Magmatic Processes in the East African Rift System: Insights from a 2015-2020 Sentinel-1 InSAR survey

Abstract The East African Rift System (EARS) is composed of around 78 Holocene volcanoes, but relatively little is known about their past and present activity. This lack of information makes it difficult to understand their eruptive cycles, their roles in continental rifting and the threat they pose to the population. Although previous InSAR surveys (1990–2010) showed sign of unrest, the information about the dynamics of the magmatic systems remained limited by low temporal resolution and gaps in the data set. The Sentinel‐1 SAR mission provides open‐access acquisitions every 12 days in Africa and has the potential to produce long‐duration time series for studying volcanic ground deformation at regional scale. Here, we use Sentinel‐1 data to provide InSAR time series along the EARS for the period 2015–2020. We detect 18 ground deformation signals on 14 volcanoes, of which six are located in Afar, six in the Main Ethiopian Rift, and two in the Kenya‐Tanzanian Rift. We detected new episodes of uplift at Tullu Moje (2016) and Suswa (mid‐2018), and enigmatic long‐lived subsidence signals at Gada Ale and Kone. Subsidence signals are related to a variety of mechanisms including the posteruptive evolution of magma reservoirs (e.g., Alu‐Dallafila), the compaction of lava flows (e.g., Nabro), and pore‐pressure changes related to geothermal or hydrothermal activity (e.g., Olkaria). Our results show that ∼20% of the Holocene volcanoes in the EARS deformed during this 5‐years snapshot and demonstrate the diversity of processes occurring

Relative Afterslip Moment Does Not Correlate With Aftershock Productivity:Implications for the Relationship Between Afterslip and Aftershocks

Aseismic afterslip has been proposed to drive aftershock sequences. Both afterslip moment and aftershock number broadly increase with mainshock size, but can vary beyond this scaling. We examine whether relative afterslip moment (afterslip moment/mainshock moment) correlates with several key aftershock sequence characteristics, including aftershock number and cumulative moment (both absolute and relative to mainshock size), seismicity rate change, b‐value, and Omori decay exponent. We select M w ≥ 4.5 aftershocks for 41 tectonically varied mainshocks with available afterslip models. Against expectation, relative afterslip moment does not correlate with tested aftershock characteristics or background seismicity rate. Furthermore, adding afterslip moment to mainshock moment does not improve predictions of aftershock number. Our findings place useful empirical constraints on the link between afterslip and potentially damaging M w ≥ 4.5 aftershocks and raise questions regarding the role afterslip plays in aftershock generation

The role of pre-eruptive gas segregation on co-eruptive deformation and SO2 emissions

The presence of exsolved gas bubbles influences measurements of both volcanic surface deformation and SO2 emissions. In a closed-system, exsolved volatiles remain within the melt but in an open-system, the decoupled gas phase can either outgas or accumulate, leading to large variations magmatic gas fraction. Here we investigate the role of gas volume fraction and gas segregation processes on magma properties and co-eruptive monitoring data. First we use thermodynamic models of gas exsolution to model gas volume fraction and magma compressibility, and use these to calculate SO2 emissions and co-eruptive volume change. We find that volume change is equally sensitive to magma compressibility and chamber compressibility over realistic parameters ranges, and both must be considered when interpreting surface deformation data. Reservoir depth and magma composition are the dominant controls on gas volume fraction, but the initial content of H2O and S have strong influences on volume change and SO2 emissions, respectively. Pre-eruptive gas accumulation produces increased SO2 emissions and muted co-eruptive deformation, while degassing has the opposite effect. We then compare our models to a compilation of data from 20 recent eruptions where measurements of volume change, SO2 emissions and erupted volume are available. To the first order, shallow reservoirs produce smaller volume changes per volume erupted and silica-poor magmas yield greater co-eruptive volume changes than silica-rich systems, consistent with closed system degassing.  Co-eruptive degassing causes high SO2 emissions during effusive eruptions. Comparison between model predictions and observations suggests that all magmatic systems experience a certain degree of outgassing prior to an eruption. Our findings are consistent with current conceptual models of transcrustal magmatic systems consisting of heterogeneous mixtures of gas and melt and have important implications for the interpretation of surface deformation and SO2 emission signals at all stages of the eruption cycle.

Geodetic constraints on cratonic microplates and broad strain during rifting of thick Southern African lithosphere

Southern Africa is typically considered to belong to a single tectonic plate, Nubia, despite active faulting along the southwestern branch of the East African Rift System. We analyze regional Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements, and find that the “San” microplate, situated south of the southwestern branch of the East African Rift, is statistically distinct from Nubia, with 0.4–0.7 mm/yr of extension across the boundary. Adding nine new campaign GNSS sites, we show that the extension rate across the southern Malawi Rift is 2.2 ± 0.3 mm/yr, with 75% of the relative velocity occurring over 890 km, despite the surface expression of faulting being <150 km wide. Thus, for the first time, we use geodetic measurements to describe the accommodation of strain in broad zones between Archean cratons in southern Africa's thick continental lithosphere

A systems-based approach to parameterise seismic hazard in regions with little historical or instrumental seismicity:Active fault and seismogenic source databases for southern Malawi

Seismic hazard is commonly characterised using instrumental seismic records. However, these records are short relative to earthquake repeat times, and extrapolating to estimate seismic hazard can misrepresent the probable location, magnitude, and frequency of future large earthquakes. Although paleoseismology can address this challenge, this approach requires certain geomorphic setting, is resource intensive, and can carry large inherent uncertainties. Here, we outline how fault slip rates and recurrence intervals can be estimated by combining fault geometry, earthquake-scaling relationships, geodetically derived regional strain rates, and geological constraints of regional strain distribution. We apply this approach to southern Malawi, near the southern end of the East African Rift, and where, although no on-fault slip rate measurements exist, there are constraints on strain partitioning between border and intra-basin faults. This has led to the development of the South Malawi Active Fault Database (SMAFD), a geographical database of 23 active fault traces, and the South Malawi Seismogenic Source Database (SMSSD), in which we apply our systems-based approach to estimate earthquake magnitudes and recurrence intervals for the faults compiled in the SMAFD. We estimate earthquake magnitudes of MW 5.4–7.2 for individual fault sections in the SMSSD and MW 5.6–7.8 for whole-fault ruptures. However, low fault slip rates (intermediate estimates ∼ 0.05–0.8 mm/yr) imply long recurrence intervals between events: 102–105 years for border faults and 103–106 years for intra-basin faults. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the large range of these estimates can best be reduced with improved geodetic constraints in southern Malawi. The SMAFD and SMSSD provide a framework for using geological and geodetic information to characterise seismic hazard in regions with few on-fault slip rate measurements, and they could be adapted for use elsewhere in the East African Rift and globally