Sample size considerations using mathematical models: an example with Chlamydia trachomatis infection and its sequelae pelvic inflammatory disease.

BACKGROUND The success of an intervention to prevent the complications of an infection is influenced by the natural history of the infection. Assumptions about the temporal relationship between infection and the development of sequelae can affect the predicted effect size of an intervention and the sample size calculation. This study investigates how a mathematical model can be used to inform sample size calculations for a randomised controlled trial (RCT) using the example of Chlamydia trachomatis infection and pelvic inflammatory disease (PID). METHODS We used a compartmental model to imitate the structure of a published RCT. We considered three different processes for the timing of PID development, in relation to the initial C. trachomatis infection: immediate, constant throughout, or at the end of the infectious period. For each process we assumed that, of all women infected, the same fraction would develop PID in the absence of an intervention. We examined two sets of assumptions used to calculate the sample size in a published RCT that investigated the effect of chlamydia screening on PID incidence. We also investigated the influence of the natural history parameters of chlamydia on the required sample size. RESULTS The assumed event rates and effect sizes used for the sample size calculation implicitly determined the temporal relationship between chlamydia infection and PID in the model. Even small changes in the assumed PID incidence and relative risk (RR) led to considerable differences in the hypothesised mechanism of PID development. The RR and the sample size needed per group also depend on the natural history parameters of chlamydia. CONCLUSIONS Mathematical modelling helps to understand the temporal relationship between an infection and its sequelae and can show how uncertainties about natural history parameters affect sample size calculations when planning a RCT

Serum sclerostin levels in renal cell carcinoma patients with bone metastases

Sclerostin has been proposed as a potent inhibitor of bone formation. Sclerostin antibodies are under clinical development to treat osteoporosis and metastatic bone disease. Serum sclerostin level is elevated in multiple myeloma, an osteolytic malignancy, where it might serve as predictive marker for the use of sclerostin-directed antibodies. As renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients often present with osteolytic metastases, we aimed to investigate serum sclerostin levels in RCC patients. Our study included 53 RCC patients (19 with bone metastases, 25 with visceral metastases and 9 with localized disease) and 53 age- and gender-matched non-osteoporotic controls. Frozen serum samples were subjected to sclerostin quantitative sandwich ELISA. The mean serum sclerostin levels of RCC patients and controls were 45.8 pmol/l and 45.1 pmol/l, respectively (p = 0.86). Analysis of variance showed no difference between the subgroups of RCC patients with regard to visceral or bone metastases or localized disease (p = 0.22). There was no significant association between eGFR (estimated glomerular filtration rate) and serum sclerostin levels in RCC patients (r = 0.05; p = 0.74) and controls (r = 0.06; p = 0.68). Our results indicate that serum sclerostin levels appear not to be a valuable biomarker to assess the occurrence of bone metastases in RCC patients

Impurity and spin effects on the magneto-spectroscopy of a THz-modulated nanostructure

We present a grid-free DFT model appropriate to explore the time evolution of electronic states in a semiconductor nanostructure. The model can be used to investigate both the linear and the nonlinear response of the system to an external short-time perturbation in the THz regime. We use the model to study the effects of impurities on the magneto-spectroscopy of a two-dimensional electron gas in a nanostructure excited by an intense THz radiation. We do observe a reduction in the binding energy of the impurity with increasing excitation strength, and at a finite magnetic field we find a slow onset of collective spin-oscillations that can be made to vanish with a stronger excitation.Comment: LaTeX,10 pages with 11 embedded postscript figure

White Matter Lesion Progression in LADIS Frequency, Clinical Effects, and Sample Size Calculations

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: White matter lesion (WML) progression has been advocated as a surrogate marker in intervention trials on cerebral small vessel disease. We assessed the rate of visually rated WML progression, studied correlations between lesion progression and cognition, and estimated sample sizes for clinical trials with pure WML progression vs combined WML progression-cognitive outcomes. METHODS: Those 394 participants of the Leukoaraiosis and Disability Study (LADIS) study with magnetic resonance imaging scanning at baseline and 3-year follow-up were analyzed. WML progression rating relied on the modified Rotterdam Progression Scale. The Vascular Dementia Assessment Scale global score and a composite score of specific executive function tests assessed longitudinal change in cognition. Sample size calculations were based on the assumption that treatment reduces WML progression by 1 grade on the Rotterdam Progression Scale. RESULTS: WML progression related to deterioration in cognitive functioning. This relationship was less pronounced in subjects with early confluent and confluent lesions. Consequently, studies in which the outcome is cognitive change resulting from treatment effects on lesion progression will need between 1809 subjects per treatment arm when using executive tests and up to 18 853 subjects when using the Vascular Dementia Assessment Scale score. Studies having WML progression as the sole outcome will need only 58 or 70 individuals per treatment arm. CONCLUSIONS: WML progression is an interesting outcome for proof-of-concept studies in cerebral small vessel disease. If cognitive outcome measures are added to protocols, then sample size estimates increase substantially. Our data support the use of an executive test battery rather than the Vascular Dementia Assessment Scale as the primary cognitive outcome measure

