Vesicular stomatitis forecasting based on Google Trends

<div><p>Background</p><p>Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is an important viral disease of livestock. The main feature of VS is irregular blisters that occur on the lips, tongue, oral mucosa, hoof crown and nipple. Humans can also be infected with vesicular stomatitis and develop meningitis. This study analyses 2014 American VS outbreaks in order to accurately predict vesicular stomatitis outbreak trends.</p><p>Methods</p><p>American VS outbreaks data were collected from OIE. The data for VS keywords were obtained by inputting 24 disease-related keywords into Google Trends. After calculating the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, it was found that there was a relationship between outbreaks and keywords derived from Google Trends. Finally, the predicted model was constructed based on qualitative classification and quantitative regression.</p><p>Results</p><p>For the regression model, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the predicted outbreaks and actual outbreaks are 0.953 and 0.948, respectively. For the qualitative classification model, we constructed five classification predictive models and chose the best classification predictive model as the result. The results showed, SN (sensitivity), SP (specificity) and ACC (prediction accuracy) values of the best classification predictive model are 78.52%,72.5% and 77.14%, respectively.</p><p>Conclusion</p><p>This study applied Google search data to construct a qualitative classification model and a quantitative regression model. The results show that the method is effective and that these two models obtain more accurate forecast.</p></div

Comparison between the actual American vesicular stomatitis outbreaks and the predicted outbreaks using the stepwise multiple regression model.

<p>Comparison between the actual American vesicular stomatitis outbreaks and the predicted outbreaks using the stepwise multiple regression model.</p

AdaBoost combined with weak classifiers’ model.

<p>AdaBoost combined with weak classifiers’ model.</p

The correlation coefficient value between the outbreaks and Google Trends data.

<p>The correlation coefficient value between the outbreaks and Google Trends data.</p

The trend for outbreaks and Google Trends data from the “vesicular stomatitis” keywords.

<p>(A) Daily Google Trends data. (B) Weekly Google Trends data.</p

Significance test of multiple linear regression equations.

<p>Significance test of multiple linear regression equations.</p

F test and R² of regression model.

<p>F test and R² of regression model.</p

ROC curve of 13 keywords for vesicular stomatitis.

<p>(A) State variable is 0 (number of outbreaks<4) (B) State variable is 1 (number of outbreaks≥4).</p

Significance test of stepwise multiple regression equations.

<p>Significance test of stepwise multiple regression equations.</p

Additional file 1: of DNA sequence-based re-assessment of archived Cronobacter sakazakii strains isolated from dairy products imported into China between 2005 and 2006

Figure S1. Neighbour-joining phylogenetic tree derived from fusA gene sequences (438 bp) for all isolates. (DOC 27 kb