Forecasting Industry-Level CPI and PPI Inflation: Does Exchange Rate Pass-Through Matter?

In this paper, we examine whether industry-level forecasts of CPI and PPI inflation can be improved using the ``exchange rate pass-through" effect, that is, when one accounts for the variability of the exchange rate and import prices. An exchange rate depreciation leading to a higher level of pass-through to import prices implies greater expenditure switching, which should be manifested, possibly with a lag, in both producer and consumer prices. We build a forecasting model based on a two or three equation system involving CPI and PPI inflation where the effects of the exchange rate and import prices are taken into account. This setup also incorporates their dynamics, lagged correlations and appropriate restrictions suggested by the theory. We compare the performance of this model with a variety of unrestricted univariate and multivariate time series models, as well as with a model that, in addition, includes standard control variables for inflation, like interest rates and unemployment. Our results indicate that improvements on the forecast accuracy can be effected when one takes into account the possible pass-through effects of exchange rates and import prices on CPI and PPI inflation.Forecasting, Vector Autoregression, Non-linear Models, Inflation, Exchange Rates, Pass-Through Effect

Improving forecasting performance by window and model averaging

This study presents extensive results on the benefits of rolling window and model averaging. Building on the recent work on rolling window averaging by Pesaran et al (2010, 2009) and on exchange rate forecasting by Molodtsova and Papell (2009), we explore whether rolling window averaging can be considered beneficial on a priori grounds. We investigate whether rolling window averaging can improve the performance of model averaging, especially when ‘simpler’ models are used. The analysis provides strong support for rolling window averaging, outperforming the best window forecasts more than 50% of the time across all rolling windows. Furthermore, rolling window averaging smoothes out the forecast path, improves robustness, and minimizes the pitfalls associated with potential structural breaks.Exchange rate forecasting, inflation forecasting, output growth forecasting, rolling window, model averaging, short horizon, robustness.

Evaporation of alpha particles from 31^31P nucleus

The energy spectra of alpha particles have been measured in coincidence with the evaporation residues for the decay of the compound nucleus $^31$P produced in the reaction $^19$F (96 MeV) + $^12$C. The data have been compared with the predictions of the statistical model code CASCADE. It has been observed that significant deformation effect in the compound nucleus need to be considered in order to explain the shape of the evaporated alpha particle energy spectra.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, revtex, epsf styl

Study of Dissipative Collisions of 20^{20}Ne (∼\sim7-11 MeV/nucleon) + 27^{27}Al

The inclusive energy distributions of complex fragments (3 $\leq$Z $\leq$ 9) emitted in the reactions $^{20}$Ne (145, 158, 200, 218 MeV) + $^{27}$Al have been measured in the angular range 10$^{o}$ - 50$^{o}$. The fusion-fission and the deep-inelastic components of the fragment yield have been extracted using multiple Gaussian functions from the experimental fragment energy spectra. The elemental yields of the fusion-fission component have been found to be fairly well exlained in the framework of standard statistical model. It is found that there is strong competition between the fusion-fission and the deep-inelastic processes at these energies. The time scale of the deep-inelastic process was estimated to be typically in the range of $\sim$ 10$^{-21}$ - 10$^{-22}$ sec., and it was found to decrease with increasing fragment mass. The angular momentum dissipations in fully energy damped deep-inelastic process have been estimated from the average energies of the deep-inelastic components of the fragment energy spectra. It has been found that, the estimated angular momentum dissipations, for lighter fragments in particular, are more than those predicted by the empirical sticking limit.Comment: 16 pages, 9 figure

Multiple membrane cavity optomechanics

We investigate theoretically the extension of cavity optomechanics to multiple membrane systems. We describe such a system in terms of the coupling of the collective normal modes of the membrane array to the light fields. We show these modes can be optically addressed individually and be cooled, trapped and characterized, e.g. via quantum nondemolition measurements. Analogies between this system and a linear chain of trapped ions or dipolar molecules imply the possibility of related applications in the quantum regime.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figure

Classical dynamics of the optomechanical modes of a Bose-Einstein condensate in a ring cavity

We consider a cavity optomechanical system consisting of a Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) interacting with two counterpropagating traveling-wave modes in an optical ring cavity. In contrast to the more familiar case where the condensate is driven by the standing-wave field of a high-$Q$ Fabry-P{\'e}rot cavity we find that both symmetric and antisymmetric collective density side modes of the BEC are mechanically excited by the light field. In the semiclassical, mean-field limit where the light field and the zero-momentum mode of the condensate are treated classically the system is found to exhibit a rich multistable behavior, including the appearance of isolated branches of solutions (isolas). We also present examples of the dynamics of the system as input parameters such as the frequency of the driving lasers are varied