COVID 19 Epidemic Trajectory Modeling Results for Ethiopia

AbstractBackground: An outbreak of “pneumonia of unknown etiology" later renamed as Novel Corona Virus (COVID 19) was first reported from Hubei Province, China on 31 December 2019. The cases have increased exponentially; the pandemic has reached all countries in the world with 81.2 million confirmed cases and over 1.8 million by December 28, 2020. Ethiopia reported its first case on March 13, 2020, and as of December 28, 2020, the country had 122864 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 1909 deaths. Being a new pandemic its epidemiologic trajectories across regions and populations remains unknown. Mathematical models are widely used to understand and predict the possible courses of an outbreak, given a set of underlying assumptions. Objective: This study intends to model COVID 19 epidemic trajectory under different assumptions and to predict the likely timing of peak of the epidemic in Ethiopia. Methods: Standard Susceptible Exposed, Infected and Recovery (SEIR) compartmental epidemiological deterministic model was employed to estimate and predict COVID 19 in progression in Ethiopia and Addis Ababa at different points of time. Exhaustive literature reviews were carried out to contextualize COVID 19 pandemic epidemiological. Efficacy and coverage of face mask and social distancing were considered in the best and worst situation to run the model and estimate the number of infections after sustained local transmissions. Result. Without any intervention, the COVID 19 viruses spread will peak at 150 days from the first report, infecting 8.01million people given local/community transmission. As the compliance with face mask coverage increases by 25%, 50%, and 75%, the infection will be reduced by about 20%, 40%, and 60% respectively social distancing compliance by le 25% of the population alone will reduce above 60% of infections. Compliance of 40% face mask use and social distance combined effect will reduce 97% of the estimated number of cases. Conclusion: This predication indicated that compliance with combination of non-pharmaceutical intervention such as use of face mask use with physical distance averted significant number of COVID infection. For a county like Ethiopia with poor health systems resilience, mitigating the pandemic at an early stage through strong preventive measures is necessary. [Ethiop. J. Health Dev. 2021; 35(SI-1):25-32] Key word: COVID 19, Modelling, Non-Pharmaceutica intervention, Ethiopi

Prevalence of drug resistance-conferring mutations associated with isoniazid- and rifampicin-resistant mycobacterium tuberculosis in Ethiopia : a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES : Globally, the incidence and mortality of tuberculosis (TB) are declining; however, low detection of drug-resistant disease threatens to reverse current progress toward global TB control. Multiple rapid molecular diagnostic tests have recently been developed to detect genetic mutations in Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) known to confer drug resistance. However, their utility depends on the frequency and distribution of resistance-associated mutations in the pathogen population. This review aimed to assess the prevalence of gene mutations associated with rifampicin (RIF)- and isoniazid (INH)-resistant Mtb in Ethiopia. METHODS : We searched the literature in PubMed/MEDLINE, Web of Science, Scopus and Cochrane Library. Data analysis was conducted in Stata 11. RESULTS : Totally, 909 (95.8%) of 949 INH-resistant Mtb isolates had detectable gene mutations: 95.8% in katG 315 and 5.9% in the inhA promoter region. Meta-analysis resulted in an estimated pooled prevalence of katG MUT1(S315T1) of 89.2% (95% CI 81.94–96.43%) and a pooled prevalence of inhA MUT1(C15T) of 77.5% (95% CI 57.84–97.13%). Moreover, 769 (90.8%) of 847 RIF-resistant strains had detectable rpoB gene mutations. Meta-analysis resulted in a pooled prevalence of rpoB MUT3(S531L) of 74.2% (95% CI 66.39–82.00%). CONCLUSION : RIF-resistant Mtb were widespread, particularly those harbouring rpoB (S531L) mutation. Sim- ilarly, INH-resistant Mtb with katG (S315T1) and inhA (C15T) mutations were common. Tracking S531L, S315T1 and C15T mutations among RIF- and INH-resistant isolates, respectively, would be diagnostically and epidemiologically valuable. Rapid diagnosis of RIF- and INH-resistant Mtb would expedite modifica- tion of TB treatment regimens, and proper timely infection control interventions could reduce the risk of development and transmission of multidrug-resistant TB.http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jgaram2022Medical Microbiolog

