A formal description of discrete event dynamic systems including perturbation analysis

Simulation;operations research

Factor screening by sequential bifurcation

Simulation;Bifurcation;analyse

Sequential bifurcation for observations with random errors

Simulation;Bifurcation;analyse

Full Screening Another View at One-Factor-at-a-Time Designs

Textbooks on Design Of Experiments invariably start by explaining why one-factor-at-a -time (OAT) is an inferior method. Here we will show that in a model with all interactions a variant of OAT is extremely efficient, provided that we only have non-negative parameters and that there are only a few large parameters. In the extreme, this means that there is one positive parameter. In that case, for m variables, that is, for 2m-1 parameters, the procedure only needs m+2 observations to find. In other examined cases, the proposed method is also very fast.

Bias Estimates in Bootstrapping

Five bootstrapping techniques are examined and compared on their potential for bias reduction. Four of these techniques are from literature, and one is new. An extensive study on a literature example reveals the superiority of the new technique

Finding the Important Factors in Large Discrete-Event Simulation: Sequential Bifurcation and its Applications

This contribution discusses experiments with many factors: the case study includes a simulation model with 92 factors.The experiments are guided by sequential bifurcation.This method is most efficient and effective if the true input/output behavior of the simulation model can be approximated through a first-order polynomial possibly augmented with two-factor interactions.The method is explained and illustrated through three related discrete-event simulation models.These models represent three supply chain configurations, studied for an Ericsson factory in Sweden.After simulating 21 scenarios (factor combinations) each replicated five times to account for noise a shortlist with the 11 most important factors is identified for the biggest of the three simulation models.simulation;bifurcation;supply;Sweden