Terms of trade, capital accumulation and the macro-economy in a developing country: a theoretical analysis

This paper attempts to explain the terms of trade adjustment and the process of capital accumulation in a monetary model of sectoral interlinkage under rational expectation. The paper utilises a very standard dual economy framework in which industry and agriculture are two distinct sectors of production. Agriculture production is supply constrained. This may arise due to fixed endowment of land, weather condition etc. On the other hand, employment and output in the industrial sector are determined on the basis of profit maximisation in the presence of wage indexation. The asset structure of the economy includes the stock of primary commodities as one form of asset holding. Since the stock of agricultural commodities is one of the financial assets, its demand is subject to speculation which may entail fluctuating agricultural prices. Many factors have effects on fluctuating agricultural prices. These include monetary shock, parametric changes in agricultural production, changes in government expenditure etc. In this paper we discuss the comparative static effects of parametric changes of these factors. The paper shows that the short run and long run effects of any particular shock are quite different, not only quantitatively, but also qualitatively. Accordingly, the policy message of the paper is that the short run response may not be a reliable guide to the design of policy

Financial and Real Sector Linkages: Evidence from India

Financial and real sector linkages have been the subject of interest among economists since the global financial crisis. This paper investigates the cointegrating relationship and the causality between the financial and real sector in India for the period 1982 to 2015 using time series annual data. The financial sector is proxied by liquid liabilities, domestic credit given by financial sector and market capitalisation as percentages of GDP. The real sector is proxied by real GDP with net capital formation and real interest rate used as control variables. The Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillips Perron tests show that all variables are stationary at first differences. The Johansen cointegration test reports cointegrating relations between financial and real sector when domestic credit given by financial sector and liquid liabilities as percentages of GDP represent the financial sector. However, the error correction model gives the speed of adjustment between the financial and real sector only when domestic credit as a percentage of GDP is used as an indicator of financial sector. The Granger test reveals that there is a unidirectional causality from real to financial sector when domestic credit and liquid liabilities as percentages of GDP represent the financial sector. We find evidence of a demand following hypothesis or growth driven finance hypothesis. These results have significant inferences for economists and policy makers.JEL classification: G00, E00, E44, C5

Measurement of Production Efficiency: A Case of Indian Agricultural Production in Post Reforms Period

The paper examines the production efficiency of agricultural system in regions of India using state level data for the period 1990-91 to 2004-05 and for 2005-06 to 2013-14. Stochastic production frontier model using panel data, as proposed by Battese and Coelli (1995), has been used for estimating the efficiency variations taking an integrated effect model into consideration. State level mean efficiency estimates ranges from 0.9660 to 0.4369 during 1990-91 to 2004-05 and from 0.8648 to 0.4805 for 2005-06 to 2013-14. The statistically significant efficiency variables are rate of rural literacy, rate of rural technical education, total state road length per unit of area and share of agricultural NSDP to state NSDP and the major inputs were net irrigated area and consumption of pesticides for the period 1990-91 to 2004-05. For the period 2005-06 to 2013-14, institutional credit, consumption of fertilizers and consumption of pesticides shares a significant and positive relation with the level of production. The total state road length per unit of area and share of agricultural NSDP to state NSDP are found to reduce inefficiency in agricultural production

Exchange Rate, Output and Macroeconomic Policy: A Structuralist Approach

Current account imbalance and concomitant macroeconomic instability in emerging market economies have been major issues of recent macroeconomic modelling. This paper addresses these issues by asking how international interdependence has impinged on key macroeconomic variables and policy options. There are three assets: domestic bonds, foreign bonds and money. Domestic bonds and foreign bonds are imperfect substitutes due to presence of risk premium. The striking features of the model include endogenous risk premium and balance sheet effect on investment demand due to exchange rate depreciation. We use a simple open economy structuralist macro model that explains the interaction between current account adjustment and exchange rate dynamics. The balance sheet effect and the risk premium together explain how fiscal expansion or monetary expansion may have both short run and long run contractionary effect on the output level with worsening current account balance in the short run. JEL Classifications: F41, F32, E52, E62 Keywords: Current Account, Exchange Rate, Risk Premium, Balance Sheet Effec

