Geographic range expansion of alien birds and environmental matching

The international wildlife trade is a significant source of introduced alien species, some of which proceed to become invasive and cause negative environmental and economic effects. However, not all introduced aliens establish viable populations, and it is important to identify the factors that determine establishment success. We explored the role of environmental suitability (including anthropogenic influences, climate and habitat types) in establishment success for alien bird species introduced to Taiwan. Using maximum entropy modelling, we employed a recursive feature elimination and AIC1based stepwise model selection approach to test whether the environmental suitability, native range size, body size, residence time and the numbers of birds for sale in the shops affect variation in the extent of alien bird range size in Taiwan. We show that species with larger native range sizes and larger body sizes also tend to have larger alien range sizes in Taiwan. There is no effect of environmental suitability on alien range size in Taiwan, but environmental suitability does influence bird species establishment success there

Patterns of selectivity in introductions of mammal species worldwide

Humans have an extremely long history of transporting and introducing mammal species outside their native geographic range. The characteristics of the species introduced (taxonomy, life-history, ecology, environment) can all influence which traits are available (and selected) for establishment, and subsequent invasive spread. Understanding the non-randomness in species introductions is therefore key to understanding invasions by alien species. Here, we test for selectivity in the identities and traits of mammal species introduced worldwide. We compiled and analysed a comprehensive database of introduced mammal species, including information on a broad range of life history, ecological, distributional and environmental variables that we predicted to differ between introduced and non-introduced mammal species. Certain mammal taxa are much more likely to have been introduced than expected, such as Artiodactyls in the families Bovidae and Cervidae. Rodents and bats were much less likely to have been introduced than expected. Introduced mammal species have significantly larger body masses, longer lifespans and larger litter sizes than a random sample of all mammal species. They also have much larger native geographic ranges than expected, originate from significantly further north, from cooler areas, and from areas with higher human population densities, than mammal species with no recorded introductions. The traits and distributions of species help determine which have been introduced, and reflect how the evolutionary history of mammals has resulted in certain species with certain traits being located in the way of human histories of movement and demands for goods and services. The large amount of unexplained variation is likely to relate to the intrinsically stochastic nature of this human-driven process

A global analysis of the determinants of alien geographic range size in birds

Aim Determining the causes of range size variation in the distributions of alien species is important for understanding the spread of invasive species. Factors influencing alien range size have been explored for some species at a regional level, but to date there has been no global analysis of an entire class. Here, we present such an analysis for birds, testing for the effects of introduction event, location and species-level variables on alien range sizes. Location Global. Methods We used a novel dataset on the global distributions of alien bird species to test for relationships between alien range size and colonization pressure, residence time, extent of the global climatic niche, native range size, body mass and specialization, using a statistical approach based on phylogenetic generalized least squares models. We performed this analysis globally, and for separate biogeographical realms. Results Approximately half of the variation in alien bird range size is explained by colonization pressure in univariate analysis. We identified consistent effects of higher colonization pressure at global and realm levels, as well as support for effects of native range size and residence time. We found less support for effects of body mass, specialization or extent of the global climatic niche on alien range size. Main conclusions Alien bird range sizes are generally small relative to their native range sizes, and many are continuing to expand. Nevertheless, current variation is predictable, most strongly by the event-level factor of colonization pressure. Whether a species is widespread is a better predictor of alien range size than whether a species could be widespread (estimated by global climatic niche extent), while we also find effects of residence time on alien range size. These relationships may help to identify those alien species that are more likely to spread and hence have greater environmental and economic impacts where they have been introduced

The Rise of Invasive Species Denialism

Scientific consensus on the negative impacts of invasive alien species is increasingly being challenged. Whereas informed scepticism of impacts is important, science denialism is counter-productive. Such denialism arises when uncertainty on impacts is confounded by differences in values. Debates on impacts must take in to account both the evidence presented and motivations

The Distribution of gull Larus species on the Red Sea coast of Sudan

We present information on the status of gull species on the Red Sea coast of Sudan on the basis of observations made during a ten day visit to the region in January 2010. Seven gull taxa were recorded in this time. Sooty Larus hemprichii, Slender-billed L. genei, and Pallas’s L. ichthyaetus Gulls were all widespread along the coast, with Sooty Gull being the most abundant species encountered. Our sightings confirmed Pallas’s Gull as a winter visitor to this coast, and showed that Slender-billed Gull is widespread here. White-eyed L. leucophthalmus, Steppe L. (cachinnans) barabensis, Baltic L. fuscus fuscus, and Black-headed L. ridibundus Gulls were also encountered, but only around the harbours of Port Sudan and Suakin

Bergmann's rule in alien birds

Native bird species show latitudinal gradients in body size across species (Bergmann's rule), but whether or not such gradients are recapitulated in the alien distributions of bird species are unknown. Here, we test for the existence of Bergmann's rule in alien bird species worldwide, and investigate the causes of the observed patterns. Published databases were used to obtain the worldwide distributions of established alien bird populations, the locations of alien bird introductions, and bird body masses. Randomisation tests and linear models were used to assess latitudinal patterns in the body masses of introduced and established alien bird populations. Established alien bird species exhibit Bergmann's rule, but this is largely explained by where alien bird species have been introduced: latitudinal variation in the body masses of established alien bird species simply reflects latitudinal variation in the body masses of introduced species. There is some evidence that body mass is implicated in whether or not established species' alien ranges spread towards or contract away from the Equator following establishment. However, most alien bird ranges are encompassed by the latitudinal band(s) to which the species was introduced. Bergmann's rule in alien birds is therefore a consequence of where humans have introduced different species, rather than of natural processes operating after population introduction

