Testing stock market convergence: a non-linear factor approach

This paper applies the Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771–1855, 2007) method to test for convergence in stock returns to an extensive dataset including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as the US between 1973 and 2008. We carry out the analysis on both sectors and individual industries within sectors. As a first step, we use the Stock and Watson (J Am Stat Assoc 93(441):349–358, 1998) procedure to filter the data in order to extract the long-run component of the series; then, following Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771–1855, 2007), we estimate the relative transition parameters. In the case of sectoral indices we find convergence in the middle of the sample period, followed by divergence, and detect four (two large and two small) clusters. The analysis at a disaggregate, industry level again points to convergence in the middle of the sample, and subsequent divergence, but a much larger number of clusters is now found. Splitting the cross-section into two subgroups including euro area countries, the UK and the US respectively, provides evidence of a global convergence/divergence process not obviously influenced by EU policies

Clinical and Imaging Characteristics of Arteriopathy Subtypes in Children with Arterial Ischemic Stroke: Results of the VIPS Study.

Background and purposeChildhood arteriopathies are rare but heterogenous, and difficult to diagnose and classify, especially by nonexperts. We quantified clinical and imaging characteristics associated with childhood arteriopathy subtypes to facilitate their diagnosis and classification in research and clinical settings.Materials and methodsThe Vascular Effects of Infection in Pediatric Stroke (VIPS) study prospectively enrolled 355 children with arterial ischemic stroke (2010-2014). A central team of experts reviewed all data to diagnose childhood arteriopathy and classify subtypes, including arterial dissection and focal cerebral arteriopathy-inflammatory type, which includes transient cerebral arteriopathy, Moyamoya disease, and diffuse/multifocal vasculitis. Only children whose stroke etiology could be conclusively diagnosed were included in these analyses. We constructed logistic regression models to identify characteristics associated with each arteriopathy subtype.ResultsAmong 127 children with definite arteriopathy, the arteriopathy subtype could not be classified in 18 (14%). Moyamoya disease (n = 34) occurred mostly in children younger than 8 years of age; focal cerebral arteriopathy-inflammatory type (n = 25), in children 8-15 years of age; and dissection (n = 26), at all ages. Vertigo at stroke presentation was common in dissection. Dissection affected the cervical arteries, while Moyamoya disease involved the supraclinoid internal carotid arteries. A banded appearance of the M1 segment of the middle cerebral artery was pathognomonic of focal cerebral arteriopathy-inflammatory type but was present in <25% of patients with focal cerebral arteriopathy-inflammatory type; a small lenticulostriate distribution infarct was a more common predictor of focal cerebral arteriopathy-inflammatory type, present in 76%. It remained difficult to distinguish focal cerebral arteriopathy-inflammatory type from intracranial dissection of the anterior circulation. We observed only secondary forms of diffuse/multifocal vasculitis, mostly due to meningitis.ConclusionsChildhood arteriopathy subtypes have some typical features that aid diagnosis. Better imaging methods, including vessel wall imaging, are needed for improved classification of focal cerebral arteriopathy of childhood

Risk prediction models with incomplete data with application to prediction of estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: prospective data from the Nurses' Health Study

Introduction A number of breast cancer risk prediction models have been developed to provide insight into a woman\u27s individual breast cancer risk. Although circulating levels of estradiol in postmenopausal women predict subsequent breast cancer risk, whether the addition of estradiol levels adds significantly to a model\u27s predictive power has not previously been evaluated. Methods Using linear regression, the authors developed an imputed estradiol score using measured estradiol levels (the outcome) and both case status and risk factor data (for example, body mass index) from a nested case-control study conducted within a large prospective cohort study and used multiple imputation methods to develop an overall risk model including both risk factor data from the main cohort and estradiol levels from the nested case-control study. Results The authors evaluated the addition of imputed estradiol level to the previously published Rosner and Colditz log-incidence model for breast cancer risk prediction within the larger Nurses\u27 Health Study cohort. The follow-up was from 1980 to 2000; during this time, 1,559 invasive estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer cases were confirmed. The addition of imputed estradiol levels significantly improved risk prediction; the age-specific concordance statistic increased from 0.635 ± 0.007 to 0.645 ± 0.007 (P \u3c 0.001) after the addition of imputed estradiol. Conclusion Circulating estradiol levels in postmenopausal women appear to add to other lifestyle factors in predicting a woman\u27s individual risk of breast cancer

Subcellular localization of MC4R with ADCY3 at neuronal primary cilia underlies a common pathway for genetic predisposition to obesity.

