European Money Demand and the Role of UK for its Stability: A Cointegration Analysis

This paper develops equilibrium correction models for money demand of European-wide monetary aggregates based on a multivariate cointegration analysis. It will be shown that whether or not the UK is a member of the monetary union does not affect the empirical stability of area-wide money demand models. However, there is evidence that the properties of a money demand model for an area that previously did not include UK might change just when the UK will join the union. The models' dynamics and the superexogeneity status of output are different in models that do contain UK in their areas compared with those which do not.area-wide European money demand; cointegration; parameter stability; super exogeneity

CrocoPat 2.1 Introduction and Reference Manual

CrocoPat is an efficient, powerful and easy-to-use tool for manipulating relations of arbitrary arity, including directed graphs. This manual provides an introduction to and a reference for CrocoPat and its programming language RML. It includes several application examples, in particular from the analysis of structural models of software systems.Comment: 19 pages + cover, 2 eps figures, uses llncs.cls and cs_techrpt_cover.sty, for downloading the source code, binaries, and RML examples, see http://www.software-systemtechnik.de/CrocoPat

The dynamics of spillover effects during the european sovereign debt turmoil : [draft: october 29, 2012]

In this paper we develop empirical measures for the strength of spillover effects. Modifying and extending the framework by Diebold and Yilmaz (2011), we quantify spillovers between sovereign credit markets and banks in the euro area. Spillovers are estimated recursively from a vector autoregressive model of daily CDS spread changes, with exogenous common factors. We account for interdependencies between sovereign and bank CDS spreads and we derive generalised impulse response functions. Specifically, we assess the systemic effect of an unexpected shock to the creditworthiness of a particular sovereign or country-specific bank index to other sovereign or bank CDSs between October 2009 and July 2012. Channels of transmission from or to sovereigns and banks are aggregated as a Contagion index (CI). This index is disentangled into four components, the average potential spillover: i) amongst sovereigns, ii) amongst banks, iii) from sovereigns to banks, and iv) vice-versa. We highlight the impact of policy-related events along the different components of the contagion index. The systemic contribution of each sovereign or banking group is quantified as the net spillover weight in the total net-spillover measure. Finally, the captured time-varying interdependence between banks and sovereigns emphasises the evolution of their strong nexus

Does it matter how aggregates are measured? The case of monetary transmission mechanisms in the euro area

Beyer, Doornik and Hendry (2000, 2001) show analytically that three out of four aggregation methods yield problematic results when exchange rate shifts induce relative-price changes between individual countries and found the least problematic method to be the variable weight method of growth rates. This papers shows, however, that the latter is sensitive to the choice of base year when based on real GDP weights whereas not on nominal GDP weights. A comparison of aggregates calculated with different methods shows that the differences are tiny in absolute value but highly persistent. To investigate the impact on the cointegration properties in empirical modelling, the monetary model in Coenen & Vega (2001) based on fixed weights was re-estimated using flexible real and nominal GDP weights. In general, the results remained reasonably robust to the choice of aggregation method. JEL Classification: C32, C42, E41Aggregation, cointegration, Eurowide money demand, Flexible weights

Does it Matter How to Measure Aggregates? The Case of Monetary Transmission Mechanisms in the Euro Area

Beyer, Doornik and Hendry (2000, 2001) show analytically that three out of four aggregation methods yield problematic results when exchange rate shifts induce relative-price changes between individual countries and found the least problematic method to be the variable weight method of growth rates. This papers shows, however, that the latter is sensitive to the choice of base year when based on real GDP weights whereas not on nominal GDP weights. A comparison of aggregates calculated with different methods shows that the differences are tiny in absolute value but highly persistent. To investigate the impact on the cointegration properties in empirical modelling, the monetary model in Coenen & Vega (2001) based on fixed weights was re-estimated using flexible real and nominal GDP weights. In general, the results remained reasonably robust to the choice of aggregation method.aggregation; flexible weights; Eurowide money demand; cointegration

On the Indeterminacy of New-Keynesian Economics

We study identification in a class of three-equation monetary models. We argue that these models are typically not identified. For any given exactly identified model, we provide an algorithm that generates a class of equivalent models that have the same reduced form. We use our algorithm to provide four examples of the consequences of lack of identification. In our first two examples we show that it is not possible to tell whether the policy rule or the Phillips curve is forward or backward looking. In example 3 we establish an equivalence between a class of models proposed by Benhabib and Farmer and the standard new-Keynesian model. This result is disturbing since equilibria in the Benhabib-Farmer model are typically indeterminate for a class of policy rules that generate determinate outcomes in the new-Keynesian model. In example 4, we show that there is an equivalence between determinate and indeterminate models even if one knows the structural equations of the modelIndeterminacy, identification

On the indeterminacy of determinacy and indeterminacy

A number of authors have attempted to test whether the U.S. economy is in a determinate or an indeterminate equilibrium. We argue that to answer this question, one must impose a priori restrictions on lag length that cannot be tested. We provide examples of two economic models. Model 1 displays an indeterminate equilibrium, driven by sunspots. Model 2 displays a determinate equilibrium driven by fundamentals. Given assumptions about the shock distribution of model 2, it is possible to find a distribution of sunspot shocks that drive model 1 such that the two models are observationally equivalent. JEL Classification: C39, C62, D51Identification, indeterminacy

On the indeterminacy of new-Keynesian economics

We study identiÞcation in a class of three-equation monetary models. We argue that these models are typically not identiÞed. For any given exactly identiÞed model, we provide an algorithm that generates a class of equivalent models that have the same reduced form. We use our algorithm to provide four examples of the consequences of lack of identiÞcation. In our Þrst two examples we show that it is not possible to tell whether the policy rule or the Phillips curve is forward or backward looking. In example 3 we establish an equivalence between a class of models proposed by Benhabib and Farmer [1] and the standard new-Keynesian model. This result is disturbing since equilibria in the Benhabib-Farmer model are typically indeterminate for a class of policy rules that generate determinate outcomes in the new-Keynesian model. In example 4, we show that there is an equivalence between determinate and indeterminate models even if one knows the structural equations of the model. JEL Classification: C39, C62, D51, E52, E58IdentiÞcation, indeterminacy, new-Keynesian model, transparency

A method to generate structural impulse-responses for measuring the effects of shocks in structural macro models

We develop a technique for analyzing the response dynamics of economic variables to structural shocks in linear rational expectations models. Our work differs fromstandard SVARs since we allow expectations of future variables to enter structural equations. We show how to estimate the variance-covariance matrix of fundamental and non-fundamental shocks and we construct point estimates and confidence bounds for impulse response functions. Our technique can handle both determinate and indeterminate equilibria. We provide an application to U.S. monetary policy under pre and post Volcker monetary policy rules. JEL Classification: C39, C62, D51, E52, E58Identification, indeterminacy, rational expectations models