Energy Demand and Temperature: A Dynamic Panel Analysis

This paper is a first attempt to investigate the effect of climate on the demand for different energy vectors from different final users. The ultimate motivation for this is to arrive to a consistent evaluation of the impact of climate change on key consumption goods and primary factors such as energy vectors. This paper addresses these issues by means of a dynamic panel analysis of the demand for coal, gas, electricity, oil and oil products by residential, commercial and industrial users in OECD and (a few) non-OECD countries. It turns out that temperature has a very different influence on the demand of energy vectors as consumption goods and on their demand as primary factors. In general, residential demand responds negatively to temperature increases, while industrial demand is insensitive to temperature increases. As to the service sector, only electricity demand displays a mildly significant negative elasticity to temperature changes

The Nontradable Share Reform in the Chinese Stock Market

Nontradable shares (NTS) are an unparalleled feature of the ownership structure of Chinese listed companies and represented a major hurdle to domestic financial market development. After some failed attempts, in 2005 the Chinese authorities have launched a structural reform program aiming at eliminating NTS. In this paper, we evaluate the stock price effects of the actual implementation of this reform in 368 firms. The NTS reform generated a statistically significant 8 percent positive abnormal return over the event window, adjusting prices for the compensation requested by tradable shareholders. Results are consistent with the expectation of improved economic fundamentals such as better corporate governance and enhanced liquidity

Participatory Approach in Decision Making Processes for Water Resources Management in the Mediterranean Basin

This paper deals with the comparative analysis of different policy options for water resources management in three south-eastern Mediterranean countries. The applied methodology follows a participatory approach throughout its implementation and is supported by the use of three different software packages dealing with water allocation budget, water quality simulation, and Multi Criteria Analysis, respectively. The paper briefly describes the general objectives of the SMART project and then presents the three local case studies, the valuation objectives and the applied methodology - developed as a general replicable framework suitable for implementation in other decision-making processes. All the steps needed for a correct implementation are therefore described. Following the conceptualisation of the problem, the choice of the appropriate indicators as well as the calculation of their weighting and value functions are detailed. The paper concludes with the results of the Multi Criteria and the related Sensitivity Analyses performed, showing how the different policy responses under consideration can be assessed and furthermore compared through case studies thanks to their relative performances. The adopted methodology was found to be an effective operational approach for bridging scientific modelling and policy making by integrating the model outputs in a conceptual framework that can be understood and utilised by non experts, thus showing concrete potential for participatory decision making

Entry and Exit Strategies in Migration Dynamics

This work is devoted to study the role of combined entry and exit strategies in the migration process. We develop a real option model in which the community of immigrants in the host country is described as a club and the immigrants benefits is a U-shaped function, depending on the dimension of the district. There exist two threshold levels: the first one triggers the migration choice, while the second triggers the return to the country of origin. The theoretical results show that the phenomenon of hysteresis is amplified by the existence of a community both in the entry case and in the exit case. Furthermore, the community can reduce the minimum wage level required to trigger both exit and entry: this fact could explain why in some cases we observe migration inflows with a low wage differential and also with underunemployment. We show also some possible further extensions of the model: in one case we introduce a possible way to select the entrants skills and in another case we show some theoretical implementations to include possible policy shocks in the migrants choice

Technology Transfers and the Clean Development Mechanism in a North-South General Equilibrium Model

This paper analyzes the potential welfare gains of introducing a technology transfer from Annex I to non-Annex I in order to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Our analysis is based on a numerical general equilibrium model for a world economy comprising two regions, North (Annex I) and South (non-Annex I). As our model allows for labor mobility between the formal and informal sectors in the South, we are also able to capture additional aspects of how the transfer influences the Southern economy. In a cooperative equilibrium, a technology transfer from the North to the South is clearly desirable from the perspective of a global social planner, since the welfare gain for the South outweighs the welfare loss for the North. However, if the regions do not cooperate, then the incentives to introduce the technology transfer appear to be relatively weak from the perspective of the North; at least if we allow for Southern abatement in the pre-transfer Nash equilibrium. Finally, by adding the emission reductions associated with the Kyoto agreement to an otherwise uncontrolled market economy, the technology transfer leads to higher welfare in both regions