Most monogenic cases of obesity in humans have been linked to mutations in genes encoding members of the leptin-melanocortin pathway. Specifically, mutations in MC4R, the melanocortin-4 receptor gene, account for 3-5% of all severe obesity cases in humans1-3. Recently, ADCY3 (adenylyl cyclase 3) gene mutations have been implicated in obesity4,5. ADCY3 localizes to the primary cilia of neurons 6 , organelles that function as hubs for select signaling pathways. Mutations that disrupt the functions of primary cilia cause ciliopathies, rare recessive pleiotropic diseases in which obesity is a cardinal manifestation 7 . We demonstrate that MC4R colocalizes with ADCY3 at the primary cilia of a subset of hypothalamic neurons, that obesity-associated MC4R mutations impair ciliary localization and that inhibition of adenylyl cyclase signaling at the primary cilia of these neurons increases body weight. These data suggest that impaired signaling from the primary cilia of MC4R neurons is a common pathway underlying genetic causes of obesity in humans

Successful ecosystem-based management of Antarctic krill should address uncertainties in krill recruitment, behaviour and ecological adaptation

Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, supports a valuable commercial fishery in the Southwest Atlantic, which holds the highest krill densities and is warming rapidly. The krill catch is increasing, is concentrated in a small area, and has shifted seasonally from summer to autumn/winter. The fishery is managed by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources, with the main goal of safeguarding the large populations of krilldependent predators. Here we show that, because of the restricted distribution of successfully spawning krill and high inter-annual variability in their biomass, the risk of direct fishery impacts on the krill stock itself might be higher than previously thought. We show how management benefits could be achieved by incorporating uncertainty surrounding key aspects of krill ecology into management decisions, and how knowledge can be improved in these key areas. This improved information may be supplied, in part, by the fishery itself

Risk factors for ductal and lobular breast cancer: results from the nurses' health study

Introduction Ductal and lobular carcinomas are the two most common types of invasive breast cancer. Whether well-established risk factors are differentially associated with risk on the basis of histologic subtype is not clear. We prospectively investigated the association between a number of hormonal and nonhormonal exposures and risk defined by histologic subtype among 4,655 ductal and 659 lobular cases of postmenopausal breast cancer from the Nurses\u27 Health Study. Methods Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression stratified by histologic subtype and time period was used to examine the association between risk factors and the incidence of ductal and lobular subtypes. For each exposure, we calculated the P value for heterogeneity using a likelihood ratio test comparing models with separate estimates for the two subtypes versus a single estimate across subtypes. Results The associations with age at menarche (P-heterogeneity (het) = 0.03), age at first birth (P-het \u3c 0.001) and postmenopausal hormone use (P-het \u3c 0.001) were more strongly associated with lobular cancers. The associations with age, nulliparity, parity, age at menopause, type of menopause, alcohol intake, adult body mass index (BMI), BMI at age 18, family history of breast cancer and personal history of benign breast disease did not vary by subtype (P-het ≥ 0.08). Results were similar when we restricted the analyses to estrogen receptor-positive and progesterone receptor-positive tumors. Conclusions These data indicate that breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease, and the differential association with a number of risk factors is suggestive of etiologically distinct tumors. Epidemiological analyses should continue to take into account a modifying role of histology

Anticipating pulmonary complications after thoracotomy: the FLAM Score

OBJECTIVE: Pulmonary complications after thoracotomy are the result of progressive changes in the respiratory status of the patient. A multifactorial score (FLAM score) was developed to identify postoperatively patients at higher risk for pulmonary complications at least 24 hours before the clinical diagnosis. METHODS: The FLAM score, created in 2002, is based on 7 parameters (dyspnea, chest X-ray, delivered oxygen, auscultation, cough, quality and quantity of bronchial secretions). To validate the FLAM score, we prospectively calculated scores during the first postoperative week in 300 consecutive patients submitted to posterolateral thoracotomy. RESULTS: During the study, 60 patients (20%) developed pulmonary complications during the postoperative period. The FLAM score progressively increased in complicated patients until the fourth postoperative day (mean 13.5 ± 11.9). FLAM scores in patients with complications were significantly higher (p < 0.05) at least 24 hours before the clinical diagnosis of complication, compared to FLAM scores in uncomplicated patients. ROC curves analysis showed that the cut-off value of FLAM with the best sensitivity and specificity for pulmonary complications was 9 (area under the curve 0.97). Based on the highest FLAM scores recorded, 4 risk classes were identified with increasing incidence of pulmonary complications and mortality. CONCLUSION: Changes in FLAM score were evident at least 24 hours before the clinical diagnosis of pulmonary complications. FLAM score can be used to categorize patients according to risk of respiratory morbidity and mortality and could be a useful tool in the postoperative management of patients undergoing thoracotomy

Neural Network Parameterizations of Electromagnetic Nucleon Form Factors

The electromagnetic nucleon form-factors data are studied with artificial feed forward neural networks. As a result the unbiased model-independent form-factor parametrizations are evaluated together with uncertainties. The Bayesian approach for the neural networks is adapted for chi2 error-like function and applied to the data analysis. The sequence of the feed forward neural networks with one hidden layer of units is considered. The given neural network represents a particular form-factor parametrization. The so-called evidence (the measure of how much the data favor given statistical model) is computed with the Bayesian framework and it is used to determine the best form factor parametrization.Comment: The revised version is divided into 4 sections. The discussion of the prior assumptions is added. The manuscript contains 4 new figures and 2 new tables (32 pages, 15 figures, 2 tables