Report 29: The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on all-cause attendances to emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study

The health care system in England has been highly affected by the surge in demand due to patients afflicted by COVID-19. Yet the impact of the pandemic on the care seeking behaviour of patients and thus on Emergency department (ED) services is unknown, especially for non-COVID-19 related emergencies. In this report, we aimed to assess how the reorganisation of hospital care and admission policies to respond to the COVID-19 epidemic affected ED attendances and emergency hospital admissions. We performed time-series analyses of present year vs historic (2015-2019) trends of ED attendances between March 12 and May 31 at two large central London hospitals part of Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust (ICHNT) and compared these to regional and national trends. Historic attendances data to ICHNT and publicly available NHS situation reports were used to calibrate time series auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting models. We thus predicted the (conterfactual) expected number of ED attendances between March 12 (when the first public health measure leading to lock-down started in England) to May 31, 2020 (when the analysis was censored) at ICHNT, at all acute London Trusts and nationally. The forecasted trends were compared to observed data for the same periods of time. Lastly, we analysed the trends at ICHNT disaggregating by mode of arrival, distance from postcode of patient residence to hospital and primary diagnosis amongst those that were subsequently admitted to hospital and compared these data to an average for the same period of time in the years 2015 to 2019. During the study period (January 1 to May 31, 2020) there was an overall decrease in ED attendances of 35% at ICHNT, of 50% across all London NHS Trusts and 53% nationally. For ICHNT, the decrease in attendances was mainly amongst those aged younger than 65 and those arriving by their own means (e.g. personal or public transport). Increasing distance (km) from postcode of residence to hospital was a significant predictor of reduced attendances, which could not be explained by weighted (for population numbers) mean index of multiple deprivation. Non-COVID emergency admissions to hospital after March 12 fell by 48% at ICHNT compared to previous years. This was seen across all disease areas, including acute coronary syndromes, stroke and cancer-related emergencies. The overall non-COVID-19 hospitalisation mortality risk did not differ (RR 1.13, 95%CI 0.94-1.37, p=0.19), also in comparison to previous years. Our findings suggest emergency healthcare seeking to hospitals drastically changed amongst the population within the catchment area of ICHNT. This trend was echoed regionally and nationally, suggesting those suffering a medical emergency may not have attended other (i.e. closer-to-home) hospitals. Furthermore, our time-series analyses showed that, even after COVID-19 cases and deaths decreased (i.e. from early April), non-COVID-19 ED attendances did not increase. The impact of emergency triaging systems (e.g. 111 calls) and alternative (e.g. private hospital, chemist) health services on these trends remains unknown. However, another recent report found increased non-COVID excess deaths in the community, which may be partially explained by people experiencing an emergency and not attending health services at all. Whether those that attended ED services have done so with longer delays from the moment of emergency onset also remains unknown. National analyses into the factors causing reduced attendances to ED services and strategies to revert these negative trends are urgently needed

Did Clinical Trials in Which Erythropoietin Failed to Reduce Acute Myocardial Infarct Size Miss a Narrow Therapeutic Window?

Background: To test a hypothesis that in negative clinical trials of erythropoietin in patients with acute myocardial infarction (MI) the erythropoietin (rhEPO) could be administered outside narrow therapeutic window. Despite overwhelming evidence of cardioprotective properties of rhEPO in animal studies, the outcomes of recently concluded phase II clinical trials have failed to demonstrate the efficacy of rhEPO in patients with acute MI. However, the time between symptoms onset and rhEPO administration in negative clinical trials was much longer that in successful animal experiments. Methodology/Principal Findings: MI was induced in rats either by a permanent ligation of a descending coronary artery or by a 2-hr occlusion followed by a reperfusion. rhEPO, 3000 IU/kg, was administered intraperitoneally at the time of reperfusion, 4 hrs after beginning of reperfusion, or 6 hrs after permanent occlusion. MI size was measured histologically 24 hrs after coronary occlusion. The area of myocardium at risk was similar among groups. The MI size in untreated rats averaged,42 % of area at risk, or,24 % of left ventricle, and was reduced by more than 50 % (p,0.001) in rats treated with rhEPO at the time of reperfusion. The MI size was not affected by treatment administered 4 hrs after reperfusion or 6 hrs after permanent coronary occlusion. Therefore, our study in a rat experimental model of MI demonstrates that rhEPO administered within 2 hrs of a coronary occlusion effectively reduces MI size, but when rhEPO was administered following a delay similar to that encountered in clinical trials, it had no effect on MI size

A Right Atrial Hemangioma Mimicking Thrombus In A Patient With Atrial Arrhythmias

Cardiac hemangiomas are rare tumors, accounting for only 2.8% of all benign primary cardiac tumors and occur at any age. Clinical presentations vary depending on the tumor location (myocardial, endocardial or pericardial). In many cases, this may be an incidental finding. We report the case of a patient with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation who had a right atrial hemangioma detected with transesophageal echocardiography prior to having percutaneous pulmonary vein isolation performe

