Variation and Uncertainty in Evaporation from a Subtropical Estuary: Florida Bay

Variation and uncertainty in estimated evaporation was determined over time and between two locations in Florida Bay, a subtropical estuary. Meteorological data were collected from September 2001 to August 2002 at Rabbit Key and Butternut Key within the Bay. Evaporation was estimated using both vapor flux and energy budget methods. The results were placed into a long-term context using 33 years of temperature and rainfall data collected in south Florida. Evaporation also was estimated from this long-term data using an empirical formula relating evaporation to clear sky solar radiation and air temperature. Evaporation estimates for the 12-mo period ranged from 144 to 175 cm yr21, depending on location and method, with an average of 163 cm yr21 (6 9%). Monthly values ranged from 9.2 to 18.5 cm, with the highest value observed in May, corresponding with the maximum in measured net radiation. Uncertainty estimates derived from measurement errors in the data were as much as 10%, and were large enough to obscure differences in evaporation between the two sites. Differences among all estimates for any month indicate the overall uncertainty in monthly evaporation, and ranged from 9% to 26%. Over a 33-yr period (1970–2002), estimated annual evaporation from Florida Bay ranged from 148 to 181 cm yr21, with an average of 166 cm yr21. Rainfall was consistently lower in Florida Bay than evaporation, with a long-term average of 106 cm yr21. Rainfall considered alone was uncorrelated with evaporation at both monthly and annual time scales; when the seasonal variation in clear sky radiation was also taken into account both net radiation and evaporation were significantly suppressed in months with high rainfall

Re-calibration of the MAGIC model with data from the National Lake Survey 2019. Results from phase 2

Prosjektleder: Øyvind KasteThe biogeochemical MAGIC model has been applied to the data from the 1995 and 2019 surveys of 1000 Norwegian lakes. The work is a follow-up of a modelling exercise that was done in 2022, with improved input data and with new deposition estimates generated from NILU’s deposition station network. The results indicated that the new deposition data from NILU gave slightly better simulated results (compared to the observed) than those with the deposition estimates from EMEP used in 2022. For future work we recommend that the calibrations to the 2019 data driven by the deposition data from NILU’s deposition station network are used.Norwegian Environment AgencypublishedVersio

Consequences of intensive forest harvesting on the recovery of Swedish lakes from acidification and on critical load exceedances

Across much of the northern hemisphere, lakes are at risk of re-acidification due to incomplete recovery from historical acidification and pressures associated with more intensive forest biomass harvesting. Critical load (CL) calculations aimed at estimating the amount of pollutants an ecosystem can receive without suffering adverse consequences are dependent on these factors. Here, we present a modelling study of the potential effects of intensified forest harvesting on re-acidification of a set of 3239 Swedish lakes based on scenarios with varying intensities of forest biomass harvest and acid deposition. There is some evidence that forestry would have caused a certain level of acidification even if deposition remained at 1860 levels. We show that all plausible harvest scenarios delay recovery due to increased rates of base cation removal. Scenario results were used to estimate critical loads for the entire population of lakes in Sweden. The forestry intensity included in critical load calculations is a political decision. After scaling calculations to the national level, it was apparent that a high but plausible forest harvest intensity would lead to an increase in the area of CL exceedances and that even after significant reductions in forest harvest intensity, there would still be areas with CL exceedances. Our results show that forest harvest intensity and regional environmental change must be carefully considered in future CL calculations

Abstract This study applied the Model of Acidification

of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) to estimate the sensitivity of 66 watersheds in the Southern Blue Ridge Province of the Southern Appalachian Mountains, United States, to changes in atmospheric sulfur (S) deposition. MAGIC predicted that stream acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) values were above 20 μeq/L in all modeled watersheds in 1860. Hindcast simulations suggested that the media

Changes in soil dissolved organic carbon affect reconstructed history and projected future trends in surface water acidification

