wheeze, asthma, and vomiting (mnemonic STARWAVe; AUROC 0·81, 0·76-0·85) distinguished three hospital admission risk strata: very low (0·3%, 0·2-0·4%) with 1 point or less, normal (1·5%, 1·0-1·9%) with 2 or 3 points, and high (11·8%, 7·3-16·2%) with 4 points or more. INTERPRETATION: Clinical characteristics can distinguish children at very low, normal, and high risk of future hospital admission for respiratory tract infection and could be used to reduce antibiotic prescriptions in primary care for children at very low risk. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)

The Rationale and Design of the Reducing Pathology in Alzheimer's Disease through Angiotensin TaRgeting (RADAR) Trial

BACKGROUND: Anti-hypertensives that modify the renin angiotensin system may reduce Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology and reduce the rate of disease progression. OBJECTIVE: To conduct a phase II, two arm, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized trial of losartan to test the efficacy of Reducing pathology in Alzheimer's Disease through Angiotensin TaRgeting (RADAR). METHODS: Men and women aged at least 55 years with mild-to-moderate AD will be randomly allocated 100 mg encapsulated generic losartan or placebo once daily for 12 months after successful completion of a 2-week open-label phase and 2-week placebo washout to establish drug tolerability. 228 participants will provide at least 182 subjects with final assessments to provide 84% power to detect a 25% difference in atrophy rate (therapeutic benefit) change over 12 months at an alpha level of 0.05. We will use intention-to-treat analysis, estimating between-group differences in outcomes derived from appropriate (linear or logistic) multivariable regression models adjusting for minimization variables. RESULTS: The primary outcome will be rate of whole brain atrophy as a surrogate measure of disease progression. Secondary outcomes will include changes to 1) white matter hyperintensity volume and cerebral blood flow; 2) performance on a standard series of assessments of memory, cognitive function, activities of daily living, and quality of life. Major assessments (for all outcomes) and relevant safety monitoring of blood pressure and bloods will be at baseline and 12 months. Additional cognitive assessment will also be conducted at 6 months along with safety blood pressure and blood monitoring. Monitoring of blood pressure, bloods, and self-reported side effects will occur during the open-label phase and during the majority of the post-randomization dispensing visits. CONCLUSION: This study will identify whether losartan is efficacious in the treatment of AD and whether definitive Phase III trials are warranted