Mycobacterium tuberculosis drug resistance in Ethiopia : an updated systematic review and meta-analysis

SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS : FIGURES S1A–E; FIGURES S2A–D; FIGURES S3A–D; FIGURES S4A–D; FIGURES S5A–D; FIGURES S6A–E; FIGURES S7A–D; FIGURES S8A–D. TABLE S1: PRISMA- 2020-checklist; TABLE S2: Search Strategy Medline/PubMed; TABLE S3: Quality assessments.DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT : The datasets analyzed during this review can be accessed from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.BACKGROUND : Tuberculosis (TB) remains a significant global public health issue, despite advances in diagnostic technologies, substantial global efforts, and the availability of effective chemotherapies. Mycobacterium tuberculosis, a species of pathogenic bacteria resistant to currently available anti-TB drugs, is on the rise, threatening national and international TB-control efforts. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to estimate the pooled prevalence of drug-resistant TB (DR-TB) in Ethiopia. MATERIALS AND METHODS : A systematic literature search was undertaken using PubMed/MEDLINE, HINARI, theWeb of Science, ScienceDirect electronic databases, and Google Scholar (1 January 2011 to 30 November 2020). After cleaning and sorting the records, the data were analyzed using STATA 11. The study outcomes revealed the weighted pooled prevalence of any anti-tuberculosis drug resistance, any isoniazid (INH) and rifampicin (RIF) resistance, monoresistance to INH and RIF, and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) in newly diagnosed and previously treated patients with TB. RESULTS : A total of 24 studies with 18,908 patients with TB were included in the final analysis. The weighted pooled prevalence of any anti-TB drug resistance was 14.25% (95% confidence interval (CI): 7.05–21.44%)), whereas the pooled prevalence of any INH and RIF resistance was found in 15.62% (95%CI: 6.77–24.47%) and 9.75% (95%CI: 4.69–14.82%) of patients with TB, respectively. The pooled prevalence for INH and RIF-monoresistance was 6.23% (95%CI: 4.44–8.02%) and 2.33% (95%CI: 1.00–3.66%), respectively. MDR-TB was detected in 2.64% (95%CI: 1.46–3.82%) of newly diagnosed cases and 11.54% (95%CI: 2.12–20.96%) of retreated patients with TB, while the overall pooled prevalence of MDR-TB was 10.78% (95%CI: 4.74–16.83%). CONCLUSIONS : In Ethiopia, anti-tuberculosis drug resistance is widespread. The estimated pooled prevalence of INH and RIF-monoresistance rates were significantly higher in this review than in previous reports. Moreover, MDR-TB in newly diagnosed cases remained strong. Thus, early detection of TB cases, drug-resistance testing, proper and timely treatment, and diligent follow-up of TB patients all contribute to the improvement of DR-TB management and prevention. Besides this, we urge that a robust, routine laboratory-based drug-resistance surveillance system be implemented in the country.https://www.mdpi.com/journal/tropicalmedam2023Medical Microbiolog

Assessment of barriers to the implementation of community-based data verification and immunization data discrepancies between health facilities and the community in Tach Gayint district, Northwest Ethiopia.