Preindustrial (1850s) and future (2060) streamwater chemistry of an anthropogenically acidified small catchment was estimated using the MAGIC model for three different scenarios for dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and sources. The highest modeled pH = 5.7 for 1850s as well as for 2060 (pH = 4.4) was simulated given the assumption that streamwater DOC concentration was constant at the 1993 level. A scenario accounting for an increase of DOC as an inverse function of ionic strength (IS) of soilwater and streamwater resulted in much lower preindustrial (pH = 4.9) and future recovery to (pH = 4.1) if the stream riparian zone was assumed to be the only DOC source. If upland soilwater (where significant DOC increase was observed at −5 and −15 cm) was also included, DOC was partly neutralized within the soil and higher preindustrial pH = 5.3 and future pH = 4.2 were estimated. The observed DOC stream flux was 2–4 times higher than the potential carbon production of the riparian zone, implying that this is unlikely to be the sole DOC source. Modeling based on the assumption that stream DOC changes are solely attributable to changes in the riparian zone appears likely to underestimate preindustrial pH

Environmental DNA provides higher resolution assessment of riverine biodiversity and ecosystem function via spatio-temporal nestedness and turnover partitioning.

Rapidly assessing biodiversity is essential for environmental monitoring; however, traditional approaches are limited in the scope needed for most ecological systems. Environmental DNA (eDNA) based assessment offers enhanced scope for assessing biodiversity, while also increasing sampling efficiency and reducing processing time, compared to traditional methods. Here we investigated the effects of landuse and seasonality on headwater community richness and functional diversity, via spatio-temporal dynamics, using both eDNA and traditional sampling. We found that eDNA provided greater resolution in assessing biodiversity dynamics in time and space, compared to traditional sampling. Community richness was seasonally linked, peaking in spring and summer, with temporal turnover having a greater effect on community composition compared to localized nestedness. Overall, our assessment of ecosystem function shows that community formation is driven by regional resource availability, implying regional management requirements should be considered. Our findings show that eDNA based ecological assessment is a powerful, rapid and effective assessment strategy that enables complex spatio-temporal studies of community diversity and ecosystem function, previously infeasible using traditional methods

Assessing recovery from acidification of European surface waters in the year 2010: evaluation of projections made with the MAGIC model in 1995

In 1999 we used the MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments) model to project acidification of acid-sensitive European surface waters in the year 2010, given implementation of the Gothenburg Protocol to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP). A total of 202 sites in 10 regions in Europe were studied. These forecasts can now be compared with measurements for the year 2010, to give a “ground truth” evaluation of the model. The prerequisite for this test is that the actual sulfur and nitrogen deposition decreased from 1995 to 2010 by the same amount as that used to drive the model forecasts; this was largely the case for sulfur, but less so for nitrogen, and the simulated surface water [NO3–] reflected this difference. For most of the sites, predicted surface water recovery from acidification for the year 2010 is very close to the actual recovery observed from measured data, as recovery is predominantly driven by reductions in sulfur deposition. Overall these results show that MAGIC successfully predicts future water chemistry given known changes in acid deposition

Spatial patterns and environmental constraints on ecosystem services at a catchment scale

Improved understanding and prediction of the fundamental environmental controls on ecosystem service supply across the landscape will help to inform decisions made by policy makers and land-water managers. To evaluate this issue for a local catchment case study, we explored metrics and spatial patterns of service supply for water quality regulation, agriculture production, carbon storage, and biodiversity for the Macronutrient Conwy catchment. Methods included using ecosystem models such as LUCI and JULES, integration of national scale field survey datasets, earth observation products and plant trait databases, to produce finely resolved maps of species richness and primary production. Analyses were done with both 1x1 km gridded and subcatchment data. A common single gradient characterised catchment scale ecosystem services supply with agricultural production and carbon storage at opposing ends of the gradient as reported for a national-scale assessment. Species diversity was positively related to production due to the below national average productivity levels in the Conwy combined with the unimodal relationship between biodiversity and productivity at the national scale. In contrast to the national scale assessment, a strong reduction in water quality as production increased was observed in these low productive systems. Various soil variables were tested for their predictive power of ecosystem service supply. Soil carbon, nitrogen, their ratio and soil pH all had double the power of rainfall and altitude, each explaining around 45% of variation but soil pH is proposed as a potential metric for ecosystem service supply potential as it is a simple and practical metric which can be carried out in the field with crowd-sourcing technologies now available. The study emphasises the importance of considering multiple ecosystem services together due to the complexity of covariation at local and national scales, and the benefits of exploiting a wide range of metrics for each service to enhance data robustness