Hispanic Citizenship, Registration, and Voting Patterns in Comparative Perspective During the 2000 Presidential Elections

Introduction: This study examines citizenship, registration, and voting patterns of Latinos during the 2000 presidential elections. Methods: Data on Latinos and other racial/ethnic groups were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, reorganized for public use by the Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, IPUMSusa. Cases in the dataset were weighted and analyzed to produce population estimates. Results: The participation rates among potential Hispanic voters who were citizens of the U.S. 18 years of age and older were the lowest of any of the major racial/ethnic groups in the nation during the 2000 presidential elections as well as in the 2002 congressional elections. The results of the 2004 elections may very well have hinged upon whether or not these rates declined, remained the same, or increased. This study will focus upon the ten states with the largest potential Hispanic voting populations, citizens over 18 years of age, which accounted for nearly 85% of all voting age Hispanics in 2000. Discussion: In critical states which shaped the outcome of the 2000 presidential elections such as Florida, New Mexico, and Colorado, a higher Hispanic registration and voting rate could have changed the results of the election. When they are released, the data for the 2004 election will be interesting to observe for comparative purposes in light of the fact that the Republican presidential candidate is estimated to have received 43% of the total Hispanic vote. These votes may have been the decisive margin of George W. Bush’s victory in the three above states

The Changing Demographics of Florida’s Latino Electorate: Latino Party Affiliation and Voter Registration Rates in the State, Central Florida, and South Florida

Introduction: This special report in partnership with CNN en Espanol examines characteristics of Florida -- where the Latino electorate could very well determine victory in the 2016 presidential election. Methods: Data were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau, Voting and Registration, as a part of the Current Population Survey data from the November Voter Supplements. The 2016 estimates were derived by using the yearly percentage rate of increase between 2004 and 2012. Additional data were derived from an analysis of the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) American Community Survey (ACS). Results: The Latino population of Florida soared between 1990 and 2014 according to the most recent census data for 2014 and currently comprises 25% of the state’s population and 19% of its electorate. Latinos in Florida had higher registration and voting rates than national averages among Latinos. In 2012 72% of Florida’s Latino electorate, potential voters who were citizens 18 years of age and older, were registered to vote compared with a national average of about 59%. CLACLS projects that about 75% of Florida’s Latino electorate will be registered to vote in the 2016 presidential election based on past rates of increase. CLACLS projects that about 64% of all eligible Latino voters will cast ballots in November 2016. The national average among Latinos has been about 48% in every presidential election since 1992. CLACLS projects that Latinos in Florida will account for 20% of all votes cast in Florida in November 2016 making them a decisive force in the outcome of the election in the state. Discussion: Pundits and political operatives would be wise to take notice of these trends. Florida is widely recognized as a key presidential swing state, but little attention has been given to the dramatic demographic transformation it has witnessed between 1990 and 2014. An examination of voter registration rolls reveals a clear shift away from the Republican Party since 2006, and this trend seems to be growing. For years, Florida’s Latino electorate was traditionally defined by the “Cuban vote.” But this is no longer the case. With the arrival of Puerto Ricans, Central Americans, and South Americans of various nationalities, the Cuban population has declined as a percentage of Florida’s total population, electorate, and voters. For the 2016 presidential election, over 70% of the state’s Latino electorate will be non-Cuban. In a close national election, Florida’s Latino voters could well determine who wins the White House in 2016