AbstractIntroduction: While community-based data verification (CBDV) is critical for effective implementation of immunization programs, limited evidence exists detailing its implementation at the local levels thereby threatening data quality which is used to guide decision making.Aim: To explore the barriers to proper implementation of CBDV and determine the level of immunization data discrepancy between the health facilities and community levels in Tach Gayint district of Northwest Ethiopia.Methods: A Mixed methods approach was used. Interviews with twenty-six key informants’ (health experts) in immunization data, and an additional a sample of 324 infants were recruited. All health centers in the district (6) and 2 health posts from each health center (12 in total) were selected using Simple Random Sampling. Key informant interviewees were purposely included from all health facilities. For quantitative data, samples of infants were proportionally allocated for each health facility as per their DPT/Pentavalent-1 vaccine report. Thematic analysis of the qualitative data and descriptive quantitative analysis were performed using statistical software open-code v-4.02 and STATA v14.1 respectively.Results: Only few health facilities implemented CBDV and consider it to be their routine task. Also, barriers to effective implementation of CBDV such as lack of prioritization, poor capacity among health staff, and conflicting job roles were identified. The highest immunization data discrepancy among community and health facilities was observed for the measles-one vaccine (35.4%), and the minimum was for DPT/Pentavalent-1 (25.6%).Conclusion: This study revealed a poor level of CBDV implementation and barriers to its effective implementation which include lack of prioritizing CBDV, limited capacity among health staff in performing CBDV, and conflicting job roles among health staff. There was a high level of immunization data discrepancy for measles-1 and DTP/Pentalent-3 vaccines. Based on our finding, we make the following recommendations: building skills among health workers to perform CBDV, enhancing availability and use of standard CBDV tools, ensuring monitoring, and control mechanism, and setting clear definition of roles regarding CBDV, as well as closing the gap in level of immunization data discrepancy could help foster effective implementation of CBDV. [Ethiop. J. Health Dev. 2021; 35(SI-3):09-15]Key words: Immunization, CBDV, Data discrepancy, Data qualit

Assessment of immunization data management practices, facilitators, and barriers to immunization data quality in the health facilities of Tach Gayint district, Northwest Ethiopia

AbstractIntroduction: Although data quality mainly depends upon the proper management of its primary sources, limited studies examined immunization data management practice in Ethiopia.Aim: To explore data management practices, facilitators, and barriers to immunization data quality among front-line immunization experts in the Tach Gayint district of Northwest Ethiopia.Methods: A mixed method study design was applied using document review and key-informant interviews. Quantitative data was collected through document review from 18 health facilities and 26 key-informant interviews, were conducted on experts of immunization for qualitative data. A STATA version 14.1 was used for quantitative data analysis. Qualitative data was transcribed verbatim and translated back into English. Data was coded, reduced, and searched for salient patterns. Thematic analysis was done using open-code version 4.02.Results: The Health Management Information System data recording tools were often lacking. The significant number (83.3%) of health facilities practiced immunization information display, while dissemination at the local level was low. The key informants mentioned that they were responsible for conducting regular Performance Monitoring Team (PMT) and Lots Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) as facilitators. Furthermore, a shortage of recording tools, limited supportive supervision, vertical reporting, impracticality of Lots of Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) at the health posts, poor implementation of Community Health Information System (CHIS), and mass vaccination were barriers identified to immunization data quality.Conclusion: We found that majority of health workers use locally developed tools instead of using the standard data recording and reporting tools. Regular Performance Monitoring Team meetings and Lots Quality Assurance Sampling assessment were found to be facilitators. Furthermore, limited supportive supervision, vertical reporting and poor implementation of Community Health Information System were barriers. Therefore, strengthening the use of standard recording and reporting tools, conducting regular supportive supervision, and implementing routine vaccination services are recommended to improve the data management practice. [Ethiop. J. Health Dev. 2021; 35(SI-3):28-38]Key words: Immunization, Data management practice, Data quality, Information us

Integrated morbidity management for lymphatic filariasis and podoconiosis, Ethiopia