The global rise in emerging alien species results from increased accessibility of new source pools

Our ability to predict the identity of future invasive alien species is largely based upon knowledge of prior invasion history. Emerging alien species—those never encountered as aliens before—therefore pose a significant challenge to biosecurity interventions worldwide. Understanding their temporal trends, origins, and the drivers of their spread is pivotal to improving prevention and risk assessment tools. Here, we use a database of 45,984 first records of 16,019 established alien species to investigate the temporal dynamics of occurrences of emerging alien species worldwide. Even after many centuries of invasions the rate of emergence of new alien species is still high: One-quarter of first records during 2000–2005 were of species that had not been previously recorded anywhere as alien, though with large variation across taxa. Model results show that the high proportion of emerging alien species cannot be solely explained by increases in well-known drivers such as the amount of imported commodities from historically important source regions. Instead, these dynamics reflect the incorporation of new regions into the pool of potential alien species, likely as a consequence of expanding trade networks and environmental change. This process compensates for the depletion of the historically important source species pool through successive invasions. We estimate that 1–16% of all species on Earth, depending on the taxonomic group, qualify as potential alien species. These results suggest that there remains a high proportion of emerging alien species we have yet to encounter, with future impacts that are difficult to predict

How to incorporate information on propagule pressure in the analysis of alien establishment success

1. Identifying the factors that determine the success of biological invasions has major consequences for both ecological theory and conservation decision-making. Reliably inferring these factors depends on adequately accounting for the known effects of propagule pressure on establishment success, but detailed information on the size and number of introduced populations is often lacking. / 2. Here, we conduct simulations to explore the effects of incomplete knowledge of propagule pressure on inferences regarding the correlates of establishment success. We compare situations where we have complete information on propagule number and propagule size across species, allowing success to be modelled at the population scale (population-level analysis), with those where data for propagule size (species-level analysis) and both propagule size and number (location-level analysis) are unavailable. We assess the ability to correctly infer the effects of a covariate on establishment success when this covariate exhibits varying degrees of correlation with propagule pressure. / 3. We show that when establishment success is modelled at the level of species, rather than populations, this leads to an elevated tendency to incorrectly infer the effects of species-level traits on establishment success (higher type 1 error and lower power), particularly when traits in question are strongly associated with propagule pressure. These biases are magnified when using proxies for propagule pressure, such as the number of locations where species have been introduced, and are magnified further when these proxies are converted to binary variables. / 4. Our results validate the current best practice for the analysis of establishment success in alien species at the population level, when the effects of propagule size and a covariate predicting establishment probability can both be reliably inferred. However, given the growing interest in understanding correlates of biological invasions, they strongly urge caution in interpreting results based on incomplete knowledge of propagule pressure

Evaluating Bayesian spatial methods for modelling species distributions with clumped and restricted occurrence data

Statistical approaches for inferring the spatial distribution of taxa (Species Distribution Models, SDMs) commonly rely on available occurrence data, which is often clumped and geographically restricted. Although available SDM methods address some of these factors, they could be more directly and accurately modelled using a spatially-explicit approach. Software to fit models with spatial autocorrelation parameters in SDMs are now widely available, but whether such approaches for inferring SDMs aid predictions compared to other methodologies is unknown. Here, within a simulated environment using 1000 generated species’ ranges, we compared the performance of two commonly used non-spatial SDM methods (Maximum Entropy Modelling, MAXENT and boosted regression trees, BRT), to a spatial Bayesian SDM method (fitted using R-INLA), when the underlying data exhibit varying combinations of clumping and geographic restriction. Finally, we tested how any recommended methodological settings designed to account for spatially non-random patterns in the data impact inference. Spatial Bayesian SDM method was the most consistently accurate method, being in the top 2 most accurate methods in 7 out of 8 data sampling scenarios. Within high-coverage sample datasets, all methods performed fairly similarly. When sampling points were randomly spread, BRT had a 1–3% greater accuracy over the other methods and when samples were clumped, the spatial Bayesian SDM method had a 4%-8% better AUC score. Alternatively, when sampling points were restricted to a small section of the true range all methods were on average 10–12% less accurate, with greater variation among the methods. Model inference under the recommended settings to account for autocorrelation was not impacted by clumping or restriction of data, except for the complexity of the spatial regression term in the spatial Bayesian model. Methods, such as those made available by R-INLA, can be successfully used to account for spatial autocorrelation in an SDM context and, by taking account of random effects, produce outputs that can better elucidate the role of covariates in predicting species occurrence. Given that it is often unclear what the drivers are behind data clumping in an empirical occurrence dataset, or indeed how geographically restricted these data are, spatially-explicit Bayesian SDMs may be the better choice when modelling the spatial distribution of target species

Environmental resistance predicts the spread of alien species

The unabating rise in the number of species introduced outside of their native range makes predicting the spread of alien species an urgent challenge. Most predictions use models of the ecological niche of a species to identify suitable areas for invasion, but these predictions may have limited accuracy. Here, using the global alien avifauna, we demonstrate an alternative approach for predicting alien spread based on the environmental resistance of the landscape. This approach does not require any information on the ecological niche of the invading species and, instead, uses gradients of biotic similarity among native communities in the invaded region to predict the most likely routes of spread. We show that environmental resistance predicts patterns of spread better than a null model of random dispersal or a model based on climate matching to the native range of each species. Applying this approach to simulate future spread reveals major regional differences in projected invasion risk, shaped by proximity to existing invasion hotspots as well as gradients in environmental resistance. Our results show how environmental resistance may provide a general and complementary approach for predicting invasion risk that can be rapidly deployed even when information on the niche or the identity of potential invaders is unknown