Proliferation and survival molecules implicated in the inhibition of BRAF pathway in thyroid cancer cells harbouring different genetic mutations

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Thyroid carcinomas show a high prevalence of mutations in the oncogene BRAF which are inversely associated with RAS or RET/PTC oncogenic activation. The possibility of using inhibitors on the BRAF pathway as became an interesting therapeutic approach. In thyroid cancer cells the target molecules, implicated on the cellular effects, mediated by inhibition of BRAF are not well established. In order to fill this lack of knowledge we studied the proliferation and survival pathways and associated molecules induced by BRAF inhibition in thyroid carcinoma cell lines harbouring distinct genetic backgrounds.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Suppression of BRAF pathway in thyroid cancer cell lines (8505C, TPC1 and C643) was achieved using RNA interference (RNAi) for BRAF and the kinase inhibitor, sorafenib. Proliferation analysis was performed by BrdU incorporation and apoptosis was accessed by TUNEL assay. Levels of protein expression were analysed by western-blot.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Both BRAF RNAi and sorafenib inhibited proliferation in all the cell lines independently of the genetic background, mostly in cells with BRAF^V600Emutation. In BRAF^V600Emutated cells inhibition of BRAF pathway lead to a decrease in ERK1/2 phosphorylation and cyclin D1 levels and an increase in p27^Kip1. Specific inhibition of BRAF by RNAi in cells with BRAF^V600Emutation had no effect on apoptosis. In the case of sorafenib treatment, cells harbouring BRAF^V600Emutation showed increase levels of apoptosis due to a balance of the anti-apoptotic proteins Mcl-1 and Bcl-2.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results in thyroid cancer cells, namely those harbouring BRAF^V600Emutation showed that BRAF signalling pathway provides important proliferation signals. We have shown that in thyroid cancer cells sorafenib induces apoptosis by affecting Mcl-1 and Bcl-2 in BRAF^V600Emutated cells which was independent of BRAF. These results suggest that sorafenib may prove useful in the treatment of thyroid carcinomas, particularly those refractory to conventional treatment and harbouring BRAF mutations.</p

Aurora kinase A drives the evolution of resistance to third-generation EGFR inhibitors in lung cancer.

Although targeted therapies often elicit profound initial patient responses, these effects are transient due to residual disease leading to acquired resistance. How tumors transition between drug responsiveness, tolerance and resistance, especially in the absence of preexisting subclones, remains unclear. In epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-mutant lung adenocarcinoma cells, we demonstrate that residual disease and acquired resistance in response to EGFR inhibitors requires Aurora kinase A (AURKA) activity. Nongenetic resistance through the activation of AURKA by its coactivator TPX2 emerges in response to chronic EGFR inhibition where it mitigates drug-induced apoptosis. Aurora kinase inhibitors suppress this adaptive survival program, increasing the magnitude and duration of EGFR inhibitor response in preclinical models. Treatment-induced activation of AURKA is associated with resistance to EGFR inhibitors in vitro, in vivo and in most individuals with EGFR-mutant lung adenocarcinoma. These findings delineate a molecular path whereby drug resistance emerges from drug-tolerant cells and unveils a synthetic lethal strategy for enhancing responses to EGFR inhibitors by suppressing AURKA-driven residual disease and acquired resistance

Accounting for the mortality benefit of drug-eluting stents in percutaneous coronary intervention: a comparison of methods in a retrospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Drug-eluting stents (DES) reduce rates of restenosis compared with bare metal stents (BMS). A number of observational studies have also found lower rates of mortality and non-fatal myocardial infarction with DES compared with BMS, findings not observed in randomized clinical trials. In order to explore reasons for this discrepancy, we compared outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with DES or BMS by multiple statistical methods.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We compared short-term rates of all-cause mortality and myocardial infarction for patients undergoing PCI with DES or BMS using propensity-score adjustment, propensity-score matching, and a stent-era comparison in a large, integrated health system between 1998 and 2007. For the propensity-score adjustment and stent era comparisons, we used multivariable logistic regression to assess the association of stent type with outcomes. We used McNemar's Chi-square test to compare outcomes for propensity-score matching.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Between 1998 and 2007, 35,438 PCIs with stenting were performed among health plan members (53.9% DES and 46.1% BMS). After propensity-score adjustment, DES was associated with significantly lower rates of death at 30 days (OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.39 - 0.63, <it>P </it>< 0.001) and one year (OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.49 - 0.68, <it>P </it>< 0.001), and a lower rate of myocardial infarction at one year (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.59 - 0.87, <it>P </it>< 0.001). Thirty day and one year mortality were also lower with DES after propensity-score matching. However, a stent era comparison, which eliminates potential confounding by indication, showed no difference in death or myocardial infarction for DES and BMS, similar to results from randomized trials.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Although propensity-score methods suggested a mortality benefit with DES, consistent with prior observational studies, a stent era comparison failed to support this conclusion. Unobserved factors influencing stent selection in observational studies likely account for the observed mortality benefit of DES not seen in randomized clinical trials.</p