Problem Lymphatic filariasis and podoconiosis are the major causes of tropical lymphoedema in Ethiopia. The diseases require the similar provision of care, but in 2012 the Ethiopian health system did not integrate the morbidity management. Approach To establish health-care services for integrated lymphoedema morbidity management, the health ministry and partners used existing governmental structures. Integrated disease mapping was done in 659 out of the 817 districts, to identify endemic districts. To inform resource allocation, trained health extension workers did integrated disease burden assessments in 56 districts with a high clinical burden. To ensure standard provision of care, the health ministry developed an integrated lymphatic filariasis and podoconiosis morbidity management guideline, containing a treatment algorithm and a defined package of care. Experienced professionals on lymphoedema management trained government-employed health workers on integrated morbidity management. To monitor the integration, an indicator on the number of lymphoedema-treated patients was included in the national health management information system. Local setting In 2014, only 24% (87) of the 363 health facilities surveyed provided lymphatic filariasis services, while 12% (44) provided podoconiosis services. Relevant changes To date, 542 health workers from 53 health centres in 24 districts have been trained on integrated morbidity management. Between July 2013 and June 2016, the national health management information system has recorded 46 487 treated patients from 189 districts. Lessons learnt In Ethiopia, an integrated approach for lymphatic filariasis and podoconiosis morbidity management was feasible. The processes used could be applicable in other settings where these diseases are co-endemic

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Utilization of Reproductive Health Services and Associated Factors among Secondary School Students in Woldia Town, Northeast Ethiopia

Background. Reproductive health is a universal concern but it has special importance for women particularly during the reproductive year. Although policy actions and strategic efforts made reproductive health service uptake of youths in Ethiopia, still its utilization remains low. Adolescence is not quite capable of understanding complex concepts. This makes them vulnerable to sexual exploitation and high-risk sexual behaviors and reproductive health problems. Objective. The aim of this study was to assess the utilization of reproductive health services and associated factors among adolescents in Woldia town secondary schools, Amhara, Ethiopia, 2019. Methods. An institutional-based descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted on 420 secondary school students in Woldia Town from January to June 2019. A self-administered, structured questionnaire was used to collect the data. The samples were distributed proportionally, and participants in each school were selected by the systematic sampling technique. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression was carried out to assess the association between dependent and independent variables. Result. Out of 420 students participated in this study, 270 (64.3%) of the respondents utilize reproductive health service. Residence (AOR = 4.40, 95%CI (1.23, 9.362)), educational status of the partner (AOR = 2.66, 95%CI (2.35, 5.24)), presence of RHS facility in school (AOR = 2.53, 95%CI (1.57, 4.06)), and good knowledge level on reproductive health services (AOR = 1.77, 95%CI (1.14, 2.75)) were significantly associated with reproductive health service utilization. Conclusionand Recommendations. Knowledge of respondents on reproductive health utilization in the study area was found to be low. Students who were from rural families have low utilization of reproductive health services. This low service utilization in these students might be disposed to different reproductive health risks such as sexually transmitted infections, HIV/AIDS, and unwanted pregnancy, which in turn can increase the school dropout rate and have an impact on an individual’s future life. However, students who have good knowledge and were encouraged by their friends have good reproductive health service utilization. Therefore, it needs a great effort and attention of all concerned bodies including parents, school staff, and health professionals to improve service utilization in schools

Foundry Properties of Silica Sand Deposits At Blue Nile Gorge And Jemma River Basin In Northwestern Ethiopia

Abstract — This study investigated foundry properties of silica sand protrusions at two selected sites of Amhara region, Blue Nile gorge and Jemma river basin. The work incorporates both the field and laboratory works. Under the field work ten specific areas under the two sites were surveyed and based on preliminary tests performed four of them were selected for sampling. Cluster sampling in combination with systematic line sampling method was applied in the sample collection procedures. 64 samples at both of the sites were collected and changed to 16 composite samples by blending four samples in the same profile in to one composite sample for the ease of laboratory test. The chemical composition tests were performed at Muger cement factory,Muger. The natural clay content, sieve analysis, green compression strength, dry compression strength, green shear strength and Green permeability tests were performed at the laboratories of Federal Micro and Small Enterprises Development Agency and Akaki Basic Metals Industry, Addis Ababa. Indigenou