The Latino Population of New York City, 2006

Introduction: This report examines demographic and socioeconomic factors concerning New York City based Latinos in 2006. Methods: Data on Latinos and other racial/ethnic groups were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, reorganized for public use by the Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, IPUMSusa. Cases in the dataset were weighted and analyzed to produce population estimates. Results: New York City’s Latino population increased by 2.6% between 2005 and 2006. The 2006 data underscore the significant transformations that have been occurring within the Latino population of New York City since the end of large-scale Puerto Rican migration in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Dominicans arrived in increasing numbers from 1980 onward and are poised to become the City’s largest Latino nationality within the next 10 years as the Puerto Rican population continues to decline. While migration from the Dominican Republic slowed after 2000 there is evidence of a possible renewed migratory flow to the city since the number of foreign-born Dominicans rose significantly from 2005 to 2006. Among Dominicans there has been a shift away from the previous matrix of Dominican settlement in Washington Heights toward the Bronx where the majority of Dominicans now reside. Discussion: The City’s Mexican population continues its extraordinary expansion both because of high fertility rates and the arrival of large numbers of foreign-born Mexicans. If these trends continue into the future Mexicans will become the largest of the Latino sub-groups within the next two decades. Ecuadorians continue to increase in significant numbers but the role of migration in the expansion of the City’s Ecuadorian population has slowed considerably as the foreign-born account for a, significant, yet continually decreasing portion of population growth. For the first time since the arrival of large numbers of Colombians in the 1980s, the Colombian population of the city declined between 2005 and 2006. It is clear that migration from Colombia has slowed to near insignificance statistically, and that the Colombian-origin population of the city in the future will be increasingly composed of domestic-born Colombians

Changes in Income Distribution Patterns, Wealth, And Poverty Among New York City’s Racial/Ethnic Groups Between 1999 and 2004

Introduction: This study examines demographic and socioeconomic aspects of the Latino population of the New York City area between 1999 and 2004. Methods: Data on Latinos and other racial/ethnic groups were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, reorganized for public use by the Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, IPUMSusa. Cases in the dataset were weighted and analyzed to produce population estimates. Results: The most striking differential when household income patters are examined is that among Latino households there was almost no increase in median household income between 1999 and 2004. Among whites, African Americans, and Asians there were significant increases in median household income over this 5-year period. When household income distribution patterns are examined between 1999 and 2004 Latino households not only had the highest percentage of the four principal racial/ethnic earning under $30,000 annually – over 50$30,000 annually, as well as an increase in those households earning more than $50,000 annually. Latinos had the smallest proportion of households in the city earning more than$50,000 annually in 1999 and 2004 and also there was no significant increase in the percentage of Latino households in this income category between these years. Discussion: While Latinos continue to make up the poorest sectors of New York City’s population, it ould be emphasized that they are not homogenous either from the perspectives of national origins or income distribution structures. However, it should be noted that while poverty and low household or family incomes continue to plague a good portion of the Latino community, there was also clear evidence of wealth and middle income sectors of significant proportions and a marked degree of social stratification. Over one-quarter of all Latino families and households earned over $50,000 annually

CENSUS 2000: The Latino Population and the Transformation of Metropolitan New York

Introduction: This study examines demographic and socioeconomic aspects of the Latino population of the New York City area according to the 2000 census. Methods: Data on Latinos and other racial/ethnic groups were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, reorganized for public use by the Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, IPUMSusa. Cases in the dataset were weighted and analyzed to produce population estimates. Results: New York City’s Latino population increased from 23.7% of all New Yorkers in 1990 to 27% in 2000. If growth rates between 1990 and 2000 continue for the remainder of the decade, Latinos will make up over 30% of the total NYC population in 2010. There was a significant relative decline of the City’s Puerto Rican population as a percentage of all Latinos from 49.5% in 1990 to 37.6% in 2000, because of a slight drop in the total number of Puerto Ricans and the growth of other Latino nationalities. The Dominican population increased numerically and as a percentage of all Latinos from 19.1% in 1990 to 24.7% in 2000. If this trend continues by 2010 Dominicans may become the City’s largest national Latino group. Mexicans were the fastest growing Latino national group between 1990 and 2000. If Mexican growth rates continue, not a certainty because of possible changes in migration patterns both from Mexico and within the U.S., Mexicans may challenge Dominicans and Puerto Ricans as the most numerous nationality. Discussion: The Latino population of New York City continues to grow at an exponential rate

