Consumer confidence indices and stock markets’ meltdowns

Consumer confidence indices (CCIs) are a closely monitored barometer of countries’ economic health and an informative forecasting tool. Using European and US data, we provide a case study of the two recent stock market meltdowns (the post-dotcom bubble correction of 2000–2002 and the 2007–2009 decline at the beginning of the financial crisis) to contribute to the discussion on their appropriateness as proxies for stock markets’ investor sentiment. Investor sentiment should positively covary with stock market movements (DeLong, Shleifer, Summers, and Waldmann 1990); however, we find that the CCI–stock market relationship is not universally positive.We also do not find support for the information effect documented in the previous literature, but identify a more subtle relationship between consumer expectations about future household finances and stock market fluctuations

The relativistic impulse approximation for the exclusive electrodisintegration of the deuteron

The electrodisintegration of the deuteron in the frame of the Bethe-Salpeter approach with a separable kernel of the nucleon-nucleon interaction is considered. This conception keeps the covariance of a description of the process. A comparison of relativistic and nonrelativistic calculations is presented. The factorization of the cross section of the reaction in the impulse approximation is obtained by analytical calculations. It is shown that the photon-neutron interaction plays an important role.Comment: 31 pages, 14 figures, 1 tabl

Exchange Current Corrections to Neutrino--Nucleus Scattering

Relativistic exchange current corrections to neutrino--nucleus cross sections are presented assuming non--vanishing strange quark form factors for the constituent nucleons. For charged current processes the exchange current corrections can lower the impulse approximation results by 10\% while these corrections are found to be sensitive to both the nuclear density and the strange quark axial form factor of the nucleon for neutral current processes. Implications on the LSND experiment to determine this form factor are discussed.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figures, revtex 3.0, full postscript version of the file and figures available at http://www.nikhefk.nikhef.nl/projects/Theory/preprints/preprints.html To appear in Phys. Rev. Lett

Spin Relaxation Resonances Due to the Spin-Axis Interaction in Dense Rubidium and Cesium Vapor

Resonances in the magnetic decoupling curves for the spin relaxation of dense alkali-metal vapors prove that much of the relaxation is due to the spin-axis interaction in triplet dimers. Initial estimates of the spin-axis coupling coefficients for the dimers are 290 MHz for Rb; 2500 MHz for Cs.Comment: submitted to Physical Review Letters, text + 3 figure

A semantical approach to equilibria and rationality

Game theoretic equilibria are mathematical expressions of rationality. Rational agents are used to model not only humans and their software representatives, but also organisms, populations, species and genes, interacting with each other and with the environment. Rational behaviors are achieved not only through conscious reasoning, but also through spontaneous stabilization at equilibrium points. Formal theories of rationality are usually guided by informal intuitions, which are acquired by observing some concrete economic, biological, or network processes. Treating such processes as instances of computation, we reconstruct and refine some basic notions of equilibrium and rationality from the some basic structures of computation. It is, of course, well known that equilibria arise as fixed points; the point is that semantics of computation of fixed points seems to be providing novel methods, algebraic and coalgebraic, for reasoning about them.Comment: 18 pages; Proceedings of CALCO 200

The Belgian PCB and dioxin incident of January-June 1999: exposure data and potential impact on health.

In January 1999, 500 tons of feed contaminated with approximately 50 kg of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and 1 g of dioxins were distributed to animal farms in Belgium, and to a lesser extent in the Netherlands, France, and Germany. This study was based on 20,491 samples collected in the database of the Belgian federal ministries from animal feed, cattle, pork, poultry, eggs, milk, and various fat-containing food items analyzed for their PCB and/or dioxin content. Dioxin measurements showed a clear predominance of polychlorinated dibenzofuran over polychlorinated dibenzodioxin congeners, a dioxin/PCB ratio of approximately 1:50,000 and a PCB fingerprint resembling that of an Aroclor mixture, thus confirming contamination by transformer oil rather than by other environmental sources. In this case the PCBs contribute significantly more to toxic equivalents (TEQ) than dioxins. The respective means +/- SDs and the maximum concentrations of dioxin (expressed in TEQ) and PCB observed per gram of fat in contaminated food were 170.3 +/- 487.7 pg, 2613.4 pg, 240.7 +/- 2036.9 ng, and 51059.0 ng in chicken; 1.9 +/- 0.8 pg, 4.3 pg, 34.2 +/- 30.5 ng, and 314.0 ng in milk; and 32.0 +/- 104.4 pg, 713.3 pg, 392.7 +/- 2883.5 ng, and 46000.0 ng in eggs. Assuming that as a consequence of this incident between 10 and 15 kg PCBs and from 200 to 300 mg dioxins were ingested by 10 million Belgians, the mean intake per kilogram of body weight is calculated to maximally 25,000 ng PCBs and 500 pg international TEQ dioxins. Estimates of the total number of cancers resulting from this incident range between 40 and 8,000. Neurotoxic and behavioral effects in neonates are also to be expected but cannot be quantified. Because food items differed widely (more than 50-fold) in the ratio of PCBs to dioxins, other significant sources of contamination and a high background contamination are likely to contribute substantially to the exposure of the Belgian population

Tensor Analyzing Powers for Quasi-Elastic Electron Scattering from Deuterium

We report on a first measurement of tensor analyzing powers in quasi-elastic electron-deuteron scattering at an average three-momentum transfer of 1.7 fm$^{-1}$. Data sensitive to the spin-dependent nucleon density in the deuteron were obtained for missing momenta up to 150 MeV/$c$ with a tensor polarized $^2$H target internal to an electron storage ring. The data are well described by a calculation that includes the effects of final-state interaction, meson-exchange and isobar currents, and leading-order relativistic contributions.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure