Bayesian spatial analysis of demographic survey data

In this paper we analyze the spatial patterns of the risk of unprotected sexual intercourse for Italian women during their initial experience with sexual intercourse. We rely on geo-referenced survey data from the Italian Fertility and Family Survey, and we use a Bayesian approach relying on weakly informative prior distributions. Our analyses are based on a logistic regression model with a multilevel structure. The spatial pattern uses an intrinsic Gaussian conditional autoregressive (CAR) error component. The complexity of such a model is best handled within a Bayesian framework, and statistical inference is carried out using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. In contrast with previous analyses based on multilevel model, our approach avoids the restrictive assumption of independence between area effects. This model allows us to borrow strength from neighbors in order to obtain estimates for areas that may, on their own, have inadequate sample sizes. We show that substantial geographical variation exists within Italy (Southern Italy has higher risks of unprotected first-time sexual intercourse). The findings are robust with respect to the specification of the prior distribution. We argue that spatial analysis can give useful insights on unmet reproductive health needs.contraceptive use, FFS, hierarchical Bayesian modeling, Italy, Monte Carlo Markov Chain, multilevel statistical models, spatial statistical demography

MAPLES: A general method for the estimation of age profiles from standard demographic surveys (with an application to fertility)

In this paper we present MAPLES (Method for Age Profiles Longitudinal EStimation), a general method for the estimation of age profiles that uses standard micro-level demographic survey data. The aim is to estimate smoothed age profiles and relative risks for time-fixed and time-varying covariates. MAPLES is implemented through a data processing routine and a series of regressions using GAM (Generalized Additive Models). Although the approach has been developed to be applied for living arrangements and fertility, MAPLES may be used for any kind of life event. In fact, it can be applied to every setting in which micro-level data on transitions are available from a large-scale representative survey (e.g., Demographic and Health Surveys; Fertility and Family Surveys; Generations and Gender Surveys). MAPLES is a R software package containing a set of commands that can be easily applied and that may constitute a useful tool box for demographers and social scientists. The package is available in the CRAN library http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/MAPLES.age profiles, fertility and living arrangements, general additive models, smoothing procedure, transition rates

Bayesian spatial analysis of demographic survey data: an application to contraceptive use at first sexual intercourse

In this paper we analyze the spatial patterns of the risk of unprotected sexual intercourse for Italian women during their initial experience with sexual intercourse. We rely on geo-referenced survey data from the Italian Fertility and Family Survey, and we use a Bayesian approach relying on weakly informative prior distributions. Our analyses are based on a logistic regression model with a multilevel structure. The spatial pattern uses an intrinsic Gaussian conditional autoregressive (CAR) error component. The complexity of such a model is best handled within a Bayesian framework, and statistical inference is carried out using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. In contrast with previous analyses based on multilevel model, our approach avoids the restrictive assumption of independence between area effects. This model allows us to borrow strength from neighbors in order to obtain estimates for areas that may, on their own, have inadequate sample sizes. We show that substantial geographical variation exists within Italy (Southern Italy has higher risks of unprotected first-time sexual intercourse), and that the spatial pattern is stable across birth cohorts. The findings are robust with respect to the specification of the prior distribution. We argue that spatial analysis can give useful insights on unmet reproductive health needs. (KEYWORDS: spatial statistical demography, contraceptive use, hierarchical Bayesian modeling, Monte Carlo Markov Chain, multilevel statistical models, Italy, FFS)Italy, contraceptive usage

Structural change and occupational attainment in Monterrey, Mexico

Latin American societies have experienced profound economic transformations in recent years. Yet, little is known about the effects of these transformations on occupational attainment and mobility. We study these effects in Monterrey, the third largest city of Mexico. We analyze two stages of men’s process of occupational attainment: the entry into the labor force and subsequent job shifts. Despite short-term negative effects in the 1980s, Monterrey’s labor market upgrading has continued, facilitating upward mobility. However, class of origin remains an important determinant of attainment, labor-market segmentation imposes barriers to mobility, and wages in non-manual occupations have decreased, thus imposing particular characteristics to occupational attainment.