Mexicans in New York City, 1990 - 2005

Introduction: This study examines demographic and socioeconomic aspects of the Mexican population of the New York City area from 1990-2005. Methods: Data on Latinos and other racial/ethnic groups were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, reorganized for public use by the Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, IPUMSusa. Cases in the dataset were weighted and analyzed to produce population estimates. Results: The Mexican-origin population of New York City was the city’s fastest-growing Latino national group between 1990 and 2005. From a population of 55,587 in 1990 Mexicans increased to 183,792 in 2000 and 227,842 in 2005.1 By 2005 Mexicans had become the third largest Latino nationality in NYC behind Puerto Ricans (790,609) and Dominicans (570,641). The yearly growth rate between 1990 and 2000 among Mexicans was 12.7% although this slowed to 4.4% between 2000 and 2005.The Dominican population of NYC increased at 1.4% yearly between 2000 and 2005 and the Puerto Rican population experienced their first decline ever, falling slightly by - 0.2% annually over the same period. Mexicans were a highly stratified Latino national group and in this sense were no different from other Latino nationalities. About 20% of all households earned less than $20,000 annually over the 15 year period measured in this report. At the top of the social hierarchy there was an increase in the percentage of Mexican households earning more than$75,000 annually and this is indicative of opportunities for upward social mobility within NYC for better educated and better skilled Mexicans. Discussion: Work force data suggest two significant differences between Mexicans and other Latino nationalities in the City. The first is an extraordinarily higher percentage of men who were employed in 2005 and a correspondingly low percentage of men who were employed or out of the work force. The second is the comparative low rates of low both unemployed working-age Mexican females who were working in 2005 compared with women in other Latino national groups. As indicated above, this may have been due to child-rearing responsibilities connected to the extraordinarily high birth rates found among Mexican females in comparative perspective

The Latino Voter Registration Dilemma

This special report in partnership with CNN en Espanol examined changes in the Latino electorate, registered voters, and voters in the U.S. and key swing states between 1992 and 2016. Methods: Data were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau, Voting and Registration, as a part of the Current Population Survey data from the November Voter Supplements. The 2016 estimates were derived by using the yearly percentage rate of increase between 2004 and 2012. Results: The absolute number of Latinos eligible to vote, registered, and who voted grew dramatically. Yet the rates of Latino voter registration were almost exactly the same in 1992 (58.5%) and 2012 (58.7%). About 48.4% of the Latino electorate voted in 1992 and 48.0% voted in 2012. However, once registered to vote, Latinos vote at high rates—among registered Latinos 82.5% voted in 1992 and 81.7% in 2012. The data indicate that age and sex are also key factors. Discussion: Despite the fact that the Latino population of the United States has increased meteorically since the 1992 presidential elections, Latinos have not exerted their potential political influence because of relatively low voter registration rates. These data suggest that the problem facing Latino political, civic, religious, and other community organizations is not a traditional “get out the vote” campaign. Rather “get out the registration” drives may be the more useful activity to increase Latinos’ influence. Doing so will require efforts to inform Latinos of registration dates, locations, and rules; and to make those resources available in Spanish and English

Have Dominicans Surpassed Puerto Ricans to Become New York City’s Largest Latino Nationality? An Analysis of Latino Population Data from the 2013 American Community Survey for New York City and the Metropolitan Area