Marginal Cost versus Average Cost Pricing with Climatic Shocks in Senegal: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model Applied to Water

The model simulates on a 20-year horizon, a first phase of increase in the water resource availability taking into account the supply policies by the Senegalese government and a second phase with hydrologic deficits due to demand evolution (demographic growth). The results show that marginal cost water pricing (with a subsidy ensuring the survival of the water production sector) makes it possible in the long term to absorb the shock of the resource shortage, GDP, investment and welfare increase. Unemployment drops and the sectors of rain rice, market gardening and drinking water distribution grow. In contrast, the current policy of average cost pricing of water leads the long-term economy in a recession with an agricultural production decrease, a strong degradation of welfare and a rise of unemployment. This result questions the basic tariff (average cost) on which block water pricing is based in Senegal

Cost Effectiveness in River Management: Evaluation of Integrated River Policy System in Tidal Ouse

The River Ouse forms a significant part of Humber river system, which drains about one fifth the land area of England and provides the largest fresh water source to the North Sea from UK. The river quality in the tidal river suffered from sag of dissolved oxygen (DO) during last few decades, deteriorated by the effluent discharges. The Environment Agency (EA) proposed to increase the water quality of Ouse by implementing more potent environmental policies. This paper explores the cost effectiveness of water management in the Tidal Ouse through various options by taking into account the variation of assimilative capacity of river water, both in static and dynamic scope of time. Reduction in both effluent discharges and water abstraction were considered along side with choice of effluent discharge location. Different instruments of environmental policy, the emission tax-subsidy (ETS) scheme and tradable pollution permits (TPP) systems were compared with the direct quantitative control approach. This paper at the last illustrated an empirical example to reach a particular water quality target in the tidal Ouse at the least cost, through a solution of constrained optimisation problem. The results suggested significant improvement in the water quality with less cost than current that will fail the target in low flow year

A Future for the Dead Sea Basin: Water Culture among Israelis, Palestinians and Jordanians

The Dead Sea basin plays a major role for regional economic development (industry, tourism and agriculture) in the Middle East. This potential is threatened by the steady disappearance of the Dead Sea. Since around 1930 the water level of the Dead Sea has fallen by about 25 m, about half of this alone in the last 20 years. The Dead Sea is a transboundary resource shared by Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Jordan. The Dead Sea is the terminal point of the Jordan River watershed and as such, it serves as a barometer for the health of the overall system. Its rapid decline reflects the present water management strategies of the riparian and upstream countries. This includes the different water cultures of the three countries. Throughout history, the Dead Sea basin has served as a source of refuge and inspiration for followers of Judaism, Christianity and Islam. Today, the religious significance of the Dead Sea is being overshadowed by its rapid disappearance. This may be explained in part by the water cultures of the three countries that influence water policy in the region. Ideology, together with culture and tradition, such as that of Zionism in Israel, has played a central role in water development in the region. In many cases, this has been at the expense of the environment. Elements pertaining to environmental security and water culture and tradition, whereby a sustainably managed environment provides for social, economic as well as environmental benefits are evident with regards the Dead Sea. The decline for example, undermines its potential as a tourist destination, despite the enormous investment in hotel and resort infrastructures in Israel and in Jordan. The decline also raises ethical issues about the exploitation of water resources by present generations at the expense of this natural heritage to future generations. This paper provides an analysis of a European Union funded project whose aims are to synthesize and assess existing physical and socio-economic data and to assess options for a better future for the Dead Sea. It will identify the patterns of water supply and use in the region, and the factors that control these patterns, including those of water culture. The underlying assumption is that solutions for a more sustainable development than todays scenario will not come from simply providing more water for more development, but from a new land and water management system, indeed ethic, that is sensitive to social, cultural and ecological resources thereby providing security and stability across cultures, economic sectors and nations