Functional classification of TP53 mutations in acute myeloid leukemia

Mutations of the gene occur in a subset of patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and confer an exceedingly adverse prognosis. However, whether different types of mutations exert a uniformly poor outcome has not been investigated yet. Here, we addressed this issue by analyzing data of 1537 patients intensively treated within protocols of the German-Austrian AML study group. We classified mutations depending on their impact on protein structure and according to the evolutionary action (EAp53) score and the relative fitness score (RFS). In 98/1537 (6.4%) patients, 108 mutations were detected. While the discrimination depending on the protein structure and the EAp53 score did not show a survival difference, patients with low-risk and high-risk AML-specific RFS showed a different overall survival (OS; median, 12.9 versus 5.5 months, = 0.017) and event-free survival (EFS; median, 7.3 versus 5.2 months, = 0.054). In multivariable analyses adjusting for age, gender, white blood cell count, cytogenetic risk, type of AML, and TP53 variant allele frequency, these differences were statistically significant for both OS (HR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.15-4.0; = 0.017) and EFS (HR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.06-3.69; = 0.033). We conclude that the AML-specific RFS is of prognostic value in patients with TP53-mutated AML and a useful tool for therapeutic decision-making

Primary care management for optimized antithrombotic treatment [PICANT]: study protocol for a cluster-randomized controlled trial

Background: Antithrombotic treatment is a continuous therapy that is often performed in general practice and requires careful safety management. The aim of this study is to investigate whether a best practice model that applies major elements of case management, including patient education, can improve antithrombotic management in primary health care in terms of reducing major thromboembolic and bleeding events. Methods: This 24-month cluster-randomized trial will be performed in 690 adult patients from 46 practices. The trial intervention will be a complex intervention involving general practitioners, health care assistants and patients with an indication for oral anticoagulation. To assess adherence to medication and symptoms in patients, as well as to detect complications early, health care assistants will be trained in case management and will use the Coagulation-Monitoring-List (Co-MoL) to regularly monitor patients. Patients will receive information (leaflets and a video), treatment monitoring via the Co-MoL and be motivated to perform self-management. Patients in the control group will continue to receive treatment-as-usual from their general practitioners. The primary endpoint is the combined endpoint of all thromboembolic events requiring hospitalization, and all major bleeding complications. Secondary endpoints are mortality, hospitalization, strokes, major bleeding and thromboembolic complications, severe treatment interactions, the number of adverse events, quality of anticoagulation, health-related quality of life and costs. Further secondary objectives will be investigated to explain the mechanism by which the intervention is effective: patients' assessment of chronic illness care, self-reported adherence to medication, general practitioners' and health care assistants' knowledge, patients' knowledge and satisfaction with shared decision making. Practice recruitment is expected to take place between July and December 2012. Recruitment of eligible patients will start in July 2012. Assessment will occur at three time points: baseline (T0), follow-up after 12 (T1) and after 24 months (T2). Discussion: The efficacy and effectiveness of individual elements of the intervention, such as antithrombotic interventions, self-management concepts in orally anticoagulated patients and the methodological tool, case-management, have already been extensively demonstrated. This project foresees the combination of several proven instruments, as a result of which we expect to profit from a reduction in the major complications associated with antithrombotic treatment

Cystic lymph node metastases of squamous cell carcinoma of Waldeyer's ring origin

We analysed in a retrospective study the frequency of cystic lymph node (LN) metastases in neck dissection specimens of 123 patients with primary squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) arising in the palatine tonsils (62 M/14 F), the base of the tongue (38 M/5 F) and the nasopharynx (2 M/2 F). Eighty-two per cent of patients had metastases (64 tonsillar SCC, 33 base of tongue SCC and all four nasopharynx SCC) in 368 LN of a total 2298 sampled LN. Thirty-nine per cent of patients had exclusively solid metastases and 37% of patients had exclusively cystic metastases. A total of 62 patients had some signs of cyst formation in one or more metastatically affected LN (27 with only histological evidence of cyst formation with luminal diameters < 5 mm, 35 with clinically detectable cyst with luminal diameter > 5 mm). Cystic metastases were more common in patients with SCC of the base of the tongue (P = 0.005), while solitary clinically evident cystic metastasis with lumina > 5 mm were found exclusively in tonsillar carcinoma (P = 0.024). In comparison with solid metastases, cyst formation was associated with N-categories (N2b and N3, P = 0.005) in SCC of the base of the tongue origin. No such association was observed for tonsillar SCC (P = 0.65). The primary mechanism of cyst formation was cystic degeneration. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Increased expression of endothelial lipase in symptomatic and unstable carotid plaques

The aim of this study was to evaluate endothelial lipase (EL) protein expression in advanced human carotid artery plaques (HCAP) with regard to plaque (in)stability and the incidence of symptoms. HCAP were collected from 66 patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy (CEA). The degree of plaque (in)stability was estimated by ultrasound and histology. In HCAP sections, EL expression was determined by immunostaining and the intensity was assessed on a semi-quantitative scale (low: <25%, high: >25% positive cells). Monocytes and macrophages in adjacent HCAP sections were stained with a CD163 specific antibody. High EL staining was more prevalent in histologically unstable plaques (in 33.3% of fibrous plaques, 50% of ulcerated non-complicated plaques and 79.2% of ulcerated complicated plaques; χ2 test, p = 0.004) and in the symptomatic group (70.8 vs. 42.9% in the asymptomatic group; χ2 test, p = 0.028). The majority of EL immunostaining was found in those HCAP regions exhibiting a strong CD163 immunostaining. EL in HCAP might be a marker and/or promoter of plaque instability and HCAP-related symptomatology