Managing health issues with low wages – A study of female domestic workers

Domestic workers are the most vulnerable group of informal workers who work to supplement their household income. They work for survival, hypothesis being that, women work to make up the difference between subsistence requirements and the total earnings of the family. They lack education or skill, work for long hours and perform specific tasks in several households. They have no leave rules or security benefits as they are excluded from the ambit of labour legislation. They are susceptible to serious health problems that often go unattended. Health issues results in a toll on their consumption expenditure and they are in a constant fear of losing job. The present study is based on a primary survey of 300 domestic workers conducted in the district of South 24Parganas, West Bengal, India for a period of six months from January 16 to June 16. The choice of the district was prompted by the inter-linkage between the growth and expansion of the city of Kolkata in her southern part, existence of a large number of Bangladeshi migrants in South 24 Parganas (Kumar, 2010), evidences of large scale commuting of unorganized workers (Roy, 2003) and the growing informal market where the major source of manual labour comes from the fringes of the district. The study was conducted to understand the socio-demographic characteristics of the workers household, their economic status and method of coping with health issues subject to limited income of the family

Managing health issues with low wages – A study of female domestic workers

Domestic workers are the most vulnerable group of informal workers who work to supplement their household income. They work for survival, hypothesis being that, women work to make up the difference between subsistence requirements and the total earnings of the family. They lack education or skill, work for long hours and perform specific tasks in several households. They have no leave rules or security benefits as they are excluded from the ambit of labour legislation. They are susceptible to serious health problems that often go unattended. Health issues results in a toll on their consumption expenditure and they are in a constant fear of losing job. The present study is based on a primary survey of 300 domestic workers conducted in the district of South 24Parganas, West Bengal, India for a period of six months from January 16 to June 16. The choice of the district was prompted by the inter-linkage between the growth and expansion of the city of Kolkata in her southern part, existence of a large number of Bangladeshi migrants in South 24 Parganas (Kumar, 2010), evidences of large scale commuting of unorganized workers (Roy, 2003) and the growing informal market where the major source of manual labour comes from the fringes of the district. The study was conducted to understand the socio-demographic characteristics of the workers household, their economic status and method of coping with health issues subject to limited income of the family

From Factor Models to Deep Learning: Machine Learning in Reshaping Empirical Asset Pricing

This paper comprehensively reviews the application of machine learning (ML) and AI in finance, specifically in the context of asset pricing. It starts by summarizing the traditional asset pricing models and examining their limitations in capturing the complexities of financial markets. It explores how 1) ML models, including supervised, unsupervised, semi-supervised, and reinforcement learning, provide versatile frameworks to address these complexities, and 2) the incorporation of advanced ML algorithms into traditional financial models enhances return prediction and portfolio optimization. These methods can adapt to changing market dynamics by modeling structural changes and incorporating heterogeneous data sources, such as text and images. In addition, this paper explores challenges in applying ML in asset pricing, addressing the growing demand for explainability in decision-making and mitigating overfitting in complex models. This paper aims to provide insights into novel methodologies showcasing the potential of ML to reshape the future of quantitative finance

Prevalence of multidrug resistance (MDR) and extended spectrum beta-lactamases (ESBLs) among uropathogenic Escherichia coli isolates from female patients in a tertiary care hospital in North India

Background: Urinary tract infection (UTI) is a common bacterial infection in women. It is very common during pregnancy and may present as asymptomatic bacteriuria. Escherichia coli is the primary urinary pathogen accounting for 74-90% of uncomplicated urinary tract infection. The aim of the study was to evaluate in-vitro antibiotic susceptibility among urine isolates of Escherichia coli and prevalence of resistance marker like ESBL producer and MDR status.Methods: Mid-stream urine samples of 205 female patients were processed for culture and sensitivity. All the samples were inoculated on culture media and growth showing significant bacteriuria (>105 cfu/ml) were subjected to identification and antibiotic sensitivity testing on Automated system BD Phoenix 100. ESBL status was detected by the system and MDR status was evaluated by standard guidelines.Results: Out of 205 urine samples, 47 samples (22.93%) showed growth of organism. Out of the 47 growth positive samples, 36 (76.60%) samples showed growth of Escherichia coli and out of which 13 (36.11%) were ESBL producer and 23 (63.89%) were ESBL non-producer. Escherichia coli was mostly isolated from younger age group (21-40 years) (61.11%). Antimicrobial susceptibility showed very good sensitivity towards Amikacin, Tigecycline, Carbapenems, Fosfomycin, Piperacillin-tazobactam and Nitrofurantoin. All the isolates of ESBL producer are MDR (100%) and 21.7% of ESBL non-producer are MDR. There is evidence of transfer of resistance genes for non-β-lactam antibiotics along with ESBL resistance marker.Conclusions: Escherichia coli was the predominant uropathogen isolated from female patients and Amikacin, Nitrofurantoin and Fosfomycin can be used as first line drug