The Structural Features of Trask That Mediate Its Anti-Adhesive Functions

Trask/CDCP1 is a transmembrane protein with a large extracellular and small intracellular domains. The intracellular domain (ICD) undergoes tyrosine phosphorylation by Src kinases during anchorage loss and, when phosphorylated, Trask functions to inhibit cell adhesion. The extracellular domain (ECD) undergoes proteolytic cleavage by serine proteases, although the functional significance of this remains unknown. There is conflicting evidence regarding whether it functions to signal the phosphorylation of the ICD. To better define the structural determinants that mediate the anti-adhesive functions of Trask, we generated a series of deletion mutants of Trask and expressed them in tet-inducible cell models to define the structural elements involved in cell adhesion signaling. We find that the ECD is dispensable for the phosphorylation of the ICD or for the inhibition of cell adhesion. The anti-adhesive functions of Trask are entirely embodied within its ICD and are specifically due to tyrosine phosphorylation of the ICD as this function is completely lost in a phosphorylation-defective tyrosine-phenylalanine mutant. Both full length and cleaved ECDs are fully capable of phosphorylation and undergo phosphorylation during anchorage loss and cleavage is not an upstream signal for ICD phosphorylation. These data establish that the anti-adhesive functions of Trask are mediated entirely through its tyrosine phosphorylation. It remains to be defined what role, if any, the Trask ECD plays in its adhesion functions

WNT signaling regulates self-renewal and differentiation of prostate cancer cells with stem cell characteristics

Prostate cancer cells with stem cell characteristics were identified in human prostate cancer cell lines by their ability to form from single cells self-renewing prostaspheres in non-adherent cultures. Prostaspheres exhibited heterogeneous expression of proliferation, differentiation and stem cell-associated makers CD44, ABCG2 and CD133. Treatment with WNT inhibitors reduced both prostasphere size and self-renewal. In contrast, addition of Wnt3a caused increased prostasphere size and self-renewal, which was associated with a significant increase in nuclear Β-catenin, keratin 18, CD133 and CD44 expression. As a high proportion of LNCaP and C4-2B cancer cells express androgen receptor we determined the effect of the androgen receptor antagonist bicalutamide. Androgen receptor inhibition reduced prostasphere size and expression of PSA, but did not inhibit prostasphere formation. These effects are consistent with the androgen-independent self-renewal of cells with stem cell characteristics and the androgen-dependent proliferation of transit amplifying cells. As the canonical WNT signaling effector Β-catenin can also associate with the androgen receptor, we propose a model for tumour propagation involving a balance between WNT and androgen receptor activity. That would affect the self-renewal of a cancer cell with stem cell characteristics and drive transit amplifying cell proliferation and differentiation. In conclusion, we provide evidence that WNT activity regulates the self-renewal of prostate cancer cells with stem cell characteristics independently of androgen receptor activity. Inhibition of WNT signaling therefore has the potential to reduce the self-renewal of prostate cancer cells with stem cell characteristics and improve the therapeutic outcome.Peer reviewe

Drug-Eluting Stents in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease: A Prospective Registry Study

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is strongly associated with adverse outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). There are limited data on the effectiveness of drug-eluting stents (DES) in patients with CKD. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Of 3,752 consecutive patients enrolled in the Guthrie PCI Registry between 2001 and 2006, 436 patients with CKD - defined as a creatinine clearance <60 mL/min - were included in this study. Patients who received DES were compared to those who received bare metal stents (BMS). Patients were followed for a mean duration of 3 years after the index PCI to determine the prognostic impact of stent type. Study end-points were all-cause death, myocardial infarction (MI), target vessel revascularization (TVR), stent thrombosis (ST) and the composite of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), defined as death, MI or TVR. Patients receiving DES in our study, by virtue of physician selection, had more stable coronary artery disease and had lower baseline risk of thrombotic or restenotic events. Kaplan-Meier estimates of proportions of patients reaching the end-points were significantly lower for DES vs. BMS for all-cause death (p = 0.0008), TVR (p = 0.029) and MACE (p = 0.0015), but not MI (p = 0.945) or ST (p = 0.88). Multivariable analysis with propensity adjustment demonstrated that DES implantation was an independent predictor of lower rates of all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR] 0.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.25-0.92), TVR (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.27-0.94) and MACE (HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.41-0.94). CONCLUSIONS: In a contemporary PCI registry, selective use of DES in patients with CKD was safe and effective in the long term, with lower risk of all-cause death, TVR and MACE and similar risk of MI and ST as compared with BMS. The mortality benefit may be a result of selection bias and residual confounding, or represent a true finding; a hypothesis that warrants clarification by randomized clinical trials