What Explains Fertility? Evidence from Italian Pension Reforms

Why do people have kids in developed societies? We propose an empirical test of two alternative theories — children as “consumption” vs. “investment” good. We use as a natural experiment the Italian pension reforms of the 90s that introduced a clear discontinuity in the treatment across workers. This policy experiment is particularly well suited, since the “consumption” motive predicts lower future pensions to reduce fertility, while the “old-age security” to increase it. Our empirical analysis identifies a clear and robust positive effect of less generous future pensions on post-reform fertility. These findings are consistent with “old-age security” even for contemporary fertility.old-age security, public pension systems, fertility, altruism

Convergence towards diversity? Cohort dynamics in the transition to adulthood in contemporary Western Europe

This paper addresses the transition to adulthood in developed countries. It reviews the main theories that have been employed in recent years to explain trends in such variables as age ages at leaving home, union formation, first marriage and first birth. The paper then examines the median ages at which women in nine European countries experienced these events and the inter-quartile range within each cohort. The results do not provide unequivocal support for any of the main theories. In conclusion we offer some speculative remarks on what form an alternative theory might take.

Women's education and entry into a first union. A simultaneous-hazard comparative analysis of Central and Eastern Europe

The impact of education on women's union formation has long been studied in empirical analyses based on economic and sociological theories. In particular, the literature has shown that the transition to a first union is triggered by the end of education. Mixed evidence has been found on the impact of the level of education. On the other hand, entry into a union usually triggers the end of education. However, the potential endogeneity of educational enrolment and of the timing of union formation has rarely been assessed. In this paper, we use a simultaneous-hazard two-equation model to assess the mutual impact of careers and their potentially common (unobserved) determinants. More specifically, we focus on a yet unstudied institutional setting, namely Central and Eastern European countries. We use micro-data from Fertility and Family Surveys, which refer mainly to the pre-transition period but allow to shed a first light on changes occurring during the transition. Our results for women show that educational enrolment has a key impact on first union formation, but that also the level of education has a substantive impact as expected by Becker's theory. On the other hand, union formation in almost all countries triggers the end of education. Common unobserved determinants of the two careers have a relatively weak importance.

Spatial profiles in the analysis of event histories: an application to first sexual intercourse in Italy

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Measure and dynamics of marriage squeezes: from baby boom to baby bust in Italy

Significant changes in the propensity to marry, together with baby booms, busts and migrations shape the marriage market. Big changes in the level of fertility may affect, some decades later, the opportunities of marriage of eligible individuals, creating a marriage squeeze. Italy provides an interesting case study because since World War II, it has been characterised by alternate periods of declines and rises of the annual number of births an by their differential patterns between regions. In this paper we study the dynamics of the Italian marriage market (year 1969-1995) by using some indexes proposed by Schoen as well as two additional measures. The result of regional analysis also suggest that marriage squeeze has also been by international migratory movements. The recent and prolonged phase of steep fertility decline in Italy, together with the drop of international movements, suggests the possibility of a perspective increasing disadvantage of men in the marriage market. (AUTHORS)

Work lives amid social change and continuity: occupational trajectories in Monterrey, Mexico

In this paper we use sequence analysis to study the occupational trajectories between the ages 14 and 30 for men in Monterrey, the third largest city of Mexico. We build typologies of trajectories based on life-history data and then explore changes in the frequency of these ´typical´ trajectories over time as well as differences across socioeconomic groups. Cohort trends reveal more continuities than changes in occupational trajectories, despite the structural changes experienced by the city in the last two decades. Career patterns are closely related to family origins and educational attainment, thus suggesting the continuing importance of both ascribed and attained characteristics on occupational outcomes.