Introduction: This study examines three data sets from the recently released American Community Survey (ACS) of 2013 to estimate the population sizes of the largest Latino national sub groups in New York City and in the City’s surrounding counties. Methods: Data on Latinos and other racial/ethnic groups were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, reorganized for public use by the Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, IPUMSusa. Cases in the dataset were weighted and analyzed to produce population estimates. Results: The data released by IPUMS in November 2014 from American Community Survey for 2013, and analyzed here, suggest a major shift in the composition of New York City’s Latino population. They indicate that Dominicans may have surpassed Puerto Ricans as the most numerous Latino national sub-group. Based on these PUMS data CLACLS has estimated that the Dominican population in 2013 numbered 747,473 compared with the City’s 719,444 Puerto Ricans.7 Data from the Census Bureau’s HISPAND variable and the CLACLS generated LATINOS variable on the City’s five largest Latino nationalities are presented within. Discussion: If anything this examination of the three 2013 American Community Survey data sets indicates the difficulty of arriving at precise population estimates for subgroups of the population, such as Latino nationalities, in smaller geographical areas such as New York City and its surrounding counties. The surge in the Dominican population and the decline of the Puerto Rican population is part of a longer-term trend which began during the 1990s when the number of Puerto Ricans in the City began to decrease while Dominican migration increased significantly. IPUMS ACS data for each census year from 1990 through 2013 analyzed by CLACLS using the same methodology described previously indicate this very clearly

Demographic, Economic and Social Transformations in the Mexican-Origin Population of the New York City Metropolitan Area, 1990 - 2010

Introduction: This report examines demographic and socioeconomic factors concerning the Mexican population of New York City Metro Area between 1990 and 2010. Methods: Data on Latinos and other racial/ethnic groups were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, reorganized for public use by the Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, IPUMSusa. Cases in the dataset were weighted and analyzed to produce population estimates. Results: The demographic structure of the region’s Mexican community (over 600,000 in 2010) was in large part determined by the arrival of over 250,000 foreign-born Mexicans between 1990 and 2010. These migrants were generally working age, male (nearly 60%) with low levels of educational attainment, and low skill levels for entry into the local labor force. Mexican women in the region had comparatively higher fertility and birth rates than any other Latino nationality, and Mexicans had the fastest rate of demographic growth because of these high birth rates combined with large-scale immigration. Mexicans were the only major Latino nationality experiencing declining median household incomes in inflation adjusted dollars from 1990 ($62,700) to 2010 ($51,250). In large part this was related to the increase in lower paid female household heads from 25% of all Mexican households in 1990 to 38% in 2010. Discussion: Every demographic, social, and economic indicator considered in this report was heavily influenced by the arrival of large numbers of foreign-born Mexicans to the region after 1990. It may be observed that these migrants were fairly young, had low levels of educational attainment, were generally devoid of skills which could afford them entry into higher-paying occupations, had little knowledge of English, and were intent on finding work in any occupation in order to improve their lives and the situations of their families. There was a clear work ethic among Mexicans arriving in the region after 1990 and before, and this paved the way for better conditions for their children, although it may take some time before these improvements may be measured quantitatively

Mexicans in New York City, 2007: An Update

Introduction: This report examines the Mexican population of New York City in 2007. Methods: Data on Latinos and other racial/ethnic groups were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, reorganized for public use by the Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, IPUMSusa. Cases in the dataset were weighted and analyzed to produce population estimates. Results: The Mexican-origin population of New York City continued its extraordinary growth between 2005 and 2007 increasing by just over 27%, from 227,842 to 289,755 persons according to American Community Survey data for 2007 released by the U.S. Census Bureau. From 2000, the Mexican population the City has risen by an extraordinary 57.7%. Mexican population expansion was fueled by continuing large-scale migration to New York City as well as extraordinarily high birth-rates among Mexican women already resident in the City. Discussion: The New York Mexican-origin community had the poorest developed English-language abilities of any of the Latino nationalities in 2007, as would be expected within a population heavily comprised of foreign-born migrants who arrived fairly recently. About 44% of the Mexican population 5 years of age and older reported not speaking English well or not at all. This compares to 38% of Ecuadorians; 32% of Dominicans; 27% of Colombians; 24% of Cubans; and 12% of Puerto Ricans. (See Figure 8). It may be anticipated that this will change as more Mexicans are born in the U.S. and the foreign-born gradually acquire better English language skills. A correlation between better English language abilities and higher median incomes has been fairly well established